{"id":34537,"date":"2014-12-17T10:16:03","date_gmt":"2014-12-17T07:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34537"},"modified":"2014-12-17T10:16:03","modified_gmt":"2014-12-17T07:16:03","slug":"makale-dogalgaz-tuketim-kapasitesi-ve-dogalgaz-yakitli-elektrik-santralleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/makale-dogalgaz-tuketim-kapasitesi-ve-dogalgaz-yakitli-elektrik-santralleri\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Makale: Do\u011falgaz T\u00fcketim Kapasitesi ve Do\u011falgaz Yak\u0131tl\u0131 Elektrik Santralleri!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-en\">Sorry, this entry is only available in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34537\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-tr\" title=\"Turkish\">Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p><p><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Son y\u0131llarda tekrarlanmakta olan do\u011falgaz darbo\u011faz\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli bilgilerin derlendi\u011fi ve de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki maddelerden olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u2022 \u0130mzalanm\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin temin etti\u011fi do\u011falgaz miktar\u0131,<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u0130leriki y\u0131llarda devreye girmesi beklenen do\u011falgaz iletim projeleri,<br \/>\n\u2022 Do\u011falgaz depolanmas\u0131,<br \/>\n\u2022 Do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santralerin kaynak g\u00fcvenli\u011fi<br \/>\n\u2022 Do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santrallerin i\u015fletilmeleri ve \u00fcretim maliyetleri<br \/>\n\u2022 Karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 besleyen veriler<br \/>\n\u2022 Sonu\u00e7<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Derleme ile birlikte do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santrallerin kaynak g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve sorunlar hakk\u0131nda ki\u015fisel\u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler payla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">\u0130mzalanm\u0131\u015f S\u00f6zle\u015fmelere G\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Temin Etti\u011fi Do\u011falgaz Miktar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">EPDK taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan do\u011falgaz piyasas\u0131 sekt\u00f6r raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2006 \u2013 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda\u00a0ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen do\u011falgaz ithalat miktarlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da verilmi\u015ftir(1 ve 2);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/d1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69128\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/d1.png\" alt=\"d1\" width=\"715\" height=\"282\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere do\u011falgaz ithalat miktar\u0131 son y\u0131llarda 43 \u2013 46 milyar metrek\u00fcp aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0seyretmektedir. Yukar\u0131daki veriler, boru gaz\u0131 ve gemiler ile ta\u015f\u0131nan s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz olarak iki\u00a0ayr\u0131 grupta incelendi\u011finde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki sonu\u00e7lar elde edilmektedir;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/boru-gaz%C4%B1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69127\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/boru-gaz%C4%B1.png\" alt=\"boru gaz\u0131\" width=\"730\" height=\"306\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Son 3 y\u0131lda boru hatlar\u0131 ile ithal edilen do\u011falgaz miktar\u0131 37 \u2013 39 milyar metrek\u00fcp aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iken,s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz miktar\u0131 da 5,2 \u2013 5,4 milyar metrek\u00fcp aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oynamaktad\u0131r ve miktarlar\u0131\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fck oranlarda de\u011fi\u015fen do\u011falgaz t\u00fcr\u00fc, spot piyasalardan elde edilen s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz<br \/>\nolmaktad\u0131r. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015f ile devrede olan gaz al\u0131m anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ile 42,8 \u2013 44,3 milyar do\u011fal gaz ithal\u00a0edilirken, bunun \u00fcst\u00fcndeki ihtiya\u00e7 spot piyasadan al\u0131nan do\u011falgaz ile giderilmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Do\u011falgaz\u0131n kullan\u0131m yerlerine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketimi ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda verilmi\u015ftir(2);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekt%C3%B6rler.