{"id":32613,"date":"2014-10-20T17:32:21","date_gmt":"2014-10-20T14:32:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=32613"},"modified":"2014-10-20T17:33:06","modified_gmt":"2014-10-20T14:33:06","slug":"makale-enerji-dar-bogazina-mi-giriyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/makale-enerji-dar-bogazina-mi-giriyoruz\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Makale: Enerji Dar Bo\u011faz\u0131na m\u0131 Giriyoruz?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde enerji piyasalar\u0131m\u0131zda epey hareketli durumlar bekleniyor. \u015eimdiden tahminler yapmak, strateji geli\u015ftirmek, elimizden geldi\u011fi kadar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak laz\u0131m. Do\u011falgaz konusunda \u00e7ok ciddi gas tedarik sorunumuz var. Ukrayna ve Rusya ile aram\u0131zda bir problem olmasa bile, \u0130stanbul\u2019da d\u0131\u015f ortam s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 -5C alt\u0131na indi\u011fi g\u00fcnlerde, ciddi talep s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131m\u0131z olacak. \u015eahdeniz<\/span>-2, \u0130srail offshore ve Kuzey Irak do\u011falgaz yataklar\u0131ndan bize gaz gelebilece\u011fi tahminleri var. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar bizce bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k zamanda, bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k co\u011frafyada fazlaca \u201ciyimser beklentiler\u201d, yani \u201cwishful thinking\u201d. Bu iyimser beklentiler \u00fcst\u00fcne gelecek yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lamaz.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz 68,000 Mwe oldu, ancak peak (en \u00e7ok) \u00e7eki\u015f 40,000 Mwe\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7emiyor. Son y\u0131llarda ba\u015flayan yeni termik santral yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131<\/span> yok.<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda devreye giren, girecek olan santrallerin yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131 2007 ve \u00f6ncesinde ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. R\u00fczgar ve jeotermal<\/span> santrallerde iyimser yat\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131 var. Termik santrallerde yeni bir durum yok. Yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, Tufanbeyli, G\u00f6yn\u00fck, Adularya, \u0130skenderun santrallerinin en ge\u00e7 2015 i\u00e7inde devreye girmesi bekleniyor. Ba\u015fka yeni termik santral yok.<\/p>\n

HES\u2019ler durdu, i\u015fletmede su s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 var, ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar az gitti, baraj g\u00f6lleri dolmad\u0131. HES enerji \u00fcretimi az. K\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda belki k\u0131\u015f ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile barajlar dolabilir, ama herhalde talebe yetmez.<\/p>\n

Yeni do\u011falgaz santrali yapsan\u0131z bile ortada yeni do\u011falgaz temin<\/span> anla\u015fmas\u0131 yok. Ortada yeni \u201cDo\u011falgaz\u201d kapasitesi yok. Ortada serbest piyasa \u015fartlar\u0131 yok, olmazsa olmaz hukuki g\u00fcvenceler yok.<\/p>\n

\u0130stedi\u011finiz kadar y\u00f6netmelik yaz\u0131n, \"petrol-gaz-enerji-talebi-g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc-349785985443\"<\/a>kanun kabul edin, uzun d\u00f6nemde ortada gaz yok. Gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 subvanse etmenin bir anlam\u0131 yok. 2002-2007 aras\u0131nda elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 sabit tutuldu. 2005-2007 aras\u0131 do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131, ama elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedi, sonu\u00e7ta kimse yeni yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmad\u0131, piyasa \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Shell 2-ayr\u0131 yerde Shale gaz i\u00e7in herbiri 40m $ maliyetli sondajlar yapt\u0131, 3. Sondaj i\u00e7in onay bekliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00f6zellikle G\u00fcneyDo\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinde 1.8 trilyon m3 shalegas rezervi oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor, yani \u015fu anda 45-milyar m3 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen toplam y\u0131ll\u0131k ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 en az 40-y\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131layabilir. Yeni sondajlar i\u00e7in ciddi harcamalar yapmak gerek. Bu harcamay\u0131 kim yapacak?<\/p>\n

Son 10-y\u0131lda kamu<\/span> enerji yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmad\u0131, yapamad\u0131. Sadece yerli- yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya kolayl\u0131klar g\u00f6sterdi. Kanuni sorumluluk almad\u0131, enerji sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda sat\u0131n alma garantisi vermedi. Hukuki ve finans sorumlulu\u011fu almad\u0131. Art\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m zor. Ortada s\u0131cak para yok. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ciddi endi\u015feleri olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Eski yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr yakan termik santraller sat\u0131ld\u0131, bunlar\u0131n emreamadeli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, santral i\u015fletme rand\u0131manlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Yenilenmeleri laz\u0131m. Rehabilitasyon laz\u0131m. \u015eimdilik 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar rehabilitasyon muafiyeti var. Konu yarg\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 karar iptal edildi, ancak karar\u0131n yerine yenisi konmad\u0131, uygulama aynen devam ediyor. \u00c7evre ekipmanlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmadan \u00e7evreyi kirlete kirlete santrali kullanma imkan\u0131 herhalde var. 2018 sonras\u0131nda muafiyeti 3-y\u0131l daha uzatma durumu ayr\u0131ca s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n

