{"id":34751,"date":"2014-12-24T15:39:11","date_gmt":"2014-12-24T12:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34751"},"modified":"2014-12-24T15:39:11","modified_gmt":"2014-12-24T12:39:11","slug":"kose-yazisi-dusuk-petrol-ilave-buyume-saglayacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-dusuk-petrol-ilave-buyume-saglayacak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Petrol \u0130lave B\u00fcy\u00fcme Sa\u011flayacak!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

U\u011fur G\u00fcrses \/ Radikal<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, devam\u0131nda Rusya\u2019da rublenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile birlikte konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bir komplo kuram\u0131n ba\u011flan\u0131verdi hemen; \u2018ABD ve Suudi Arabistan, Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ekonomik olarak s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fcler\u2019.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl sonuna\"petrol-fiyat-89323\" g\u00f6re kabaca y\u00fczde 45\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Bunun her \u00fclkeye farkl\u0131 yans\u0131mas\u0131 olacak. Petrol geliri ile b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamas\u0131 yapan
\nRusya, Venezuela, Nijerya, \u0130ran gibi \u00fclkeler ekonomik olarak hem durgunlu\u011fa girecek, hem de paralar\u0131 de\u011fer kaybedecek, enflasyon getirecek. Ama hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fen petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerde hem enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fecek, hem de harcanabilir gelir artaca\u011f\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ilave katk\u0131s\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

IMF\u2019den Ba\u015f ekonomist Olivier Blanchard ve Rabah Arezki, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 blog yaz\u0131s\u0131 ile bunun etkilerini payla\u015ft\u0131lar. IMF ekonomistleri, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiye 2015\u2019de y\u00fczde 0.3 ile 0.7 ilave b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Bu ilave b\u00fcy\u00fcme etkisinin 2016\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 0.4 ile 0.8 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini var. \u0130lave b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerindeki alt taban petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 senaryosunu, \u00fcst tavan ise mevcut arz\u0131n devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n

Akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, ABD ve Almanya gibi \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 0.2\u2019lik bir milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

IMF\u2019DEN S\u00dcBVANS\u0130YONCU H\u00dcK\u00dcMETLERE \u2018AKIL\u2019<\/strong><\/h3>\n

IMF ekonomistlerinin yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde, T\u00fcrkiye gibi petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olup da i\u00e7 pazara s\u00fcbvansiyon sa\u011flayan \u00fclkelere bir tavsiye de veriliyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131 haz\u0131r d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fken, bu s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 \u2018s\u0131f\u0131rlamak\u2019 i\u00e7in politik olarak en az sanc\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nemdesiniz, bunu \u015fimdi yap\u0131n. IMF\u2019nin ima etti\u011finin meali \u015fu; uluslararas\u0131 fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorken, siz h\u00fck\u00fcmetler olarak bu fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini i\u00e7eriye tam yans\u0131tmay\u0131n, \u015fimdiye dek s\u00fcbvanse etti\u011finiz zararlar\u0131 kapat\u0131n. Bizde de bir ekonomik s\u00fcbvansiyon efsanesi olan ama kamuya hi\u00e7 bilgi verilmeyen \u2018Bota\u015f\u2019\u0131n zarar\u0131\u2019 tam da bu kategoriye giriyor.<\/p>\n

PETROLDEK\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e RUSYA\u2019YA KOMPLO MU?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, devam\u0131nda Rusya\u2019da rublenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile birlikte konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bir komplo kuram\u0131n ba\u011flan\u0131verdi hemen; \u2018ABD ve Suudi Arabistan, Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ekonomik olarak s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fcler\u2019.<\/p>\n

Bu komplo kuram\u0131n\u0131 seslendirenlere \u015fu soruyu soruyorum; ne yapt\u0131lar da fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc? Tek ba\u015f\u0131na birka\u00e7 oyuncu bunu yapabilir mi?<\/p>\n

Fiyatlar neden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc sorusuna yan\u0131t arama \u00e7abalar\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de durum \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nedenleri farkl\u0131 kaynaklarda \u015f\u00f6yle say\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00f6nceki on y\u0131llara g\u00f6re 2007 sonras\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, ikame kaynaklarla enerji sa\u011flama aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7mas\u0131, yenilenebilir enerjinin h\u0131zla ikame edilmesi, bu geli\u015fmelerin sonucunda ABD\u2019nin 2008 sonras\u0131nda h\u0131zla artan petrol ve kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi ile net ithalatta son 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne gerilemesi, ABD\u2019deki faizlerin son bir bu\u00e7uk y\u0131lda artma e\u011filimine girmesiyle hem finansal portf\u00f6ylerde ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol ve di\u011fer enerji kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, hem de y\u00fckselen faizler nedeniyle stok tutma maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra stok tutma avantaj\u0131 belirdi), \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00f6rece daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011finin anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla talep cephesinin gerileyece\u011fi ve petrol\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentileriyle sat\u0131\u015flar gelmesi.<\/p>\n

Peki, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 85 milyon varil \u00fcretim yap\u0131lan piyasada bunun sadece 30 milyon varilini \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kartel olan OPEC neden \u00fcretimi k\u0131sma karar almad\u0131? Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte hemen \u00fcretim k\u0131san OPEC \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler, \u00f6rne\u011fin Suudi Arabistan neden \u2018isterse 20 dolara d\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn, \u00fcretimi k\u0131smay\u0131z\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yap\u0131yorlar?<\/p>\n

KOMPLODAN \u00c7OK \u2018OYUN TEOR\u0130S\u0130\u2019 \u00c7ALI\u015eIYOR<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bu konu, ekonomi ve enerji meselesini a\u015f\u0131yor ve tam bir \u2018oyun teorisi\u2019 kapsam\u0131na giriyor. OPEC e\u011fer \u00fcretim k\u0131sma karar\u0131 al\u0131rsa OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelere pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 kapt\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Bu y\u00fczden, 30 dolarl\u0131k maliyet ve y\u00fcksek verimlilikle petrol \u00e7\u0131karanlar sab\u0131rl\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden, IMF ekonomistlerinin de analiz etti\u011fi \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131 kayda de\u011fer; y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerdeki petrol ve gaz \u00fcreticilerini te\u015fvik ediyordu. \u015eimdi \u00fc\u00e7-d\u00f6rt ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re neredeyse yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 55 dolara gelen bug\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlar, bu OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin neredeyse maliyet s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131.<\/p>\n

DEVAMI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N\u00a0TIKLAYINIZ>>><\/a><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. U\u011fur G\u00fcrses \/ Radikal Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, devam\u0131nda Rusya\u2019da rublenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile birlikte konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bir komplo kuram\u0131n ba\u011flan\u0131verdi hemen; \u2018ABD ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[18705,19799,63,3136,20339,1009,1377,10516,19663,15276],"views":342,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34751"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34751"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34751\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34753,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34751\/revisions\/34753"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}