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69126\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/sekt%C3%B6rler.png\" alt=\"sekt\u00f6rler\" width=\"409\" height=\"247\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan do\u011falgazl\u0131 termik santrallerin t\u00fcketimi 21 milyar metrek\u00fcp iken 2013\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcm t\u00fcketimin %46\u2019s\u0131 bu tesislerde olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Medya organlar\u0131nda (NTVMSNBC \u2013 01.10.2014) \u00e7\u0131kan haberlere g\u00f6re Mavi Ak\u0131m Boru Hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden\u00a0verilen 16 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck do\u011falgaz milktar\u0131 19 milyar metrek\u00fcpe \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak Rusya\u2019dan gelen\u00a0gaz\u0131n kapasitesi yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 30 milyar metrek\u00fcpe \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #232323;\">\u0130leriki Y\u0131llarda Devreye Girmesi Beklenen Do\u011falgaz \u0130letim Projeleri<\/h2>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan do\u011falgaz arz\u0131n\u0131 rahatlatmak amac\u0131 ile M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan, Irak\u2019tan, Azerbaycan\u2019dan ve\u00a0T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019dan gelecek d\u00f6rt do\u011falgaz hatt\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131 beklenmektedir(3);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">M\u0131s\u0131r \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye (Arap) Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi: Boru Hatt\u0131 hali haz\u0131rda \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Suriye ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019a\u00a0gaz sa\u011flamakta olup, yap\u0131m\u0131 Suriye\u2019nin Humus \u015fehiri yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda durmu\u015ftur. Hatt\u0131n Humus \u2013 Halep \u2013\u00a0Kilis \u00fczerinden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ba\u011flanmas\u0131 planlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede i\u00e7 sava\u015f<br \/>\nko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut olmas\u0131 hatt\u0131n yap\u0131labilirli\u011fini k\u0131sa ve orta vadede ortadan kald\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Tahsis\u00a0edilebilecek do\u011falgaz\u0131n miktar\u0131 belirsizdir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Irak \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi: \u0130mzalanan mutabakat zapt\u0131 ile y\u0131lda 10 \u2013 12 milyar\u00a0metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck do\u011falgaz\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iletilmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olsa da Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut siyasi durumundan\u00a0dolay\u0131 projenin gelece\u011fi k\u0131sa ve orta vadede belirsizdir. Son olarak 22 ve 23 Kas\u0131m 2014 tarihli<br \/>\ngazetelerde Irak gaz\u0131n\u0131n 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iletilmeye ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren de 10\u00a0milyar metrek\u00fcp gaz\u0131n arz edilece\u011fi belirtilmi\u015ftir(4).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Trans Anadolu Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 (TANAP): Proje, \u015eahdeniz Faz II olarak an\u0131lan anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda\u00a0Azerbaycan\u2019dan gelecek olan gaz\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131rma projesi okup, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye\u00a0verilecek olan miktar 6 milyar metrek\u00fcpt\u00fcr. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda gaz\u0131n iletilmesine ba\u015flanmas\u0131<br \/>\nbeklenmektedir. Proje kapsam\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak olan gaz\u0131n miktar\u0131 10 milyar metrek\u00fcpt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Hazar Ge\u00e7i\u015fli T\u00fcrkmenistan \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 Avrupa Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi: Var\u0131lan anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re\u00a0iletilecek olan 30 milyar metrek\u00fcp do\u011falgaz\u0131n 16 milyar metrek\u00fcp\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye verilecek olup, geri\u00a0kalan 14 milyar metrek\u00fcp ise Avrupa\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Anla\u015fman\u0131n devreye girece\u011fi tarih\u00a0belirsizdir(5).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/harita11.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69119\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/harita11.png\" alt=\"harita11\" width=\"870\" height=\"534\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Do\u011falgaz Depolanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Zor ge\u00e7mesi beklenen zaman aral\u0131klar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmak \u00fczere do\u011falgaz depolanmas\u0131 uzun y\u0131llardan beri\u00a0g\u00fcndemde olup, Silivri\u2019de bulunan Kuzey Marmara ve De\u011frimenk\u00f6y yeralt\u0131 depolar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu andaki\u00a0kapasitesi 2,6 milyar metrek\u00fcpt\u00fcr. Bu miktar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 ve 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin %5 \u2013 %6\u2019s\u0131\u00a0kadard\u0131r. Buradaki depolama hacminin 2015 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda kademeli olarak 4,3 milyar metrek\u00fcpe\u00a0\u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanmaktad\u0131r(3).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bunun yan\u0131nda Tuz G\u00f6l\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn alt\u0131nda yap\u0131m\u0131 devam etmekte olan yeralt\u0131 deposunun hacmi 1,4 milyar\u00a0metrek\u00fcp olacak olup, bu deponun da 2015 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda (1 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck hacmin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde) kademeli bir \u015fekilde devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 beklenmektedir(3).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iki ayr\u0131 tesiste (BOTA\u015e\u2019a ait Marmara Ere\u011flisi deposu ile Ege Gaz A.\u015e.