{"id":34699,"date":"2014-12-23T11:22:16","date_gmt":"2014-12-23T08:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34699"},"modified":"2014-12-23T11:22:16","modified_gmt":"2014-12-23T08:22:16","slug":"birol-petrol-fiyatlari-2015ten-sonra-yukselecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/birol-petrol-fiyatlari-2015ten-sonra-yukselecek\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Birol: \u201cPetrol Fiyatlar\u0131 2015\u2019ten Sonra Y\u00fckselecek\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 Ba\u015f ekonomisti Fatih Birol\u2019a g\u00f6re petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu seviyede kalmayacak. Birol, fiyatlar\u0131n 2015\u2019ten sonra y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor. Birol ayr\u0131ca Ortado\u011fu kaynaklar\u0131na her zamankinden daha fazla ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n her y\u0131l haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cD\u00fcnya Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d raporunun tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelen ajans\u0131n Ba\u015fekonomisti Fatih Birol, sekt\u00f6re \"fatih-birol-2398239833\"<\/a>ili\u015fkin beklentilerini anlatt\u0131. Fatih Birol, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fckselece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

\u201cPetrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu seviyede kalacak m\u0131? Hay\u0131r. Hemen de\u011fil ama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olacak. 2015\u2019te \u00e7ok ciddi bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklemiyorum ama y\u00fckseli\u015f olacak.\u201d<\/p>\n

Peki Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 Neden D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?<\/h3>\n

Fatih Birol\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD\u2019deki kaya gaz\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcndeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu ve bu d\u00f6nem talebin son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir zamana denk geldi. Japonya\u2019da resesyon olmas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yava\u015flama ve AB\u2019deki talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc petrole olan talebi azaltan etkenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

\u201cYat\u0131r\u0131m D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, T\u00fcketim Canlan\u0131r\u201d<\/h3>\n

Birol petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn iki \u00f6nemli sonucu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

\u201cBir\u00e7ok petrol \u015firketi yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131st\u0131. \u015eirketilerin harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 ila 20 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Bunun en fazla uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler ABD ve Brezilya. ABD\u2019de sahalarda karl\u0131l\u0131k i\u00e7in petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 75 dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gerek. Bu fiyat garanti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131yorlar. \u0130kinci sorun da fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle talepte art\u0131\u015f ihtimali var, t\u00fcketim canlanacak, talep artacak.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0130ki Stres Noktas\u0131 Var\u201d<\/h3>\n

Fatih Birol, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda iki \u00f6nemli stres noktas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor: Enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi\u2026<\/p>\n

Birol, \u015fu andaki enerji piyasalar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sorun yokmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ciddi bir \u2018ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131\u2019 ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini ifade etti:<\/p>\n

\u201cMesela petrol fiyatlar\u0131 65 dolarlara kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, yeteri kadar petrol var, sorun yokmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ka\u00e7 y\u0131lda Kuzey Afrika ve Ortado\u011fu`daki sorunlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00e7abucak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in ciddi bir ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 olabilir. Rusya ile Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki sorunlar, do\u011falgazda da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finin ciddi bir sorun oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ukrayna Rusya krizini \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc defa ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finin h\u00e2l\u00e2 sorun oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011finin \u00fcst s\u0131ralara t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Enerji stratejilerinin nas\u0131l yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunuyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gaz emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yine y\u00fczde 2.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve d\u00fcnyadaki \u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 3.6 santigrat artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak bir y\u00f6r\u00fcngeye oturttu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7eken Birol, bunun da \u2018i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz hayat al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131za yava\u015f yava\u015f Alllaha\u0131smarlad\u0131k dememiz\u2019 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\u201cOrtado\u011fu\u2019ya \u0130htiya\u00e7 Yok Demek Tamamen Yanl\u0131\u015f\u201d<\/h3>\n

