{"id":34870,"date":"2014-12-29T11:28:43","date_gmt":"2014-12-29T08:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34870"},"modified":"2014-12-29T11:30:15","modified_gmt":"2014-12-29T08:30:15","slug":"2019a-kadar-orta-vadeli-eeg-yenilenebilir-enerji-kanunu-elektrik-arzi-tahmini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/2019a-kadar-orta-vadeli-eeg-yenilenebilir-enerji-kanunu-elektrik-arzi-tahmini\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) 2019\u2019a Kadar Yenilenebilir Enerji Kanunu Elektrik Arz\u0131 Tahmini&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-en\">Sorry, this entry is only available in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34870\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-tr\" title=\"Turkish\">Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p><p><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2015\u2019den 2019\u2019a kadarki Orta Vadeli EEG-Elektrik Arz Tahmini, 2014 ortas\u0131na kadar olan verilere dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu Projeksiyon, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini olarak 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar olan geli\u015fimi ayl\u0131k bazda \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo halinde(B\u00f6l. 2) ve orta vadeli tahmin olarak 2016\u2019dan 2019\u2019a kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo halinde(B\u00f6l. 3) i\u00e7erir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Kurulu kapasitenin ve elektrik \u00fcretiminin geli\u015fimi tahmin edilmektedir. Ard\u0131ndan, \u00fcretilen elektrik, olas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imleri ile ili\u015fkilendirilir (sabit tarifeler, piyasa primi olan ve olmayan do\u011frudan pazarlama). \u201csabit tarife\u201d ve \u201cFinanse edilen piyasa primli do\u011frudan pazarlama\u201d sat\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imleri i\u00e7in ayr\u0131ca \u00f6demeler de tahmin edilmektedir.<span id=\"more-69425\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Esaslar<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Tahmin i\u00e7in genellikle EEG\u2019nin \u00f6nceki kurallar\u0131na g\u00f6re i\u015fletmeye girmi\u015f ve giren tesisler ile EEG 2014\u2019\u00fcn uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tesisler birbirlerinden ayr\u0131l\u0131r.<br \/>\nT\u00fcm tahminler IE Leipzig taraf\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dakiler temelinde geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<li>\u0130letim sistemi operat\u00f6r\u00fc verileri,<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6nceki y\u0131llar\u0131n deneyimleri,<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcncel yay\u0131nlar ve<\/li>\n<li>Uzmanlarla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bunlar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca iyi g\u00fcncel piyasa durumu olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan Federal H\u00fck\u00fcmetin kalk\u0131nma hedeflerini otomatik olarak kar\u015f\u0131lamamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Senaryolar<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Uzman bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla en y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k ile olu\u015fan tahmin, Trend senaryosu olarak ifade edilir. 2015 i\u00e7in EEG tahsisat\u0131n\u0131n belirlenmesi b\u00fct\u00fcn enerji kaynaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in trend senaryoyu baz almaktad\u0131r. Buna ek olarak, di\u011fer senaryolar geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<li>B\u00f6l\u00fcm 2\u2019de g\u00f6sterilen 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini i\u00e7in, \u2013 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 bilinen verilerine dayal\u0131 \u2013 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar farkl\u0131 kurulu kapasite geli\u015fmeleri ve tam kullan\u0131m saatleri varsayan bir \u00fcst ve bir alt senaryo vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>B\u00f6l\u00fcm 3\u2019te g\u00f6sterilen 2016-2019 orta vadeli tahmini i\u00e7in de, 2015\u2019e kadar trend senaryoya dayal\u0131 ama 2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri i\u00e7eren bir \u00fcst ve bir alt senaryo da vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Be\u015f farkl\u0131 senaryoya genel bir bak\u0131\u015f \u015eekil 1\u2019de g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil1-yenilenebilir-enerji-arzi-tahmini-senaryolari.