\u2019ye ait Alia\u011fa deposu)\u00a0depolanabilecek toplam s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz miktar\u0131 535.000 metrek\u00fcpt\u00fcr. Bu miktar fakt\u00f6r say\u0131s\u0131\u00a0olarak 600 ile \u00e7arp\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 321.000.000 metrek\u00fcp klasik do\u011falgaza denk gelmektedir(2).<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Do\u011falgaz Yak\u0131tl\u0131 Termik Santrallerin Kaynak G\u00fcvenli\u011fi<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yukar\u0131da bahsi ge\u00e7en do\u011falgaz iletim g\u00fczergahlar\u0131n\u0131n bulunduklar\u0131 seviye g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa\u00a0vadede arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebilecek se\u00e7enekler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Bunlar;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 Mevcut hatlar\u0131n kapasitelerin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en \u00fcst seviyede kullan\u0131lmas\u0131,<br \/>\n\u2022 Mevsimler aras\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketim farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcsleyebilmek i\u00e7in yeralt\u0131 depolar\u0131n\u0131n hacimlerinin\u00a0h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2,6 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck depolama hacminin 3,6 \u2013\u00a04 milyar metrek\u00fcpe y\u00fckseltilmesidir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Orta vadede ise;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 Mevsimler aras\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketim farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcsleyebilmek i\u00e7in yeralt\u0131 depolar\u0131n\u0131n hacimlerinin\u00a0h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna 5,7 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck depolama hacminin\u00a0devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131,<br \/>\n\u2022 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar TANAP projesinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve 6 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck bir gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131,<br \/>\nbeklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli sebeplerden (Suriye\u2019deki i\u00e7 sava\u015f, Irak\u2019ta devlet organizasyonundaki bo\u015fluk,\u00a0T\u00fcrkmenistan gaz\u0131n\u0131n devreye giri\u015f tarihinin belirsizli\u011fi v.b.) dolay\u0131 M\u0131s\u0131r \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye (Arap) Do\u011falgaz Boru\u00a0Hatt\u0131 Projesi, Irak \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi ve Hazar Ge\u00e7i\u015fli T\u00fcrkmenistan \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 Avrupa<br \/>\nDo\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi k\u0131sa ve orta vadede T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir bir gaz arz\u0131 sa\u011flayamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu durumda 2015 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenebilecek olan geli\u015fmeler \u015funlard\u0131r;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 Mavi Ak\u0131m Boru Hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar 3 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck ek bir arz sunulmas\u0131,<br \/>\n\u2022 Gaz depolama kapasitesinin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar 3,6 \u2013 4 milyar metrek\u00fcpe y\u00fckseltilmesi (y\u0131ll\u0131k\u00a0t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %7 \u2013 %8\u2019i),<br \/>\n\u2022 Gaz depolama kapasitesinin 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar 5,7 milyar metrek\u00fcpe y\u00fckseltilmesi,<br \/>\n\u2022 TANAP do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar 6 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck yeni bir arz\u00a0sunulmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">1 metrek\u00fcp do\u011falgaz ile 5 kWh elektrik enerjisinin \u00fcretilebildi\u011fi kabul edildi\u011finde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de k\u0131sa vadede\u00a0t\u00fcketime sunulmas\u0131 beklenen 3 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile 15.000 GWh ve buna ek olarak 2018 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren\u00a0arz edilebilecek 6 milyar metrek\u00fcp ile 15.000 GWh de\u011ferine ilave olarak ancak 30.000 GWh do\u011falgaz<br \/>\nsantrali k\u00f6kenli elektrik \u00fcretimi s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir. Bu rakamlar olabilecek en y\u00fcksek rakamlar olup\u00a0sanayi ve konut ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fakat 45.000 GWh seviyesindeki potansiyel \u00fcretim\u00a0miktar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 elektrik \u00fcretimine y\u00f6nlendirilse bile y\u0131ll\u0131k 7.500 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma saati kabul\u00fc ile bu miktardaki bir\u00a0potansiyel toplamda ancak 3.000 MW kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc destekleyebilecektir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015fu anda yat\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcreci\u00a0devam etmekte olan do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santralleri toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7leri ise bunun \u00fczerindedir. Bu sonuca\u00a0g\u00f6re ilerideki d\u00f6nemde do\u011falgaz ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak olan elektrik santrallerinin yak\u0131t arz g\u00fcvenliklerinin tehlikeli\u00a0bir duruma d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve aralar\u0131nda sert bir rekabetin olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu duruma