{"id":34179,"date":"2014-12-05T15:45:44","date_gmt":"2014-12-05T12:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=34179"},"modified":"2014-12-05T15:45:44","modified_gmt":"2014-12-05T12:45:44","slug":"kose-yazisi-putinin-zor-donemeci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-putinin-zor-donemeci\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: Putin\u2019in Zor D\u00f6nemeci…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

U\u011fur G\u00fcrses \/ Radikal<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

2013\u2019de 280 milyar dolarl\u0131k petrol ihracat\u0131 yapan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, d\u00fcz bir hesapla; bu y\u0131l da ayn\u0131 miktar ihracat yaparsa petrol fiyat\u0131 da 2015 boyunca ortalama 65 dolar olursa geliri 170 milyar dolara gerileyecek. Milli gelirinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019i gibi y\u00fcksek bir kay\u0131p.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6nceki g\u00fcn, okudu\u011fum bir yorumda \u00f6zetle \u015f\u00f6yle denilmi\u015fti; Rusya\u2019daki krizde Putin yara almaz, tersine g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, \u2018yabanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler\u2019\"putin-2397832873\"<\/a> temal\u0131 konu\u015fmalarla destek bile kazanabilir.\u0130\u015fler bozulunca sanki \u00fclkeyi y\u0131llard\u0131r ba\u015fka biri y\u00f6netiyormu\u015f gibi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm otokrat liderler gibi Putin de d\u00fcn aynen \u015funu s\u00f6yledi; \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetten, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki spek\u00fclat\u00f6rleri temizleyecek \u00f6nlemler almas\u0131n\u0131 istedim\u201d. Oysa sorun o kadar da \u2018bir avu\u00e7 spek\u00fclat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u2019 i\u015fi de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Kamuoyu yoklamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 70\u2019in \u00fczerinde destek g\u00f6ren Putin\u2019in a\u011fz\u0131ndan bu s\u00f6zleri d\u00f6kt\u00fcren durum; Rus rublesinin son alt\u0131 ayda dolara kar\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131. Rus ulusal paras\u0131, Haziran\u2019da dolara kar\u015f\u0131 30 ruble seviyesinden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn 55\u2019e vurdu. Yani alt\u0131 aydaki kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 80\u2019i ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n

Rusya, k\u00fcresel bol likidite dalgas\u0131nda, yap\u0131sal ekonomik zaaf ve sorunlar ile demokratik bir hukuk \u00fclkesi olamaman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6rtebildi; ta ki, Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal ve K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 ilhak edene kadar, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fene kadar. Devam\u0131nda ABD ve Avrupa\u2019dan gelen ticari ambargo ve finansal k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla ekonomisi izole olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015flar\u0131nda, \u00c7in ekonomisinde kayda de\u011fer bir yava\u015flama beklentisinin egemen olmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca, ihracat\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7esi buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olan Rusya\u2019ya ve ekonomisine dair bak\u0131\u015f h\u0131zla olumsuza do\u011fru de\u011fi\u015fti. Rublenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bunlar\u0131n sonucu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcn ithal ikamesi planlar\u0131ndan bahseden Rus lider, t\u00fcm ekonomik ve siyasal ad\u0131mlar\u0131n ve hatalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131, demokratik hesap verilebilirlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da fel\u00e7 edildi\u011fi \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu gibi d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lere ve bir tak\u0131m spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlere y\u00fckl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

Bunu diyordu da, ilave olarak da, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutulan paralar\u0131n \u00fclkeye gelmesi i\u00e7in de \u2018sermaye aff\u0131\u2019 \u00f6neriyordu. Sadece bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00fclkeden ka\u00e7an sermayenin kabaca 100 milyar dolar oldu\u011fu \u00fclkenin liderinin sormas\u0131 gereken soru; bu paralar\u0131n neden \u00fclkeyi terk etti\u011fi olmal\u0131yd\u0131. O nedenler ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f m\u0131yd\u0131 ki, afla d\u00f6necekti?<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019in d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde, mali \u00e7evrelerde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sermaye kontrol\u00fcne giderek yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyordu.<\/p>\n

Son 15 y\u0131lda y\u00fcksek seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131yla, Rusya\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelir 2000\u2019deki kabaca 4 bin dolardan 2013\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 bin dolara gelirken, i\u015fsizlik de y\u00fczde 10\u2019lardan y\u00fczde 6\u2019lara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u0131ls\u0131m b\u00fct\u00e7ede ve onun kayna\u011f\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

2013\u2019de 280 milyar dolarl\u0131k petrol ihracat\u0131 yapan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, d\u00fcz bir hesapla; bu y\u0131l da ayn\u0131 miktar ihracat yaparsa petrol fiyat\u0131 da 2015 boyunca ortalama 65 dolar olursa geliri 170 milyar dolara gerileyecek. Milli gelirinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019i gibi y\u00fcksek bir kay\u0131p.<\/p>\n

Rusya b\u00fct\u00e7esinde, petrole ba\u011fl\u0131 gelirler toplam gelirlerin y\u00fczde 45\u2019ini olu\u015fturuyor. 2015 b\u00fct\u00e7esi haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcm y\u0131l i\u00e7in varsay\u0131lan petrol fiyat\u0131 100 dolar\/varil olarak dikkate al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Oysa 65-70 dolarl\u0131k bir fiyat t\u00fcm y\u0131l boyunca devam ederse ya b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131nda kesinti yap\u0131lmak zorunda, ya da rezervler eriyecek. Bu erimenin en az 75 milyar dolar\u0131 bulabilece\u011fi not ediliyor. Rusya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Anton Siluanov\u2019a g\u00f6re, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar Rus ekonomisine 90-100 milyar dolara mal olabilecek. Ki bu tablo k\u0131sa vadede dahi olsa s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

DEVAMI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N\u00a0TIKLAYINIZ>>><\/a><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. U\u011fur G\u00fcrses \/ Radikal 2013\u2019de 280 milyar dolarl\u0131k petrol ihracat\u0131 yapan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, d\u00fcz bir hesapla; bu y\u0131l da ayn\u0131 miktar ihracat yaparsa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53],"tags":[1192,1198,63,3136,1009,8805,19983,19984,19985],"views":594,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34179"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34181,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34179\/revisions\/34181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}