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69426\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil1-yenilenebilir-enerji-arzi-tahmini-senaryolari.jpg\" alt=\"sekil1-yenilenebilir enerji arzi tahmini senaryolari\" width=\"867\" height=\"434\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u015eekil 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Y\u0131ll\u0131k Tahmin Senaryolar\u0131 ve Orta Vadeli Tahmin Senaryolar\u0131<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Kapasite Geli\u015ftirme<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">R\u00fczgar enerjisi, Federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin geni\u015fleme yolunu takip etmeden \u00f6nce, karada yeni kapasite yap\u0131m\u0131yla 2014 ve 2015\u2019te yeni rekor de\u011fere ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Offshore r\u00fczgar enerjisinde 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f beklenmektedir, b\u00f6ylece Federal H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarki 6.500 MW hedefi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, biyoenerji ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi geli\u015fimi sert frenleme yapmaktad\u0131r, burada r\u00fczgar enerjisinin aksine, EEG art\u0131\u015f yoluna ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir. Hidroelektrik ve jeotermal enerji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede sadece biraz daha art\u0131yor. Gazlar (\u00e7\u00f6p gaz\u0131, at\u0131k gaz\u0131 ve metan gaz\u0131) i\u00e7in, bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131d\u0131r. Trend senaryodaki geli\u015fme \u015eekil 2\u2019de bulunabilir. G\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek performans\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi, ancak 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra tekrar karadaki r\u00fczgar enerjisinin taraf\u0131ndan gerisinde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil2-orta-vade-tahmin-biyokutle-cop-gazi-ruzgar-gunes.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69432\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil2-orta-vade-tahmin-biyokutle-cop-gazi-ruzgar-gunes.jpg\" alt=\"sekil2-orta vade tahmin biyokutle cop gazi ruzgar gunes\" width=\"841\" height=\"348\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u015eekil 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Trend Senaryodaki Kapasite Geli\u015fim Tahmini<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Elektrik \u00dcretimi ve Arz\u0131<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Elektrik Enerjisi \u00fcretimi kapasite geli\u015fiminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra tipik tam y\u00fck saatlerine de ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n yelpazesi dar iken y\u0131ll\u0131k verimin olas\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in hidroelektrik, kara ve offshore r\u00fczgar enerjisinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinde de senaryolar b\u00fcy\u00fck farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermektedir. Trend senaryodaki geli\u015fim \u015eekil 3\u2019te g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. 2013 ve 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici fiili de\u011ferler dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r, sonra da ayl\u0131k tipik tam y\u00fck saatleri. 2019\u2019a kadar g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinde PV\u2019den \u00fcretilen elektri\u011fin % 7\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki kendi t\u00fcketimi grafi\u011fe d\u00e2hil edilmemi\u015ftir. Ne olursa olsun elektrik \u00fcretimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kara r\u00fczgar enerjisi en \u00f6nemli enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam etmektedir, bunu biyok\u00fctle ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi takip etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil3-hidrolik-cop-atik-metan-gazi-biyokutle-jeotermal-karadaki-ruzgar-offshore-gunes.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69429\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil3-hidrolik-cop-atik-metan-gazi-biyokutle-jeotermal-karadaki-ruzgar-offshore-gunes.jpg\" alt=\"sekil3-hidrolik cop atik metan gazi biyokutle jeotermal karadaki ruzgar offshore gunes\" width=\"862\" height=\"359\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u015eekil 3:<\/strong>\u00a0Trend Senaryodaki Elektrik Arz\u0131 Tahmini<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Tarifeler<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">EEG 2014 taraf\u0131ndan getirilen s\u00fcbvansiyonlu do\u011frudan pazarlama y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (piyasa primi ile), 2019\u2019a kadar jeotermal ve offshore r\u00fczgar enerjisi hari\u00e7 tesis kapasitesinin az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen sadece yeni