kar\u015f\u0131\u00a0geli\u015ftirilebilecek \u00f6nlemlere acilen ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u00a0Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakan\u0131 Taner Y\u0131ld\u0131z\u2019\u0131n 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir beyanda, do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 elektrik\u00a0santrallerinden yak\u0131t tedari\u011fi istenece\u011fi belirtilmi\u015ftir(7). Bahsi ge\u00e7en santrallerden bu y\u00f6nde bir tedarik\u00a0istenmemesi durumunda dahi do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin gaz tedari\u011finin sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Do\u011falgaz Yak\u0131tl\u0131 Termik Santrallerin \u00dcretim Maliyetleri ve \u0130\u015fletilmeleri<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Elektrik M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131n\u0131n resmi web sitesinden al\u0131nan verilere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki elektrik\u00a0santrallerinin toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7leri, toplam elektrik \u00fcretimi, santral tiplerinin toplam i\u00e7erisindeki oranlar\u0131\u00a0ve kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 miktarlar\u0131, santral tiplerine ait elektrik \u00fcretim oranlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir(8).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Toplam kurulu g\u00fcce ve oranlara sad\u0131k kal\u0131narak her santral tipi i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k elektrik \u00fcretimi miktar\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k\u00a0ortalama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma saati hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/toplam-kurulu-g%C3%BC%C3%A7.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69125\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/toplam-kurulu-g%C3%BC%C3%A7.png\" alt=\"toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7\" width=\"586\" height=\"307\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yukar\u0131daki tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santraller y\u0131lda ortalama olarak 5.200 saat civar\u0131nda\u00a0\u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta olup, genel bir beklenti olan 7.000 \u2013 7.500 saat seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lamamaktad\u0131r. Bunun sebep ve\u00a0sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da s\u0131ralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 2012 ve 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k elektrik enerjisi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok az artmas\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,3),<br \/>\n\u2022 2012 ve 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u00e7ok fazla artmas\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k %12,2),<br \/>\n\u2022 Bunlar\u0131n sonucu olarak 2012 ve 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda elektrik sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmemesi\u00a0(Piyasa Takas Fiyat\u0131 15,5 Kuru\u015f\/kWh olarak sabit kalm\u0131\u015f ve Sistem Marjinal Fiyat\u0131\u2019da 14,1\u00a0Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesinden 15,1 Kuru\u015f\/kWh saat seviyesine ancak y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. De\u011ferler a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131<br \/>\nortalama de\u011ferlerdir),<br \/>\n\u2022 Sekt\u00f6rde i\u00e7erisinde payla\u015f\u0131lan bilgilere g\u00f6re yeni nesil y\u00fcksek verimli do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin\u00a0s\u0131ras\u0131 ile yak\u0131t ve elektrik maliyetleri 14,4 ve 15,1 Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesinde iken eski nesil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u00a0verimli do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerde elektrik maliyetleri 18 \u2013 20 Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesinde\u00a0ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinden dolay\u0131 eski nesil santraller devreye girememeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (eski nesil do\u011fal\u00a0gazl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin lisanslar\u0131n\u0131n iptallerine ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r(9)).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu bilgilerin yan\u0131nda termik santral tiplerine g\u00f6re yak\u0131t ve \u00fcretim maliyetleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda\u00a0sunulmu\u015ftur(3);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/yak%C4%B1t-tipi.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69124\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/yak%C4%B1t-tipi.png\" alt=\"yak\u0131t tipi\" width=\"552\" height=\"193\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Son 14 aya ait ayl\u0131k maksimum ve minimum saatlik puantlara ait tablolar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r(8);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/ayl%C4%B1k-maksimum.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69123\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/ayl%C4%B1k-maksimum.png\" alt=\"ayl\u0131k maksimum\" width=\"646\" height=\"181\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yukar\u0131daki tabloya ilave olarak yak\u0131ta ba\u011fl\u0131 santral tiplerinin puant y\u00fck talebi oynad\u0131klar\u0131 rol\u00fc g\u00f6steren bir\u00a0grafik(10) ve yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan bir tablonun sunulmas\u0131 okuyucuya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/2012-y%C4%B1l%C4%B1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69122\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/2012-y%C4%B1l%C4%B1.png\" alt=\"2012 y\u0131l\u0131\" width=\"640\" height=\"411\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/27-temmuz.