{"id":36444,"date":"2015-02-17T09:37:18","date_gmt":"2015-02-17T06:37:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=36444"},"modified":"2015-02-17T09:53:41","modified_gmt":"2015-02-17T06:53:41","slug":"lisansli-ges-katki-paylarinin-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/lisansli-ges-katki-paylarinin-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Lisansl\u0131 GES Katk\u0131 Paylar\u0131n\u0131n Analizi…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

GES ihalelerinde 2. ve 3. b\u00f6lgelerin de ihaleleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 350.000$ \u2013 450.000$ band\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131l\u0131p 1.000.000$\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihaleler dahi oldu. Peki bu ihalelerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten yat\u0131r\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilecek mi ?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6nce firmalar\u0131n verdi\u011fi teklifleri basitce analiz edelim. Baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m kriterler \u015f\u00f6yle;<\/p>\n

1) Firmalar\u0131 dolar bazl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli bor\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131yorum. Burada kurdan kaynakl\u0131 gelir art\u0131\u015f veya kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyorum lakin %10 TL bor\u00e7lanmaya k\u0131yasla \"teias-ges-yarisma-gunes-enerjisi-on-lisans-ihaleleri\"<\/a>%4 gibi bir Dolar bor\u00e7lanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Burada \u00f6z sermayesi \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc firmalar Dolar eskalasyonu riskini avantaj\u0131na \u00e7evirmek istah\u0131yla TL\u2019de bor\u00e7lanabilirler. Ben risksiz \u015fekilde ilerlemeyi tercih ettim.<\/p>\n

2) Yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetlerini baz MW i\u00e7in 0,75\u20ac\/Wp seviyesinde tutuyorum. Art\u0131k bu rakamlar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 entegrat\u00f6rler i\u00e7in m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Lakin 0,65\u20ac\/Wp\u2019in alt\u0131na hen\u00fcz d\u00fc\u015febileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. 1 sene \u00f6nesine g\u00f6re konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz 1,00\u20ac\/Wp\u2019in de alt\u0131nday\u0131z art\u0131k.<\/p>\n

3) Her ne kadar \u00f6demeler YEKDEM fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de bu fiyatlarda da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015firketlerinin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 24TL\/MWh gibi bir pay var. Lisansl\u0131 santrallerde de bu rakam iletim bedeli olacakt\u0131r. SKB bedelleri detay\u0131na http:\/\/www.epdk.gov.tr\/index.php\/elektrik-piyasasi\/tarifeler?id=71 adresinde ula\u015fabilirsiniz. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 4$ gibi MWh ba\u015f\u0131na ekstra bir SKB gideri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum o sebeple 133$ yerine 129$\u2019\u0131 baz al\u0131yorum (Lisanss\u0131z GES\u2019de bu de\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131k 124$). YEKDEM bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere 10 Y\u0131l ge\u00e7erli. O sebeple 10 y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k PMUM (EP\u0130A\u015e) MWh fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ise 80$ olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Bu da yine kendini g\u00fcvene alan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n

4) \u00dcretimin 1.650MWh\/MWp olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Bu de\u011ferin \u00fcst\u00fcnde yap\u0131lan pek \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6rd\u00fcm lakin \u015fu anda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretimlerini izledi\u011fim yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 farkl\u0131 santral mevcut. Hi\u00e7birinde bu de\u011ferin \u00fczerinde bir de\u011fer g\u00f6rmedim. O sebeple 1.650MWh\/MWp asl\u0131nda \u201cG\u00fcvenli\u201d bir de\u011fer olmaktan ziyade ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir de\u011fer. 1.650 \u00fczeri de\u011fer benim i\u00e7in P25 s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131na haizler; yani \u201cYa tutarsa\u201d.<\/p>\n

5) Bu sistemlerin finanse edilip edilemeyeceklerine bakmak i\u00e7in de DSCR oranlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanaca\u011f\u0131m. Hatta yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcresi boyunca nakit enjekte etmesine izin verece\u011fim.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi gelelim fizibilite ne diyor;<\/p>\n

\"GES<\/a><\/p>\n

Buradaki temel \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde santralin devreye al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131. Her \u00f6deme kalemi i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 kredi \u00e7ekilece\u011fi ve \u00f6deme periyotlar\u0131n\u0131n ona g\u00f6re d\u00fczenlenece\u011fi. MWp maliyetinin de yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 750.000\u20ac olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

\"GES<\/a><\/p>\n

Grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 2M$ bir gelirimiz var lakin ilk sene santral \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor ama baz\u0131 giderlerimiz devreye girmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u0130lk sene ekipmanlar\u0131n nakit finansman\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda lisans bedelini de k\u0131smi olarak \u00f6d\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

