{"id":32113,"date":"2014-10-03T08:30:07","date_gmt":"2014-10-03T05:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=32113"},"modified":"2014-10-03T08:30:07","modified_gmt":"2014-10-03T05:30:07","slug":"elektrik-ve-gaza-zam-sadece-bir-baslangic-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-ve-gaza-zam-sadece-bir-baslangic-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik ve Gaza Zam: Sadece Bir Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 m\u0131 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

1 Ekim 2014 tarihinden itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere do\u011fal gaz ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131na %9 oran\u0131nda zam yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00f6telenen ve sonunda yap\u0131lmak zorunda kal\u0131nan zam maalesef bir son de\u011fil ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Nedeni mi? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, uzun vadede plan yerine an\u0131 kurtarmaya odakl\u0131 enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck piyasan\u0131n t\u00fcm oyuncular\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131k \u00e7ekilemiyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik ve gaz piyasalar\u0131 siyam ikizleri gibi birbirine kenetlenmi\u015f durumda: %60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 tek sat\u0131c\u0131 Gazprom\u2019dan tedarik etti\u011fimiz \u2013\u00fcstelik hala Mavi Ak\u0131m\u2019\u0131n kapasite geni\u015fletilmesinden bahsediyoruz- ve bu sene 50 milyar metre k\u00fcpe yakla\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen senelik gaz t\u00fcketimimizin \u00e7o\u011fu elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne gidiyor. T\u00fcrkiye, d\u00fcnyada benzerine az rastlan\u0131r bir \u015fekilde elektrik \u00fcretiminin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamen ithal etti\u011fi do\u011fal gazdan sa\u011fl\u0131yor, yani gaz piyasas\u0131ndaki bir de\u011fi\u015fim elektrik piyasas\u0131na da ister istemez yans\u0131yor. \u00c7arp\u0131k \u00f6\"elektrik-ve-gaza-zam-sadece-bir-baslangic-mi\"<\/a>zelle\u015ftirmeler sonras\u0131 kay\u0131p-ka\u00e7ak oran\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin aksine artmas\u0131 elektrik fiyatlar\u0131na do\u011frudan zamm\u0131 zaruri hale getirirken, gaza yap\u0131lan zamm\u0131n da elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 dolayl\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor. 1 metre k\u00fcp gazdan kabaca 5 kw\/h elektri\u011fin \u00fcretilebildi\u011fi hesab\u0131yla bu sene kurakl\u0131k nedeniyle y\u00fcklenmek durumunda oldu\u011fumuz do\u011fal gaz santrallerinden sadece \u00fcretmeyi hedefledi\u011fimiz 125 milyar kw\/h elektrik i\u00e7in 25 milyar metre k\u00fcp gaz yakmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Bu arada T\u00fcrkiye toplam elektrik kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7inde do\u011fal gaz \u00e7evrim santrallerinin ise 25.538 MW kapasiteye sahip oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. \u00dcstelik bu say\u0131ya yat\u0131r\u0131m a\u015famas\u0131ndaki 15.551 MW dahil de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Gaz\u0131 BOTA\u015e ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere toplamda on \u015firket yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan (Rusya, \u0130ran, Azerbaycan, Cezayir, Nijerya, Spot LNG) al\u0131yor. Dolarla sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gaz\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn firmalar yurti\u00e7inde TL ile sat\u0131yor. Ancak i\u00e7 piyasada fiyatland\u0131rma meselesi devreye girince i\u015fler karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015f\u0131yor: \u00d6zel \u015firketler her ne kadar BOTA\u015e fiyat\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc alsalar da kendi gazlar\u0131n\u0131 serbest piyasada kendi belirledikleri fiyatlarla satabilirken BOTA\u015e piyasaya \u00e7apraz s\u00fcbvansiyon uyguluyor. Yani BOTA\u015e kamu elektrik \u00fcreticisi E\u00dcA\u015e ve devletten al\u0131m garantisine sahip Y\u0130 ile Y\u0130D\u2019lere (Yap-\u0130\u015flet\/Yap-\u0130\u015flet-Devret) ayn\u0131 gaz\u0131 ederinden y\u00fcksek fiyatlarla, bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan sanayi\/konuttaki serbest t\u00fcketici ve abonelere yani hane halk\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlarla sat\u0131yor. Bu durumda BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n dolar de\u011ferlendik\u00e7e i\u00e7 piyasada uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ucuz gaz politikas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