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69121\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/27-temmuz.png\" alt=\"27 temmuz\" width=\"609\" height=\"225\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yukar\u0131daki grafik ve tablo incelendi\u011finde 10.000 MW \u2013 23.000 MW aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda do\u011falgaz ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan elektrik\u00a0santrallerinin di\u011fer k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve s\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131t ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan di\u011fer termik santraller ile birlikte baz y\u00fck\u00fc \u00fcstlendi\u011fi, g\u00fcn\u00a0i\u00e7erisinde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan g\u00fcc\u00fcn 23.000 MW\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k 26.000 MW \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na kadar\u00a0sistemi beslemeye devam etti\u011fi ve 26.000 MW\u2019dan sonraki t\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7 taleplerinde hidroelektrik santrallerin\u00a0a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu hali ile do\u011falgaz santralleri baz y\u00fck\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131layan k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc ve s\u0131v\u0131\u00a0yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santraller ile puant g\u00fc\u00e7 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilen hidroelektrik santraller aras\u0131nda kalan ara\u00a0b\u00f6lgeyi doldurmaktad\u0131rlar. Sisteme 26.000 MW g\u00fc\u00e7 sa\u011flayan termik santrallerin i\u00e7erisinde toplamda\u00a0yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.500 MW\u2019l\u0131k paya ve al\u0131m garantisine sahip Yap \u2013 \u0130\u015flet \u2013 Devret ve Yap \u2013 \u0130\u015flet santralleri de\u00a0bulunmaktad\u0131r. Grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 27 Temmuz 2012 g\u00fcn\u00fc sistem dengesi d\u0131\u015f al\u0131m ve d\u0131\u015f\u00a0sat\u0131m\u00a0kullan\u0131larak dengede tutulabilmi\u015ftir. Grafik ve tablo yard\u0131m\u0131 ile yap\u0131lacak basit bir analiz yap\u0131lmas\u0131\u00a0gerekirse;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallerin sisteme verebildi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7: 4.500 MW<br \/>\n\u0130thal k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallerin sisteme verebildi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7: 4.000 MW<br \/>\nS\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin sisteme verebildi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7: 1.500 MW<br \/>\nHidroelektrik santrallerin sisteme verebildi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7: 11.500 MW<br \/>\nDi\u011fer tip santrallerin sisteme verebildi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7 (genel bir kabul olarak al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r): 1.500 MW<br \/>\nDo\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin haricindeki toplam g\u00fc\u00e7: 23.000 MW<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Sistemin talep etti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7: 39.500 MW<br \/>\nDo\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 gereken g\u00fc\u00e7: 16.500 MW<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Al\u0131m garantisi olan Y\u0130D ve Y\u0130 kapsam\u0131nda do\u011falgazl\u0131 santrallerin toplam kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc: 6.000 MW<br \/>\nSerbest \u00fcretici kapsam\u0131ndaki do\u011fazgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 gereken g\u00fc\u00e7: 10.500 MW<br \/>\nSerbest \u00fcretici kapsam\u0131ndaki do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc: 13.000 MW<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Yukar\u0131da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 27 Temmuz 2012 tarihinde serbest \u00fcreticisi kategorisindeki do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131\u00a0santrallerin toplam\u0131 13.000 MW iken ve sistem 10.500 MW g\u00fc\u00e7 talep ederken, sistemin d\u0131\u015f al\u0131m ve d\u0131\u015f\u00a0sat\u0131m ile dengelenmesi bir i\u015faret olarak yorumlanmal\u0131d\u0131r. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.400 MW kurulu g\u00fcce\u00a0sahip yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santraller ise kapasitelerinin ancak %55 oran\u0131nda katk\u0131 vermi\u015flerdir. Bunun\u00a0yan\u0131nda ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santraller nerede ise tam kapasite devrede bulunmu\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7eisinde sisteme kay\u0131tl\u0131 kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 68.720 MW seviyesinde olup, hali\u00a0haz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 16.500 MW kurulu g\u00fcce sahip barajl\u0131 hidroelektrik santrali kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc, do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131\u00a0elektrik santrallerine ait yakla\u015f\u0131k 21.500 MW kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde ani enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n<br \/>\ngiderilmesi i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devreye girebilecek 38.000 MW seviyesinde bir potansiyel oldu\u011fu\u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir(8). Bunun yan\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 14.000 