tesisleri etkilemektedir. Ayr\u0131ca 2015 sonuna kadar 500 kW\u2019a kadar ki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tesisler bu y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckten muaft\u0131r, daha sonra da 100 kW\u2019a kadar olanlar. Yine de, do\u011frudan pazarlama piyasa primi ile birlikte mevcut sistemlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir rol de oynamaktad\u0131r. Biyogaz tesislerinde ayr\u0131ca mevcut tesislerin i\u015fletmecilerinin esneklik primi talebi giderek artmaktad\u0131r. Bu talep ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasa primi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir, b\u00f6ylece di\u011fer enerji kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re mevcut biyok\u00fctle tesisleri kapsam\u0131nda piyasa primli do\u011frudan pazarlama daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc artar.<br \/>\nDaha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck mevcut tesisler i\u00e7in, sabit tarife en yayg\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f \u015feklidir. Di\u011fer do\u011frudan pazarlama nispeten \u00f6nemsiz kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u015eekil 4\u2019te g\u00f6sterilen toplam \u00f6deme tutar\u0131; sabit tarife \u00f6demelerini, piyasa primlerini, biyogaz tesisleri i\u00e7in esneklik primlerini ve kendi PV t\u00fcketimleri i\u00e7in tarifeleri i\u00e7erir. Ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lan \u015febeke kullan\u0131m \u00fccretleri zaten mahsup edilmi\u015ftir.<br \/>\nBu \u00f6demelerin tesis i\u015fletmecilerinin gelirini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r: Destekli do\u011frudan pazarlamadaki (piyasa primi ile birlikte) tesis operat\u00f6rleri \u2013g\u00f6sterilen toplamlara ilaveten\u2013 Borsada (EEX) kendi elektrik hacimlerini satarak gelir elde ederler, bunlar\u0131n hareketleri EEG tahsis mekanizmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu \u00f6demeler EEG-tahsisat\u0131n\u0131n hesaplanmas\u0131na d\u00e2hil edilmedi\u011finden, di\u011fer do\u011frudan pazarlama veya (Temmuz 2014 tarihine kadar) ye\u015fil elektrik ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelirleri de burada d\u00e2hil edilmemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">G\u00f6sterilen \u00f6demelerde, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi, y\u00fcksek \u00f6deme talebi bulunan eski tesislerin b\u00fcy\u00fck envanteri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck do\u011frudan pazarlama pay\u0131 nedeniyle 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda da 10 Milyar \u20ac\u2019dan fazla miktarla ilk s\u0131rada yer almaktad\u0131r, 6,6 milyar \u20ac ile biyok\u00fctle ve 5,8 milyar \u20ac ile karadaki r\u00fczgar enerjisi taraf\u0131ndan takip edilmektedir. Offshore r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3,9 milyar \u20ac ile d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131ray\u0131 elde etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil4-yenilenebilir-enerji-elektrik-tarifeleri.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69431\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekil4-yenilenebilir-enerji-elektrik-tarifeleri.jpg\" alt=\"sekil4-yenilenebilir enerji elektrik tarifeleri\" width=\"841\" height=\"353\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u015eekil 4:<\/strong>\u00a0Trend Senaryodaki Toplam Tarife \u00d6demeleri Tahmini<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: #000000;\"><p>Makelenin orjinalini\u00a0Almanca\u00a0olarak PDF format\u0131nda indirmek i\u00e7in\u00a0<a style=\"color: #c75615;\" title=\"pdf\" href=\"http:\/\/www.netztransparenz.de\/de\/file\/IE_2014-10-28_EEG-Mittelfristprognose-Internet.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Bu yaz\u0131 E\u0130GM D\u00fcnya Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 110. say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. 2015\u2019den 2019\u2019a kadarki Orta Vadeli EEG-Elektrik Arz Tahmini, 2014 ortas\u0131na kadar olan verilere dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu Projeksiyon, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini olarak 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34871,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[68,20486,20487,19590,19638,20488,63,3136,1009,9673],"views":810,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34870"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34870"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34870\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34874,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34870\/revisions\/34874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}