2014\u2019te BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n -\u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerle de\u011fi\u015fmekle birlikte- ortalama al\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 1000 metre k\u00fcp gaz i\u00e7in 415 $ kabul edelim. Dolar\/TL kurunu 1\/2,20 oldu\u011fu durumda BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer maliyetler hesaplanmadan zarar etmemek i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f bedelinin en az 900 TL olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 1 Ekim zamm\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ise BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 piyasadaki sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 ise ayn\u0131 miktarda serbest t\u00fcketiciler -senelik limit 300.000 sm3-\u00a0 i\u00e7in \u00d6TV ve KDV hari\u00e7 717 TL di\u011fer aboneler i\u00e7in ise 778 TL idi. (Ortalama sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 750 TL kabul edelim) Bu durumda BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n piyasaya dolar kurunda ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00f6nce dahi %20 zarar\u0131na gaz satmakta oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dolar biraz de\u011fer kazan\u0131p 2.30\u2019a dayan\u0131nca BOTA\u015e zarar etmemek i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 miktar gaz\u0131 bu sefer 940 TL\u2019ye yani zam \u00f6ncesi sat\u0131\u015f bedelinden %25 daha pahal\u0131ya satmak zorunda kalacakt\u0131. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar olurken gelen %9\u2019luk zam BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 serbest t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in 778 TL di\u011fer aboneler i\u00e7in ise 848 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. (Ortalama sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 810 TL kabul edelim) Fakat bu zamma ra\u011fmen hala kabaca 130 liral\u0131k ( %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde) bir fark bulunmakta, yani k\u00f6t\u00fc haber \u015fu: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck zamlar matematiksel olarak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz! Bu arada 2015 i\u00e7in olumlu say\u0131labilecek geli\u015fmeler de yok de\u011fil. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dakilerden bir ya da birka\u00e7\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n gaz ithalat faturas\u0131 biraz d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Bunlar:<\/p>\n

a) BOTA\u015e ortalama al\u0131m fiyat\u0131 2014 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontratlara 6-9 ay sonra etki g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015febilir<\/p>\n

b) BOTA\u015e Gazprom\u2019dan y\u0131lsonundaki fiyat m\u00fczakereleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ufak bir indirim alabilir (ki Gazprom\u2019un en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci m\u00fc\u015fterisi olarak ya \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 almal\u0131 ya da uygun konjonkt\u00fcrde kontrat yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri endeksinden kurtarmal\u0131, aksi takdirde ba\u015far\u0131dan s\u00f6z edilemez)<\/p>\n

c) \u0130ran tahkimi kazan\u0131labilir, bu da fiyatlara olumlu yans\u0131yabilir<\/p>\n

Bu olumlu geli\u015fmelerden bir ya da birka\u00e7\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse BOTA\u015e 2015 ortalama al\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 400$\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini varsayal\u0131m. Bunun yan\u0131nda dolar\/TL paritesi i\u00e7in de ufak bir senaryo yapal\u0131m:<\/p>\n

1. Senaryoda dolar\/TL kurunun 1\/2,50\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Bu durumda: BOTA\u015e zarar etmemek i\u00e7in 1000 metre k\u00fcp gaz\u0131 1000 TL\u2019ye satmal\u0131. Yani en az %25<\/strong> zam!<\/p>\n

2. Senaryoda dolar\/TL kurunun 1\/2,30 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Bu durumda: BOTA\u015e zarar etmemek i\u00e7in 1000 metre k\u00fcp gaz\u0131 920 TL\u2019ye satmal\u0131. Yani en az %15<\/strong> zam!<\/p>\n

3. Senaryoda dolar\/TL kurunun 1\/2,20 seviyesine geriledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Bu durumda: BOTA\u015e zarar etmemek i\u00e7in 1000 metre k\u00fcp gaz\u0131 880 TL\u2019ye satmal\u0131. Yani en az %10<\/strong> zam!<\/p>\n