MW\u2019l\u0131k g\u00fcce sahip k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santral\u00a0kapasitesi eklendi\u011finde \u00fc\u00e7 ana santral tipine ait toplam 52.000 MW\u2019l\u0131k baz ve puant \u00fcretim kapasitesine<br \/>\nra\u011fmen, gaz arz\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanmayan A\u011fustos 2014\u2019de talep edilen yakla\u015f\u0131k 41.000 MW seviyesinde\u00a0kesintiler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ya\u015fanan kurakl\u0131ktan dolay\u0131 y\u00fckselen anl\u0131k elektrik enerjisi fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (17,6\u00a0Kuru\u015f\/kWh) te\u015fvik etmesi ile devreye girebilen do\u011falgaz santrallerine ra\u011fmen sistem zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color: #232323;\">Karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Besleyen Veriler<\/h3>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">T\u00fcrkiye S\u0131nai Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (TSKB) taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc raporuna g\u00f6re\u00a0a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da s\u0131ralanan sonu\u00e7lar do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin orta vadedeki konumlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda\u00a0karamsar yorumlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131na sebebiyet vermektedir(11);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201c2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda elektrik talebindeki art\u0131\u015f yava\u015flarken, \u00fcretim kapasitesindeki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z kazand\u0131 ve\u00a0sekt\u00f6rde \u00f6nemli miktarda kapasite fazlas\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Kapasite fazlas\u0131 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda\u00a0artarak s\u00fcrmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">2012 \u2013 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclen kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 (MW) ve t\u00fcketim miktar\u0131\u00a0(kWh) aras\u0131nda dengesizli\u011fin (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lan makas), sekt\u00f6r\u00fc uyaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201cEn fazla kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2.700 MW ile do\u011falgaz santrallerinde, ard\u0131ndan 2.100 MW ilehidroelektrik santrallerinde oldu (2013 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ile 2014 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek aras\u0131ndaki fark). \u201dEnerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda devreye diren do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131\u00a0santrallerin ortalama kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olup (40 \u2013 50 MW aras\u0131), yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n genelde\u00a0kendi elektri\u011fini kendi \u00fcretmek isteyen sanayi b\u00f6lgeleri ve sanayi tesislerinin oldu\u011fu<br \/>\ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu durumun devam\u0131nda serbest elektrik \u00fcreticisi olan firmalar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00a0m\u00fc\u015fterilerinin talep edecekleri elektrik miktar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecek ve do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin \u00fcretim\u00a0tesisi portf\u00f6ylerinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yer tuttu\u011fu \u00fcretici \u015firketler zor duruma d\u00fc\u015feceklerdir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201cPuant talep, yani en y\u00fcksek g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eki\u015fi 40.734 MW olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Santrallerin tabela g\u00fcc\u00fc\u00a0ile de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde puant talebi kar\u015f\u0131layacak yeterli kapasite g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekle birlikte d\u00f6nemsel ve\u00a0b\u00f6lgesel sorunlar ya\u015fanabilmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Mevcut elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 ile devreye girmesi uygun olmayan do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin\u00a0mevcudiyetini g\u00f6steren ko\u015fullar do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirilmeli ve do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin en\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fck rakipleri olan hidroelektrik (puant talebe h\u0131zl\u0131 cevap verebilen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fletme giderleri olan\u00a0rakip) ve ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin (8.760 saatten olu\u015fan bir y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 7.600 saat\u00a0\u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilen d\u00fczenli \u00fcretim yapabilen ve s\u0131ras\u0131 ile 8 ve 10 Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesinde yak\u0131t ve elektrik<br \/>\n\u00fcretim maliyetlerine sahip rakip) eldeki fazla do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santral kapasitesine f\u0131rsat\u00a0vermeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201cG\u00fcvenilir \u00fcretim yede\u011findeki art\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz santrallerinin kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki art\u0131\u015ftan\u00a0kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #c75615;\" href=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/elektrik-t%C3%BCketimi-ve-322.