{"id":34612,"date":"2014-12-19T11:31:42","date_gmt":"2014-12-19T08:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34612"},"modified":"2014-12-19T11:31:42","modified_gmt":"2014-12-19T08:31:42","slug":"ucuz-petrol-rusyaya-yaramadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/ucuz-petrol-rusyaya-yaramadi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Ucuz Petrol Rusya\u2019ya Yaramad\u0131…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 ve Ruble\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesi Rusya\u2019da enflasyona ve resesyon tehlikesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Rusya i\u00e7in devlet iflas\u0131 riski ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerine muhtemel etkileri tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brent tipi y\u00fcksek kaliteli petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 hafta ortas\u0131nda 60 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden t\u00fcketicinin cebinden de \"rusya-petrol-82093830238023\"<\/a>daha az para \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yar\u0131yor. Alman Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n ba\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 J\u00f6rg Kr\u00e4mer petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Kr\u00e4mer, \u2018petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc te\u015fvik edece\u011fi i\u00e7in sevindirici bir geli\u015fme mi, yoksa d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda oldu\u011funu mu g\u00f6steriyor?\u2019 \u015feklindeki ilk sorumuzu \u015f\u00f6yle yan\u0131tlad\u0131:<\/p>\n

\u201cPetrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki durgunlukla ilgisi yok. Fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 miktarda petrol \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Bunu \u2018pozitif arz \u015foku\u2019 olarak da adland\u0131rabiliriz. Ekonominin canlanmas\u0131na yarar. Almanya \u00f6rne\u011fine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enerji faturas\u0131na yans\u0131yan tasarrufun Gayr\u0131 Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde birine tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda reel gelirin ve \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 oranda artabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.\u201d<\/p>\n

Varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin petrol t\u00fcketen \u00fclkelere yarar sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Commerzbank ba\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Kr\u00e4mer ucuzlu\u011fun ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair tahminlerini ise \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetledi:<\/p>\n

\u201cPetrol arz\u0131 hala \u00e7ok fazla. OPEC \u00fclkeleri \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye niyetli de\u011fil. Bu durumda petrol\u00fcn daha da ucuzlamas\u0131 beklenebilir. Uzun vadede, yani 12 ila 18 ayl\u0131k bir s\u00fcrede ise petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni ABD\u2019de yat\u0131yor. Amerika\u2019da hidrolik k\u0131rma metoduyla kaya petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin petrol \u00fcretimi yak\u0131nda 1970\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n seviyesine kadar \u00e7\u0131kacak. Ancak 60 dolarl\u0131k varil fiyat\u0131yla daha fazla petrol kuyusu a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu y\u00f6ntemin maliyeti \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Orta vadede ABD\u2019nin petrol \u00fcretimi azalaca\u011f\u0131ndan, bir ya da bir bu\u00e7uk y\u0131la kadar petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 Etkilemez\u2019<\/h3>\n

Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok Rusya olumsuz etkilendi. Petrol gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe paralel olarak Rus Rublesi de bat\u0131l\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 60\u2019lara varan oranlarda de\u011fer kaybetti. Commerzbank ba\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 J\u00f6rg Kr\u00e4mer\u2019e, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n buna daha ne kadar dayanabilece\u011fini ve devlet iflas\u0131 tehlikesi olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorduk:<\/p>\n

\u201cRusya\u2019n\u0131n devlet iflas\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilece\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum. D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7ok az. Ruble\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesi de devlet b\u00fct\u00e7esine yar\u0131yor. Dolarla sat\u0131lan petrol faturas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli Ruble\u2019ye \u00e7evrilmesi hazinenin gelirini artt\u0131r\u0131yor. As\u0131l tehlike devlet iflas\u0131 de\u011fil, Ruble\u2019nin de\u011fer erozyonuna u\u011framas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn erimekte olu\u015fudur. Bence Rusya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck problemi, \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre resesyonda kalacak olmas\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n

DEVAMI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N\u00a0TIKLAYINIZ>>><\/a><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 ve Ruble\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesi Rusya\u2019da enflasyona ve resesyon tehlikesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Rusya i\u00e7in devlet iflas\u0131 riski ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerine muhtemel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[16153,20281,15913,63,3136,20282,347,17115,885,19062],"views":510,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34612"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34614,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34612\/revisions\/34614"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}