{"id":38718,"date":"2015-04-28T12:48:46","date_gmt":"2015-04-28T09:48:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=38718"},"modified":"2015-04-28T12:48:46","modified_gmt":"2015-04-28T09:48:46","slug":"kose-yazisi-petrol-fiyati-ve-dovizin-degeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-petrol-fiyati-ve-dovizin-degeri\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: Petrol Fiyat\u0131 ve D\u00f6vizin De\u011feri…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek, kontrol\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7 iki \u00f6nemli veri var. Bunlar, d\u00fcnya enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler ile T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Her iki veri de ekonomimizin ne denli d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin tutturulabilmesi de (siyasi geli\u015fmeler ve \u00fclke riskimiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmedi\u011fi takdirde), bu fiyatlamalardaki geli\u015fime ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\"abd<\/a><\/p>\n

TCMB, Akbank, Bloomberg kaynaklar\u0131 esas al\u0131narak yap\u0131lan hesaplamalarda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferindeki her kal\u0131c\u0131 % 10 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon oran\u0131m\u0131za yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 oran\u0131nda etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol\u00fcn Brent fiyat\u0131ndaki her 10 ABD Dolar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f da enflasyon oran\u0131m\u0131za yakla\u015f\u0131k %0.5 oran\u0131nda etki yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Tabloda, petrol\u00fcn Brent varil fiyat\u0131 ve kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon oran\u0131m\u0131za yakla\u015f\u0131k nas\u0131l etki yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryo faizleri de belirliyor<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131daki tablo esas al\u0131n\u0131rsa, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fimiz faiz seviyelerini de tahmin edebiliriz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tahminler, bir gecelik (overnight) faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. 1 y\u0131l, 2 y\u0131l, 5 y\u0131l gibi bor\u00e7lanma faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 bulmak i\u00e7in, bu faizler \u00fczerine bir risk primi eklenmesi veya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Orta vadeli enflasyon beklentileri esas al\u0131n\u0131rsa, beklenen bir gecelik faizler tablodan izlenebilir:<\/p>\n

\"enflasyon222222\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Do\u011fal olarak, Merkez Bankam\u0131z t\u00fcm bu hesaplamalar\u0131 yap\u0131p; d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fmeleri, FED ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizdeki ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fme ve beklentileri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde tutarak, faizleri belirliyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k faiz oranlar\u0131 ve miktarlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 son politika kararlar\u0131 da yerinde oldu.<\/p>\n

Yerel ve global fakt\u00f6rler\u2026<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131\/TL kurunun belirlenmesinde, hem yerel hem de global fakt\u00f6rler rol oynuyor. Bir ay \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde, global fakt\u00f6rlerin kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemi y\u00fcksek iken; son d\u00f6nemde, yerel fakt\u00f6rlerin kur \u00fczerindeki etkisi artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yazan: Yaman T\u00f6r\u00fcner<\/p>\n

Haberin Devam\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z>>><\/a><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Milliyet<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek, kontrol\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7 iki \u00f6nemli veri var. Bunlar, d\u00fcnya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[22589,19545,22590,63,67,1009,2698,165,22591,59,79,8805,21372],"views":630,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38718"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38720,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38718\/revisions\/38720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}