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-69120\" src=\"http:\/\/static.enerjienstitusu123.netdna-cdn.com\/file\/elektrik-t%C3%BCketimi-ve-322.png\" alt=\"elektrik t\u00fcketimi ve 322\" width=\"559\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">2012 \u2013 2014 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekleri aras\u0131ndaki 44 milyar kWh\u2019lik g\u00fcvenilir \u00fcretim kapasitesi fark, 7.000\u00a0saat y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma saati kabul\u00fc \u00fczerinden gidildi\u011finde, yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 6.300 MW kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 fark\u0131n\u0131\u00a0g\u00f6stermektedir. Elektrik t\u00fcketiminin %5 seviyesinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenilir \u00fcretim<br \/>\nkapasitesindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f (yakla\u015f\u0131k %20) rekabetin oldu\u011fu bir ortamda do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santraller\u00a0dezavantajl\u0131 bir duruma d\u00fc\u015feceklerdir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201cTemmuz ve A\u011fustos\u2019ta PMUM fiyatlar\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019taki seviyeyi a\u015farak 17,6 \u2013 17,7 Kuru\u015f\/kWh\u00a0band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f, hidroelektrik santrallerin \u00fcretimi dokuz ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine\u00a0ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de hidroelektrik \u00fcretim dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015f, k\u00f6m\u00fcr<br \/>\nsantrallerindeki ar\u0131za ve bak\u0131mlar nedeni ile do\u011falgaz\u0131n pay\u0131 %50\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve artan\u00a0\u00fcretim maliyetleri fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Do\u011falgaz yakan elektrik santrallerin \u00fcretim miktarlar\u0131 ve pazar paylar\u0131 giderek iki fakt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan\u00a0kontrol edilebilmektedir; hidroelektrik ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santraller. Bu iki santral tipinin\u00a0kurakl\u0131ktan\/ar\u0131za-bak\u0131m-onar\u0131m fakt\u00f6rlerinden etkilenmesi sonucunda olu\u015fan bo\u015fluk do\u011falgaz\u00a0santralleri taraf\u0131ndan doldurulmaktad\u0131r. Yukar\u0131da verilmi\u015f olan 27 Temmuz 2012 tarihindeki\u00a0\u00fcretim paylar\u0131 hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santraller ile hidroelektrik\u00a0santraller aras\u0131nda bir sistem tamamlay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 rol\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tespit edilmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Do\u011fru soru \u015fu olabilir mi; mevcut do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik santrallerinin kapasiteleri ve \u00fcretim\u00a0potansiyelleri, sistemin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fundan ne kadar fazlad\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u2022 \u201cPMUM\u2019daki elektrik fiyat\u0131n\u0131n do\u011falgaz fiyat\u0131na oranlanmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fturulan katsay\u0131n\u0131n 2007\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, yani do\u011falgaz maliyetlerinin elektrik fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131ma oran\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Katsay\u0131daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f k\u0131smen 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretiminin\u00a0pay\u0131 azal\u0131rken hidroelektrik \u00fcretim kapasitesinin artmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0t\u00fcketimdeki durgunlukla birlikte olu\u015fan arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n maliyetle ilgili fakt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, bu\u00a0nedenle PMUM\/Do\u011falgaz katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2,3\u2019ten 2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. 2014\u2019\u00fcn ilk dokuz<br \/>\nay\u0131nda kurakl\u0131k nedeniyle do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00fcretimdeki pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 PMUM fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa yol\u00a0a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f, PMUM\/Do\u011falgaz katsay\u0131s\u0131 2,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Mevcut \u00fcretim sisteminin kurgusu, kurakl\u0131k ve\/veya uzun d\u00f6nemli ar\u0131za \u2013 bak\u0131mlar\u0131n bask\u0131n\u00a0olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, do\u011falgaz maliyetlerinin bire bir yans\u0131mas\u0131na izin vermeyecek bir duruma\u00a0do\u011fru ilerlemekte ve do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 elektrik santralleri i\u00e7in olumsuz ko\u015fullar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131na\u00a0sebebiyet vermektedir.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #232323;\">Sonu\u00e7<\/h2>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerden daha uygun fiyatlara \u00fcretim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinen barajl\u0131 ve depolamas\u0131z\u00a0hidroelektrik santrallerin, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santrallerin, r\u00fczgar santrallerinin kapasiteleri artarken\u00a0do\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerinin de kapasiteleri artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn 68.000 ve sistem taraf\u0131ndan talep<br \/>\nedilen maksimum y\u00fck\u00fcn 41.000 MW seviyesinde oldu\u011fu, devlet taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen ve \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme\u00a0program\u0131na al\u0131nan yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynakl\u0131 termik santraller ve kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenen, y\u0131lda\u00a0ortalama 7.600 saat \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilen ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynakl\u0131 termik santrallerin bulundu\u011fu bir elektrik<br \/>\npiyasas\u0131nda, yukar\u0131daki g\u00f6sterilmi\u015f olan elektrik birim maliyetleri temelinde do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik\u00a0santrallerinin rekabet edebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Anl\u0131k en y\u00fcksek fiyat 16 \u2013 17 Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesine\u00a0geldi\u011finde ekonomik bir \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilen ve elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetleri 15 Kuru\u015f\/kWh olan yeni nesil<br \/>\ndo\u011falgaz yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n kredi geri \u00f6deme s\u00fcre\u00e7leri hen\u00fcz tamamlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2 \u2013 3\u00a0Kuru\u015f\/kWh seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclecek kazan\u00e7, bu santrallerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denmesine\u00a0yetmeyebilecektir(12).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda do\u011falgaz arz\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girilen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131 bir elektrik piyasas\u0131\u00a0bulunsa bile do\u011falgaz temininde ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklenen arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 do\u011falgazl\u0131 elektrik\u00a0santrallerinde istenen \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilememesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr(13);<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cKongrede konu\u015fan Aksa Do\u011falgaz Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m A.\u015e. Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ya\u015far Arslan, do\u011falgaz piyasas\u0131na\u00a0ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulunarak, yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir yasas\u0131n\u0131n, do\u011falgaz \u015febeke yap\u0131m maliyetlerini\u00a0art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Son y\u0131llarda, artan maliyetler nedeniyle \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. Arslan,\u00a0\u201cS\u00f6zle\u015fmelere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir ve buna da bir an \u00f6nce tedbir al\u0131nmas\u0131\u00a0gerekmektedir, yeni kontratlarla ithalat serbestli\u011fi sa\u011flanarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki arz dengesinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131\u00a0gerekmektedir, aksi halde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya girece\u011fiz\u201d de\u011ferlendirmelerinde bulundu.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<p>(1): Do\u011falgaz Piyasas\u0131 Sekt\u00f6r Raporu \u2013 EPDK Do\u011falgaz Piyasas\u0131 Dairesi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2013 Ankara 2013<br \/>\n(2): Do\u011falgaz Piyasas\u0131 2013 Y\u0131l\u0131 Sekt\u00f6r Raporu \u2013 Strateji Geli\u015ftirme Dairesi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131<br \/>\n(3): Enerji Raporu 2013 \u2013 D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi T\u00fcrk Milli Komitesi \u2013 Ocak 2014<br \/>\n(4): 22 Kas\u0131m 2014 tarihli Vatan Gazetesi haberi, 23 Kas\u0131m 2014 tarihli H\u00fcrriyet Gazetesi haberi<br \/>\n(5): BOTA\u015e \u2013 Boru Hatlar\u0131 \u0130le Petrol Ta\u015f\u0131ma A.\u015e. \u2013 Resmi web sitesi \u2013 Do\u011falgaz\/Gaz Al\u0131m Anla\u015fmalar\u0131<br \/>\n(6): BOTA\u015e \u2013 Boru Hatlar\u0131 \u0130le Petrol Ta\u015f\u0131ma A.\u015e. \u2013 Resmi web sitesi \u2013 Projeler\/Haritalar<br \/>\n(7): Enerji ve \u00c7evre D\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u2013 10.05.2012<br \/>\n(8): EMO \u2013 Elektrik M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131 \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Elektrik Enerjisi \u0130statistikleri<br \/>\n(9): Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc web sitesi \u2013 22.12.2013 ve 09.10.2014 tarihli duyurular<br \/>\n(10): T\u00fcrkiye Elektrik Enerjisi 5 Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcretim Kapasite Projeksiyonu (2013 \u2013 2017) \u2013 TE\u0130A\u015e \u2013 Kas\u0131m 2013<br \/>\n(11): 2014 \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00c7eyrek Elektrik Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u2013 TSKB<br \/>\n(12): Zaman Gazetesi \u2013 12.11.2014<br \/>\n(13): Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u2013 24.11.2014<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Mete Ertunga<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><br \/>\nmeteertunga@gmail.com<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Son y\u0131llarda tekrarlanmakta olan do\u011falgaz darbo\u011faz\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli bilgilerin derlendi\u011fi ve de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki maddelerden olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r; \u00a0\u2022 \u0130mzalanm\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin temin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53],"tags":[7523,20222,20223,20224,20225,20226,2012,2585,20227,2262],"views":1957,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34537"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34537"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34539,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34537\/revisions\/34539"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}