Diler 600-1200 MW, Cen-AL 1200 MW, Biga 1200 MW, \u015e\u0131rnak 405 MW, Soma 450 MW, K\u0131r\u0131kkale 800 MW, Band\u0131rma 920 MWe ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcklerden 400 MW termik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 devam ediyor. HES\u2019lerden ise \u00e7o\u011fu barajl\u0131, 1200 MW Il\u0131su, 300 MW Kalehan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 3-5 GW devreye girebilir. Y\u0131lda 500 MW civar\u0131 RES \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 4 y\u0131l boyunca girebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu santrallerin \u00e7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve in\u015faatlar\u0131\/ ekipman sat\u0131nalma i\u015flemleri ilerlemi\u015f tesisler oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, finansal piyasadaki olumsuzluklara ra\u011fmen gecikme ya\u015fansa bile devreye girecekler.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle yaz puant\u0131na katk\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcyle 1-3 GW da GES 4-5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Toplarsak yakla\u015f\u0131k 10-13 GW yani 4 y\u0131lda ortalama 3 GW civar\u0131 yeni yat\u0131r\u0131m imkan\u0131 var. Sonra s\u0131ra N\u00fckleer\u2019lere gelebilir. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 normal finans, sosyal ve siyaset iklimi \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yeni Orta Vade Ekonomik Program\u0131a g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi, elektrik talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,5\u2019u ge\u00e7meyece\u011fi kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaz tedari\u011fi konusunda, e\u011fer \u00fclke i\u00e7i iletim kapasitesi aksamaz, Ukrayna-Rusya krizi t\u0131rmanmaz, \u00f6zellikle Rusya\u2019dan gaz giri\u015f noktalar\u0131nda teknik kapasite var ise, kontrat miktarlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde yeni ekstra gaz al\u0131m\u0131 olabilir. Avrupa\u2019da gaz t\u00fcketiminde %10 civar\u0131nda tahmin edilen \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f varken, bunun sonucunda do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenirken (herhalde 240 USD\/1000m3), Rusya i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede halen y\u00fcksek olan fiyattan gaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (halen 400$\/1000m3) \u00e7ok de\u011ferlidir.<\/p>\n

Af\u015fin Elbistan\u2019da A santrali hala tek \u00fcnite 240 Mwe- y\u00fckte \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirme m\u00fczakereleri devam ediyor. Af\u015fin-B santralinde 2-\u00fcnite ar\u0131zal\u0131, bak\u0131m kapsam\u0131 ve ihalesi i\u00e7in dan\u0131\u015fman tutuldu, bak\u0131m onar\u0131m yenileme tamir s\u00fcreci epey zaman alacak. \u00c7\u00f6llolar kapal\u0131, Hurman \u00e7ay\u0131 yata\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr sahas\u0131 susuzland\u0131rma i\u015fleri y\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Yeni C-D-E sahalar\u0131n\u0131n PPP finans modelinde de\u011ferlendirilebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00c7in, G\u00fcney Kore, Japon, Katar guruplar\u0131 ile m\u00fczakereler devam ediyor. 12-milyar $ yat\u0131r\u0131m b\u00fct\u00e7esinden bahsediliyor. Kamu taraf\u0131 risk almadan, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck almadan bu i\u015fi ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir bilemiyoruz. Af\u015fin Elbistan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda 4(d\u00f6rt) ana risk \u00fcst\u00fcnde kamu insiyatifi \u015fart. Hurman \u00e7ay\u0131 yata\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi, mevcut iletim hatlar\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131, arazi kamula\u015ft\u0131rma ve yeniden iskan, yeni baraj g\u00f6l\u00fc yap\u0131m\u0131 kamu kapsam\u0131nda olmak zorunda.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr<\/span> i\u00e7in ton ba\u015f\u0131 FOB fiyat 60-70 ABD Dolar\u0131 seviyelerine indi. MMBTU ba\u015f\u0131na 2.50 ABD Dolar\u0131 eder. Bu fiyatlar salgalanan fiyatlard\u0131r. Uzun s\u00fcre 80-90 Dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131, \u00e7ok \u00f6zel teslimat s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131nda 160 Dolar seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yani kumar gibi, fiyat riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn maden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 MMBTU birim fiyat\u0131 da 2.00-2.50 ABD Dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda. Bu fiyatta dalgalanma riski az hatta yok.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalorifik de\u011ferde olan yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn Sentetik Gaz \u201cSynGas\u201d olarak \u00fcretilip de\u011ferlendirilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Do\u011faz gaza k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalorifik de\u011ferde (1500-2500 kcal\/1000m3 HHV) ancak, \u00e7evre kirletme riskleri az. Birka\u00e7 pilot sahada test \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Son durumlar, son geli\u015fen olaylar, enerji piyasalar\u0131m\u0131zda ciddi sorunlar\u0131 beraberinde getiriyor, de\u011ferli akil okurlar\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini yazs\u0131nlar, bizde kendimize g\u00f6re fikir sahibi olal\u0131m. Selam ve sayg\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde enerji piyasalar\u0131m\u0131zda epey hareketli durumlar bekleniyor. \u015eimdiden tahminler yapmak, strateji geli\u015ftirmek, elimizden geldi\u011fi kadar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak laz\u0131m. Do\u011falgaz konusunda \u00e7ok ciddi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32614,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53,47,50],"tags":[63,18966,67,1009,4567,165,18967,18968,1374,18969,18970,18971,6569,2262,18972],"views":569,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32613"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32613"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32615,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32613\/revisions\/32615"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32614"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}