{"id":3095,"date":"2012-11-01T09:51:10","date_gmt":"2012-11-01T06:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=3095"},"modified":"2012-11-01T09:52:52","modified_gmt":"2012-11-01T06:52:52","slug":"petrolde-kiyamet-senaryosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrolde-kiyamet-senaryosu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrolde K\u0131yamet Senaryosu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmazsa global b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ve \u00fcretim noktas\u0131nda ciddi sorunlar\u0131n do\u011fabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/h4>\n

\"\"Yap\u0131lan son ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar uzun bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrols\u00fcz kalmas\u0131 gibi bir riskin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koysa da uzmanlar petrol \u00fcretiminin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llardaki kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyemeyece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir raporda petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e daha pahal\u0131ya mal oldu\u011fu ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131lar bulunuyor. 1981 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2005 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar her y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.8 oran\u0131nda artan petrol \u00fcretimi 2005 y\u0131l\u0131 itibari ile \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomilerin enerji talepleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yetersiz kald\u0131. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 100 dolar seviyesinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmazsa global b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ve \u00fcretim noktas\u0131nda ciddi sorunlar do\u011fabilecek. Petrol\u00fcn gelece\u011fi ile ilgili be\u015f farkl\u0131 senaryo sunan raporda petrol \u00fcretiminin \u015fimdiye g\u00f6re daha yetersiz oldu\u011fu bir ortamda d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin olas\u0131 adaptasyon s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ortaya konulmu\u015f.<\/p>\n

20 y\u0131l sonra 400 dolar<\/h3>\n

1.8\u2019lik geleneksel oran\u0131n aksine petrol \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n her y\u0131l 0.8 oran\u0131nda sabitlenmesi durumunda her ne kadar k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6nemli bir sorun \u00e7\u0131kmasa da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 10 y\u0131l sonra iki kat\u0131na, 20 y\u0131l sonra da 4 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu senaryoda ABD ve Avrupa gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 0.2 ile 0.4 gibi rakamlara gerilerken, Suudi Arabistan gibi petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeler daha da zenginle\u015fecek. Raporu haz\u0131rlayan IMF ekonomistlerine g\u00f6re be\u015f senaryo aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi en olas\u0131 olan bu model, petrol \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin azalmas\u0131 durumunda geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin yeni \u015fartlara nas\u0131l refleks g\u00f6sterece\u011fini de ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Elektrikli ara\u00e7 rahatlatacak<\/h3>\n

Petrol \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yine azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikinci senaryoda ise elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f sayesinde d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa daha kolay bir \u015fekilde adapte olabilecek. Amerika ve Avrupa gibi ekonomiler bu ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde de 0.1 ve 0.2 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na ula\u015fsalar da ba\u015fta Japonya olmak \u00fczere elektrikli ara\u00e7 ve yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerinin en \u00f6nemli \u00fcreticileri olan Asya \u00fclkeleri \u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 yakalayacak.<\/p>\n

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Petrol azalacak, kabus ba\u015flayacak<\/h3>\n

Petrol \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeni alternatifler yaratamamas\u0131 durumunda ise olduk\u00e7a zorlu g\u00fcnler bizi bekliyor. Elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015famadan petrol \u00fcretiminde b\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fimin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde sadece enerji de\u011fil ba\u015fta kimya olmak \u00fczere petrol\u00fc hammadde olarak kullanan bir\u00e7ok end\u00fcstri kan kaybedecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmayan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme 0.4 ile 0.6 oranlar\u0131na gerileyecek.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkelerin ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artacak<\/h3>\n

2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrole harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 paran\u0131n \u00fclke ekonomisine oran\u0131 yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 3.5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclyor. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta petrol harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke ekonomilerine oran\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclse de \u00f6zellikle ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel ta\u015flar\u0131 olan hammadde olarak petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 end\u00fcstrilerin geli\u015fmesiyle Amerika ile birlikte t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bu oran artacak. Hammadde ihtiyac\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131l boyunca petrol \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f y\u0131lda ortalama 1.2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

20 y\u0131l sonra k\u0131yamet kopacak<\/h3>\n

Petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e daha maaliyetli bir operasyon haline gelirken IMF\u2019nin \u201ck\u0131yamet senaryosu\u201d olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi son senaryoda maaliyetlerdeki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrol \u00fcretimi her y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 oran\u0131nda gerileyecek. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 800 oran\u0131nda artabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunan rapor d\u00fcnyan\u0131n mevcut ekonomik modellerle b\u00f6yle bir felakete yakalanmas\u0131 durumunda geli\u015fmi\u015f devletler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya ekonomileri b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flayacak.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: EnerjiDergisi<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmazsa global b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ve \u00fcretim noktas\u0131nda ciddi sorunlar\u0131n do\u011fabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Yap\u0131lan son […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[],"views":467,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3095"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3095"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3098,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3095\/revisions\/3098"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}