ABD\u2019de kaya gaz\u0131 petrol\u00fcndeki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya ihtiyac\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yorumlar\u0131n tamamen yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu ifade eden Birol Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun bug\u00fcn de yar\u0131n da d\u00fcnya petrol piyasas\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lge olarak kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131lda talebin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 14 milyon varil b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu talebi kim kar\u015f\u0131layacak? D\u00f6rt \u00f6nemli \u00fcretici var: ABD, Brezilya, Kanada ve Ortado\u011fu. ABD\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f en fazla g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2 milyon, hadi 3 milyon olsun. Geriye kalan 10 milyon varil nereden gelecek? ABD bu talebi tek ba\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131layamaz. ABD \u015fu anda h\u00e2l\u00e2 petrol ithal ediyor. Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan \u00f6zellikle 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda art\u0131\u015f gelmeli ki aradaki fark kapans\u0131n. Art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m gerek ama \u015fu anda istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan dolay\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun yat\u0131r\u0131m hevesi ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f durumda. En \u00f6nemli \u00fclke Irak, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc maliyetler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. 1 varil 5 dolara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, kaya gaz\u0131nda bu 75 dolar. \u0130stikrars\u0131zl\u0131k nedeniyle Irak\u2019taki yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda soru i\u015fareti var.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00c7in Bir Numaral\u0131 N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Olacak\u201d<\/h3>\n

Fatih Birol, enerjide farkl\u0131 alanlardaki geli\u015fmelere de de\u011findi, \u00c7in`in yak\u0131n gelecekte n\u00fckleer enerjide bir numaral\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

\u201cGelecek y\u0131llarda kurulacak her iki n\u00fckleer santralden biri \u00c7in`de olacak. \u00c7in, ABD`yi ge\u00e7erek d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 n\u00fckleer enerji g\u00fcc\u00fc haline gelecek. N\u00fckleerde in\u015fa halindeki 80 GW`\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7in`de. \u00c7in bat\u0131dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 teknolojiyi geli\u015ftirip daha fazla santral kurarak daha ucuza nas\u0131l kurulabilece\u011fini \u00f6\u011freniyor. \u00c7in`in yak\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde d\u00fcnyadaki en \u00f6nemli n\u00fckleer teknoloji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 haline getirebilir. \u00c7in bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeyle, Almanya, Fransa, ABD, Japonya ile rekabet edebilecek noktaya gelecek.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAB\u2019de N\u00fckleere D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f Ba\u015flayabilir\u201d<\/h3>\n

Birol, AB`de n\u00fckleer kapasitede ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini ve bunun \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilecek bir trend oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti. Avrupa`da \u015fu anda mevcut santrallerin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6m\u00fcrlerini tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yenilerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha az olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

AB`nin enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 30`unu kar\u015f\u0131layan n\u00fckleerden vazge\u00e7mesi nedeniyle \u00e7ok ciddi bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Fatih Birol, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin n\u00fckleere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapabilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00fckleerin Sorunlar\u0131 Var\u201d<\/h3>\n

N\u00fckleer enerji alan\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sorunlara da de\u011finen Birol, i\u015fletme riskleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli konu oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti:<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00fckleer santrallerin de belli bir \u00f6mr\u00fc var Santraller, \u00f6mr\u00fc dolunca devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmal\u0131. \u015eimdiye kadar ancak 10 santral devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131. Devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131nca ne yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 bilmiyoruz. \u0130kincisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 santral hep birlikte devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalacak. S\u00f6k\u00fclmesi ve at\u0131klar\u0131n temizlenmesi laz\u0131m. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke bu konuda haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. O bak\u0131mdan yeni ba\u015flayan \u00fclkelerden s\u00f6kme devreden \u00e7\u0131karma konusunda hem d\u00fczenlemeler hem de finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc n\u00fckleer at\u0131klar\u0131n bertaraf edilmesi. Zaten elde \u00e7ok ciddi at\u0131k var ve yenileri de gelmeye devam edecek. Nas\u0131l depolanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda nihai bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yok. Fransa, Japonya ABD bu konularda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Nihai bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunursa n\u00fckleerle ilgili \u00f6nemli bir sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zebilir. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyecek bir sorun da de\u011fil,\u201d<\/p>\n

DEVAMI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N\u00a0TIKLAYINIZ>>><\/a><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 Ba\u015f ekonomisti Fatih Birol\u2019a g\u00f6re petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu seviyede kalmayacak. Birol, fiyatlar\u0131n 2015\u2019ten sonra y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor. Birol ayr\u0131ca Ortado\u011fu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[20350,19634,63,4567,818,21,1533,347,17771,1022],"views":683,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34699"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34701,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34699\/revisions\/34701"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}