{"id":36142,"date":"2015-02-06T11:04:03","date_gmt":"2015-02-06T08:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=36142"},"modified":"2015-02-06T11:04:03","modified_gmt":"2015-02-06T08:04:03","slug":"kose-yazisi-petrol-ucuzlayinca-kuresel-buyume-yavasladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-petrol-ucuzlayinca-kuresel-buyume-yavasladi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: Petrol Ucuzlay\u0131nca K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Yava\u015flad\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde biz burada manas\u0131z tart\u0131\u015fmalarla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131rken, IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize etti. Ekim ay\u0131nda IMF\u2019nin 2015 i\u00e7in tahmini, y\u00fczde 3,8 civar\u0131nda bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ortalamas\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi bu oran y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019e revize edildi.<\/span>\u00a0Ekimde petrol fiyat\u0131 rakam\u0131 99 dolard\u0131. \u015eimdi bu yeni tahmin, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 67 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 ile yap\u0131ld\u0131. Peki ne oldu?<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle olmayacakt\u0131 ama oldu i\u015fte. Ne denmi\u015fti? \u201cPetrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, b\u00fcy\u00fcme artar.\u201d Ama bak\u0131n \u00f6yle de\u011filmi\u015f. Petrol fiyat\u0131 yava\u015flay\u0131nca, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6yle art\u0131vermeyebilirmi\u015f. \u015eimdi bu durumda, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile il\"kose-yazisi-petrol-ucuzlayinca-kuresel-buyume-yavasladi\"<\/a>gili di\u011fer s\u00f6ylenenler de yanl\u0131\u015f olabilir mi? Ne bileyim? Ortada bunlardan mebzul miktarda var. \u201cFaiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, b\u00fcy\u00fcme artar\u201d, \u201cFaiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, herkes yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar\u201d, \u201cPetrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131r\u201d filan gibi pek \u00e7ok \u00f6rnek var T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de do\u011frusu. Ben bunlardan en \u00e7ok, \u201cBak\u0131n Almanya\u2019n\u0131n faiz oran\u0131na, bizimki neden bu kadar y\u00fcksek?\u201d diye ba\u015flayan\u0131n\u0131 seviyorum. Gelin bir anlatay\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde biz burada manas\u0131z tart\u0131\u015fmalarla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131rken, IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize etti. Ekim ay\u0131nda IMF\u2019nin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in tahmini, y\u00fczde 3,8 civar\u0131nda bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ortalamas\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi bu oran y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019e revize edildi. Ekim ay\u0131nda d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini verilirken, modele d\u00e2hil edilen petrol fiyat\u0131 rakam\u0131 99 dolard\u0131. \u015eimdi bu yeni tahmin, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 67 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 ile yap\u0131ld\u0131. Ne oldu? 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama petrol fiyat\u0131 beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 azalt\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi yava\u015flad\u0131. Tahminler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize edildi. Ama b\u00f6yle olmayacakt\u0131? Hani petrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce biz hepimiz h\u0131zla rahatlay\u0131p daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecektik? Miki Maus iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 bir ara b\u00fcy\u00fck bir i\u015ftiyakla b\u00f6yle diyorlard\u0131. Ama olmad\u0131. IMF, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini revize etti\u011fi notunda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecinin tek parametreye indirgenemeyecek \u00e7ok boyutlu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Nedir bu \u015fimdi? Yeni bir k\u00fcresel sald\u0131r\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda m\u0131y\u0131z? Yok can\u0131m. Lenin, \u201cHayat\u0131n renklili\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda her t\u00fcr teorinin nas\u0131l gri kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d y\u0131llar \u00f6nce yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ben ortada olan\u0131n buna benzedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hayat\u0131n renklili\u011fi, \u00e7ok boyutlulu\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, tek parametre ile analiz yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir. Yoksa kendinizi kollamak i\u00e7in, komplo teorilerinden ba\u015fka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu kalm\u0131yor do\u011frusu.<\/p>\n

Ben petrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme nas\u0131l azal\u0131yor diye tahminlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklere \u015f\u00f6yle bir bakt\u0131m. Birincisi, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, IMF analizinde y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019den, y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019ya revize edilmi\u015f. Ne olmu\u015f? Amerika, Ekim ay\u0131nda beklenenden daha iyi b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekmi\u015f. \u0130kincisi, bu tahmin de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile birlikte, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3,8\u2019den y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019e revize edildi. Ne oldu? Amerikan b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru revize edilirken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ninki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize edilmi\u015f ve bir nevi birbirine e\u015fitlenmi\u015f oldu. T\u00fcrkiye yukar\u0131dan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya, Amerika a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan yukar\u0131ya. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 b\u00f6ylece Amerikan b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine yak\u0131nsam\u0131\u015f oldu. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Rusya, Suudi Arabistan, Nijerya, Brezilya hep a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize edildiler. Bunlar\u0131n hepsi de petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeler. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda, jeopolitik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n da etkisiyle Ekim\u2019deki y\u00fczde 0,5 yerine Ocak ay\u0131 revizyonunda y\u00fczde -3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. S\u00f6z konusu olan k\u00fclliyetli bir gerileme do\u011frusu. Ayn\u0131 durum Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi. Ne oluyor? Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Genel resim b\u00f6yle. Amerika\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru, Avrupa\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fen bir \u015fey yok ve kalan yerlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize edilmi\u015f gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n

Haberin Devam\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>>><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Radikal<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde biz burada manas\u0131z tart\u0131\u015fmalarla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131rken, IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru revize etti. Ekim ay\u0131nda IMF\u2019nin 2015 i\u00e7in tahmini, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[1927,1575,63,67,1009,2698,165,10084,17453,6634,59,79,8805,21255,885,1463],"views":521,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36142"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36144,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36142\/revisions\/36144"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}