\u00d6zel gaz ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n durumu ise ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu. Kur bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle zarar etmekteyken yo\u011fun u\u011fra\u015flar sonucu y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda Gazprom\u2019dan sadece 2014 i\u00e7in %10 indirimle al\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 345 dolardan 310\u2019a \u00e7ekerek pa\u00e7ay\u0131 kurtaran \u00f6zel \u015firketler son zamla ancak rahatlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. BOTA\u015e ve \u00f6zel \u015firketler Gazprom kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda fiyat m\u00fczakere masas\u0131na otururken \u00f6zel \u015firketlerle \u2018downstream\u2019 ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunan Rus devinin bu durumu g\u00f6zetece\u011finden ku\u015fku duyulmuyor. Ya BOTA\u015e?<\/p>\n

Her h\u00e2l\u00fck\u00e2rda iki y\u0131ld\u0131r pop\u00fclist politikalarla bask\u0131lanan fiyatlar\u0131n art\u0131k maliyeti kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar. Maliyet bazl\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rmaya dayal\u0131 makul karlar\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131n sistem art\u0131k zarar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile s\u00fcrd\u00fcremiyor. Peki yukar\u0131da anlat\u0131lanlar\u0131n \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bundan sonra ne olur? 2015 malum se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131. 1 Ekim 2014 zamm\u0131n\u0131n 3 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcreyi kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. 2015\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fck, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi indirim sonra tekrar zam yapal\u0131m s\u00fcrprizi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse hane halk\u0131n\u0131 2015\u2019te \u00e7ok zor g\u00fcnler bekliyor. Bu nedenle 2015\u2019te se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 gelecek daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oranl\u0131 zam kimseyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmamal\u0131. Vatanda\u015f ucuza gaz kullans\u0131n neden s\u00fcbvansiyonu ele\u015ftiriyorsun diyebilirsiniz ama bu s\u00fcbvansiyonun BOTA\u015e\u2019\u0131n verdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klar nedeniyle b\u00fct\u00e7eye ve dolayl\u0131 olarak elektrik fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131yla zaten vatanda\u015f fark etmeden zor durumda b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131yordu. Dahas\u0131 Y\u0130 ve Y\u0130D\u2019lerin al\u0131m garantileri 2018\u2019de doluyor ve kamunun elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor, bu y\u00fczden sistem zaten s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil. \u00dcstelik ben neden tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fim bir mal\u0131n s\u00fcbvansiyonunu destekleyeyim? Elektrik \u00fcretimimin d\u0131\u015f kaynaklara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 neden savunay\u0131m? Yenilenebilir kaynaklara te\u015fvikleri neden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karmayay\u0131m? G\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar \u00fclkesi diye \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de r\u00fczgar\u0131n pay\u0131 toplam elektrik kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn sadece %5\u2019ini buluyor, g\u00fcne\u015fin ise hen\u00fcz esamesi bile okunmuyorsa bu benim su\u00e7um mu?<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7ta, elektrik ve gaz piyasalar\u0131 siyam ikizleri gibi i\u015flemeye devam ediyor. Zamm\u0131 faturas\u0131nda g\u00f6recek olan vatanda\u015fla y\u0131llard\u0131r zaten zarar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f yapmak zorunda b\u0131rak\u0131lan BOTA\u015e bu sistemin daimi kaybedenleriyken, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r oyuncular\u0131 da konjonkt\u00fcrel m\u00fcdahalelerle ancak g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarabiliyor. Herkesin ayn\u0131 gemi i\u00e7erisinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131 ise makro \u00f6l\u00e7ekte plans\u0131zl\u0131k sonucu art\u0131k karaya vuruyor, yani bizi zor g\u00fcnler bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: http:\/\/www.eppen.org<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.1 Ekim 2014 tarihinden itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere do\u011fal gaz ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131na %9 oran\u0131nda zam yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00f6telenen ve sonunda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,51,53],"tags":[18566,656,18567,16230,18568,657,63,67,1009,165,16232,18569],"views":787,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32113"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32113"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32113\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32115,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32113\/revisions\/32115"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}