{"id":3790,"date":"2012-11-23T10:47:43","date_gmt":"2012-11-23T07:47:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=3790"},"modified":"2012-11-23T10:47:57","modified_gmt":"2012-11-23T07:47:57","slug":"petrol-ve-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrol-ve-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrol ve Sonras\u0131…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bizi ko\u015fa ko\u015fa sadece ekonomik krizlere de\u011fil, \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi facias\u0131na do\u011fru da g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ama bu tehlikelerin hepsi asl\u0131nda bizi daha iyi, temiz ve adil bir d\u00fcnya kurgulamaya da y\u00f6neltebilir mi? Yenilenebilir enerji \u00fcretimi, fosil yak\u0131ts\u0131z ekolojik tar\u0131m ve 3. Sanayi Devrimi, \u00e7ok uzakta olmayabilir.<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 2 santigrat derecelik e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in sera gazlar\u0131 emisyonunu her y\u0131l 8 milyar ton azaltmas\u0131 gerekiyor. K\u00e2bus se\u00adnaryolar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekten de hayli iddial\u0131 bir hedef! Zira istatistikler, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n son 125 y\u0131lda t\u00fcketti\u011fi bir trilyon varil pet\u00adrol\u00fc, mevcut t\u00fcketim al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131 devam etti\u011fi takdirde sadece \u00f6n\u00fc\u00adm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde t\u00fcketece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan petrole dayal\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomi g\u00fcvende de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc pet\u00adrol \u00f6yle veya b\u00f6yle azal\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya bir s\u00fcredir petrol \u00fcretiminde ula\u00ad\u015f\u0131labilecek en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyi ifade eden petrol tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131n (Peak Oil) neresinde oldu\u011fumuzu tart\u0131\u00ad\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7ok say\u0131da uzman d\u00fcnyada petrol\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim d\u00fcze\u00adyine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve giderek daha az miktarda petrol \u00fcretimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015f\u00adtirilece\u011fi fikrinde. Bu, ucuz petrol d\u00f6neminin art\u0131k kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ener\u00adji fiyatlar\u0131nda olu\u015facak inan\u0131lmaz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tetikleyece\u011fi ekonomik krizlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmak anlam\u0131na ge\u00adliyor. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n, petrol \u00fcretimindeki s\u00fcrekli azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n da ekonominin gelece\u011fini tehdit etti\u011fi yak\u0131n gelecek \u00fczerinde kafa yormak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Bu ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gelecekte ya\u015fam\u0131n aksamadan de\u00advam edebilmesi i\u00e7in alternatif ener\u00adji kaynaklar\u0131yla ilgili ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 zorunlu yeni ya\u015fam bi\u00e7iminin dinamikleriyle ilgili senar\u00adyolar ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ekonomi\u00adnin in\u015fas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni model aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130nsano\u011flu ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u00adm\u00fcn e\u015fi\u011finde ve yak\u0131n gelecek bi\u00adzim bildi\u011fimize hi\u00e7 benzemeyecek.\"\"<\/p>\n

Peak Oil Nedir? <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cPetrol tepe noktas\u0131\u201d kavram\u0131n\u0131 ilk olarak ABD\u2019de Shell i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan jeolog M. King Hubbert 1956\u2019da ortaya att\u0131. Teori, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n \u00fcretiminin \u00e7an e\u011frisi grafi\u011fini izle\u00adyerek, ula\u015f\u0131lan zirve noktas\u0131ndan sonra giderek azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunu\u00adyor. ABD\u2019nin petrol ke\u015ffinde tepe noktas\u0131na 1930\u2019larda ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 y\u0131l sonra, 1970\u2019lerde petrol \u00fcretiminde bir zirve ya\u015fa\u00adyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011finde Hubbert\u2019le alay edilse de teorisi pop\u00fclerli\u011fini hi\u00e7 kaybetmedi. Bir\u00e7ok uzman bu modelin ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerde de do\u011f\u00adruland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. D\u00fcnya pet\u00adrol ke\u015ffinde ise zirve noktas\u0131n\u0131n 1960\u2019larda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi savunulu\u00adyor. Hubbert\u2019in form\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretimine uygulayan pek \u00e7ok uzmansa, d\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcretiminin 2000-2020 d\u00f6nemindeki bir tarihte en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 id\u00addia etti ve ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cBeyond Oil\u201d kitab\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131 Kenneth Def\u00adfeyes, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol tepe noktas\u0131\u00adn\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 74,2 milyon varille May\u0131s 2005\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyken, Almanya Enerji \u0130zleme Grubu\u2019nun 2007\u2019de yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir raporsa bu noktan\u0131n 2006\u2019da ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini sa\u00advunuyordu. Frans\u0131z petrol \u015firketi Total\u2019in CEO\u2019su Thierry Desma\u00adrest ise d\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 milyon varil \u00e7izgisini a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulunarak, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011frisinde kal\u0131rsak d\u00fcn\u00adyan\u0131n petrol tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rme\u00adyi 2020\u2019lere kadar erteleyebilece\u011fi tahmininde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme zaman\u0131 hakk\u0131nda, B\u00f6lgesel \u00c7evre Merkezi (REC) T\u00fcrkiye Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Kerem Okumu\u015f \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: \u201c\u00dcretim oran\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak geli\u015f\u00admeler hakk\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00adlar\u0131 var. Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve enerji kurulu\u015fu g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Peak Oil\u2019in 2005 ile 2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00ad\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yeni a\u00e7\u0131lan bir\u00e7ok petrol rezervinin bo\u015f olmas\u0131, y\u00fcksek oranda petrol \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in verimsiz jeolojik yap\u0131ya sahip ol\u00admas\u0131, bulunan petrol\u00fcn karbon yo\u00ad\u011funlu\u011fundaki y\u00fckseklik nedeniyle i\u015fleme maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek, verim\u00adlili\u011finin ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc\u00adn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 ve petrol \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in derin deniz veya Arktik B\u00f6lgesi gibi y\u00fcksek risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc bar\u0131nd\u0131ran b\u00f6lgelerde sondaj \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ya\u00adp\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131 bunu do\u011frular nitelikte\u201d. Okumu\u015f, bug\u00fcn kuzey kutbunda eriyen buzullarla a\u00e7\u0131lan yeni sahalarda bulunan rezervlerin i\u015fletilmesi i\u00e7in Rusya, Norve\u00e7, Da\u00adnimarka, ABD ve Kanada aras\u0131nda\u00adki yeni petrol m\u00fccadelesine de de\u00ad\u011finiyor: \u201cBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Peak Oil\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme zaman\u0131 belirsiz. Tekno\u00adlojinin geli\u015fmesiyle daha \u00f6nce ula\u015f\u0131\u00adlamayan, rezervlerde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f petrol kaynaklar\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor, rezervler\u00adden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir petrol oran\u0131 art\u0131yor, rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan rezervler de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Petrol \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimine dair g\u00fcncel raporlar ve 2030\u2019lara giden projeksiyonlar petrol ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00adm\u0131z\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc OPEC\u2019in ra\u00adkamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ham petrol talebi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 86,7 milyon varil olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fe\u00adrek 2009 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2,8 ora\u00adn\u0131nda artt\u0131. OECD \u00fclkelerinin top\u00adlam talepteki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 53 olurken, ABD tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fcnya t\u00fcketiminin y\u00fczde 22\u2019sini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirerek, en yak\u0131n takip\u00e7isi olan \u00c7in\u2019in t\u00fcketimi\u00adnin iki kat\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Bununla birlik\u00adte ABD, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve Japonya gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin petrol t\u00fcke\u00adtimleri d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimindeyken, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ise t\u00fcketim miktar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreklilik kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ham petrol t\u00fcketiminde 2010 y\u0131\u00adl\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 2,39 milyon varillik t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u00ad\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 78\u2019inin OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcl\u00adkelerden kaynaklanmas\u0131 bunun en ciddi g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya petrol devlerinden BP\u2019nin \u201cEnerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030\u201d adl\u0131 raporu ise gelecekteki enerji kulla\u00adn\u0131m\u0131na dair ilgin\u00e7 veriler sunuyor. Rapora g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel enerji talebi, y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 yava\u015flamakla bir\u00adlikte, OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerdeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00adn\u0131n etkisiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131lda artmaya devam edecek. 1990\u2019da 8,1 milyar ton olan ve 2010\u2019da 12 mil\u00adyar tona y\u00fckselen enerji talebinin 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda 16,6 milyar tona \u00e7\u0131ka\u00adca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u00adki \u00fclkelerin hemen hemen hepsinde k\u00fcresel enerji talebinin 2030 y\u0131l\u0131 iti\u00adbariyle y\u00fczde 39 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131, yani y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fc\u00admesi muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, OECD \u00fclkelerindeki t\u00fcketimin ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam y\u00fczde 4 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

BP\u2019nin raporunda umut veren tah\u00adminse enerji verimlili\u011finde art\u0131\u015f ve yenilenebilir enerjide g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fc\u00ady\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor olmas\u0131. Yenile\u00adnebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla fosil yak\u0131tlara olan talepten \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek olmas\u0131 da iyi bir teselli. Ancak bu olumlu sa\u00ady\u0131labilecek geli\u015fme 2030\u2019lu y\u0131llarda da fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n enerji talebinde yine ba\u015frol\u00fc oynamaya devam ede\u00adce\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor: 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda fosil yak\u0131tlara olan talep bug\u00fcne g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6 d\u00fc\u015fecek olsa da k\u00fcresel enerji talebinin y\u00fczde 81\u2019ini olu\u015fturacak. G\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol talebi ise 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda, 2010\u2019a g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 18 art\u0131\u015fla 103 milyon varile ula\u015facak.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 ise 2035\u2019te petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolara (2010 kuruna g\u00f6re) \u00e7\u0131ka\u00adca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Ancak kuru\u00admun ba\u015fekonomisti Fatih Birol pet\u00adrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n orta vadede 150 dolar seviyelerine gelebilece\u011finden de s\u00f6z ediyor. Okumu\u015f, petrol \u00fcretiminde\u00adki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve bunun etkisiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerin do\u011frudan etkilenece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: \u201c\u00dcretimin her a\u015famas\u0131n\u00adda ula\u015ft\u0131rma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla akaryak\u0131t ve gazolin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 etkile\u015fimler ne\u00addeniyle petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri bazl\u0131 \u00fcretimin devam etmesi halinde petrol \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ekono\u00adminin her sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7arpan etkisi y\u00fcksek olacak. Petrol, pamuk ve m\u0131s\u0131r gibi emtialarda piyasa riskinin artmas\u0131na da neden olacak.\u201d Denk\u00adlem a\u00e7\u0131k: Enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131 artacak, fosil kaynaklar uzun y\u0131llar temel enerji unsuru olarak kalacak ama artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ekonomiyi fazlas\u0131yla zorlayacak.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: ekoIQ<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bizi ko\u015fa ko\u015fa sadece ekonomik krizlere de\u011fil, \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi facias\u0131na do\u011fru da g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ama bu tehlikelerin hepsi asl\u0131nda bizi daha […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[1084,59,79],"views":671,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3790"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3790"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3790\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3793,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3790\/revisions\/3793"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}