DSCR kriterini uygulayarak %75 kald\u0131ra\u00e7 ile yap\u0131lan finansman \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda ikinci y\u0131l\u0131n VAF\u00d6K (EBITDA) de\u011ferine bakacak olursak masraflar ve nakit lisans bedeli \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 1.218k$ kalmakta. Finansmana \u00f6denecek 1.144$ sonras\u0131 ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya kalan nakit 144k$. \u0130kinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senelerde lisans bedelinin taksitlerinin ve nakit \u00f6demelerinin de devreye girmesi ile sisteme ekstra 775.000$ enjekte etmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131za bir bakal\u0131m<\/p>\n

\"GES<\/a><\/p>\n

Grafikte kolayl\u0131kla lisans bedel \u00f6demelerini ve ilk yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetini g\u00f6rebilirsiniz. Turuncu \u00e7izgi yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z para toplam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. X eksenini kesti\u011fi nokta art\u0131k +\u2019ya ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz nokta. Ama dikkat edin edin 2025\u2019den sonra MWh fiyat\u0131m\u0131z PMUM\u2019a ge\u00e7iyor ve 80$\u2019dan sat\u0131\u015fa ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. 2026 da ise banka \u00f6demelerimiz bitti\u011fi i\u00e7in nihayetinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n eline nakit ge\u00e7meye ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Her ne kadar artan dolar ve d\u00fc\u015fen PV maliyetleri fizibilitemizde olumlu etki yaratsa da Lisans yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u201cnormal\u201d ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de karl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda koydu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k 5M$\u2019\u0131 ancak 15 sene sonra s\u0131f\u0131rlayabiliyor. E\u011fer 5M$\u2019\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4\u2019ten faize yat\u0131rsayd\u0131k 25 y\u0131l sonra 13,6M$ ediyor. GES yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndan ise 25 y\u0131lda elimize ge\u00e7ecek olan tutar sadece 11M$. 25 y\u0131la kim \u00f6le kim kala\u00a0\":)\"<\/p>\n

Bu hususta fizibiliteyi daha da detayland\u0131rmak istemiyorum zira \u00e7izece\u011fimiz senaryolar pek farkl\u0131 olamayacakt\u0131r. Destekleme mekanizmas\u0131 10 y\u0131l olan bir yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in minimum 15 y\u0131ll\u0131k geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumday\u0131z (ki kamula\u015ft\u0131rma, gecikme v.s. gibi maliyetler de dahil de\u011fil \u00fcstelik).<\/p>\n

Bu yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in bu katk\u0131 paylar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyen firmalar\u0131n ya bilin\u00e7sizce hareket etti\u011fini, ya gurur meselesi haline getirdi\u011fini ya da ellerinde nakiti nereye koyacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemedikleri i\u00e7in bu yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Di\u011fer RES bedellerinden farkl\u0131 olarak \u00fcretime binaen de\u011fil; ge\u00e7ici kabul yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra 3 sene i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6denecek lisans katk\u0131 pay\u0131. Katk\u0131 pay\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131nan banka teminat\u0131n\u0131n da masraf\u0131 cabas\u0131. E\u011fer kabul edilmeyen bir sebep ile bu i\u015ften \u00e7ekilirse firma teminat mektubu irad kaydedilecek. Bu asl\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin i\u015fine gelen bir durum, daha fazla tahsilat demek. Heralde yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yast\u0131k alt\u0131 paras\u0131n\u0131 biz bi alal\u0131m, sonras\u0131n\u0131 onlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcns\u00fcn demek bu zira y\u0131llard\u0131r beklenen ihaleler bunlar.<\/p>\n

\u015eunu da ayr\u0131ca belirtmek isterim; e\u011fer MWp ba\u015f\u0131na kapasite bedeli verilmeseydi ve firma sadece PMUM\u2019a sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirseydi (YEKDEM olmasayd\u0131 yani) IRR de\u011ferleri bu fiyatlarda %12\u2019leri zorlard\u0131 ve \u00e7ok daha kolayl\u0131kla finanse edilebilirdi. Evet bir te\u015fvik s\u00f6z konusu lakin ben bu te\u015fvik mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cEnerji yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201d konusunda faydal\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Ama\u00e7 enerji \u00fcretmekse bence YEKDEM kald\u0131r\u0131ls\u0131n, herkes piyasa oyuncusu olsun, GES lisanslar\u0131 bilabedel verilsin. Do\u011falgaz\u2019a \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz paradan azalan tutar buradaki katk\u0131 paylar\u0131n\u0131 kat be kat ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0Or\u00e7un Ba\u015flak<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. GES ihalelerinde 2. ve 3. b\u00f6lgelerin de ihaleleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 350.000$ \u2013 450.000$ band\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131l\u0131p 1.000.000$\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihaleler dahi oldu. Peki bu ihalelerin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36445,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[1010,21429,13,21430,3570,8275],"views":1776,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36444"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36444"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36444\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36458,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36444\/revisions\/36458"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}