{"id":21819,"date":"2014-01-29T23:11:14","date_gmt":"2014-01-29T20:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=21819"},"modified":"2014-01-29T23:11:14","modified_gmt":"2014-01-29T20:11:14","slug":"bp-2035-enerji-gorunumu-raporu-talep-artacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/bp-2035-enerji-gorunumu-raporu-talep-artacak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) BP 2035 Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporu: Talep %41 Artacak!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

D\u00fcnya petrol devi BP\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c2035 Y\u0131l\u0131 Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d raporu geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin neden oldu\u011fu art\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen global enerji talebinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enerji talebinde 2012 ile 2035 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 41\u2032lik art\u0131\u015f beklendi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 95\u2032lik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fen ekonomilerden kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilirken, Kuzey Amerika, Avrupa ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki enerji t\u00fcketiminin yava\u015f artmas\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6nemin ilerleyen y\u0131llar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raporda, yak\u0131t \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi geli\u015firken, fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n egemen olmaya devam edecek. Petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar her birinin pazar pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 26-27 oranlar\u0131nda olacak. N\u00fckleer, hidroelektrik ve yenilenebilir enerjinin pazar paylar\u0131 ise kategori baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5-7 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli soru<\/h2>\n

BP Group Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bob Dudley, rapora ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cBu rapor bizi \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli soruya y\u00f6neltiyor: Artan talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in yeterli enerji var m\u0131? Talebi g\u00fcvenilir bir \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131layabilir miyiz? Ve talebi kar\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 nelerdir? Yani, kaynaklar yeterli mi, g\u00fcvencede mi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir mi? \u0130lk soruya cevab\u0131m\u0131z \u201cEvet\u2019.\u201dG\u00fcvenlik ile ilgili soruya gelince, rapor, genel anlamda pozitif olmak \u00fczere kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de sergiliyor. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri enerji konusunda kendi kendine yetebilme yolunda ilerlerken, Avrupa, \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Asya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithali konusunda egemen b\u00f6lge olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00d6nemli t\u00fcketici b\u00f6lgelerinde a\u00e7\u0131lan yeni tedarik zincirleri ile birlikte, e\u011fer piyasan\u0131n kendi i\u015fini yapmas\u0131na izin verilirse, bu konuda endi\u015fe edilmesine gerek kalmayacak. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ile ilgili soruya gelince, t\u00fcm art\u0131\u015f\u0131n geli\u015fen ekonomilerden kaynaklanmas\u0131 ile global karbondioksit emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 29 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buraporda baz\u0131 pozitif i\u015faretler de belirtiliyor. Do\u011fal gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve petrolden pazar pay\u0131 kazanmas\u0131 nedeniyle emisyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve emisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015fmesi tahmin ediliyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fosil yak\u0131tlar egemen olacak<\/h2>\n

Rapor, global enerji talebinin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 1,5 oranla artmaya devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerdeki enerji t\u00fcketiminin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 69 daha fazla olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buna k\u0131yasla OECD \u00fclkelerindeki t\u00fcketim y\u00fczde 5 oran\u0131nda artacak ve s\u00fcregelen ekonomik art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen 2030 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra d\u00fc\u015fecek.Rapora g\u00f6re,yak\u0131t \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi geli\u015firken, fosil yak\u0131tlar egemen olmaya devam edecek. Petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar her birinin pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 26-27 oranlar\u0131nda bulu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve fosil olmayan yak\u0131tlar\u0131n \u2013 n\u00fckleer, hidroelektrik ve yenilenebilir enerji \u2013 her birinin ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 5-7 seviyelerine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Petrole talep yava\u015f artacak<\/h2>\n

Y\u0131lda ortalama sadece y\u00fczde 0,8\u2032lik talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile petrol\u00fcn 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar temel yak\u0131tlar aras\u0131nda en yava\u015f artan yak\u0131t olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. G\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 milyon varil ile petrol ve di\u011fer s\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131tlara olan talep, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek olacak. T\u00fcm net talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerden gelmesi bekleniyor. \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen talebin toplam\u0131, net talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelecek.2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar petrol ve di\u011fer s\u0131v\u0131 (biyoyak\u0131tlar d\u00e2hil) tedarikindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genel olarak Amerika K\u0131tas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131, Amerikan kaya petrol\u00fc, Kanada petrol kumlar\u0131 ve Brezilya derin deniz ve biyoyak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n artan \u00fcretiminin ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri azaltmas\u0131 ile OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerden kaynaklanacak.Yeni kaya petrol\u00fc kaynaklar\u0131 ile \u00fcretimdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticisi unvan\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019nin Suudi Arabistan\u2019dan devralmas\u0131 ile sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019nin petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n 2012 ve 2035 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 75 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. OPEC \u00fclkelerinin pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra azal\u0131p daha sonra tekrar artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaza talep en fazla sanayi ve enerjiden gelecek<\/h2>\n

Y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 1,9\u2032luk talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile do\u011fal gaz\u0131n, fosil yak\u0131tlar aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 artan yak\u0131t t\u00fcr\u00fc olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerin talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 78\u2032ini olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda sanayi ve enerji \u00fcretimi, talepteki en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fturacak. LNG ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 3,9\u2032luk oran ile gaz t\u00fcketiminin neredeyse iki kat\u0131ndan fazla h\u0131zda artmas\u0131 ve 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar global gaz tedarikinin y\u00fczde 26\u2032s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 bekleniyor.Kaya gaz\u0131 tedarikinin, gaz talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 46\u2032s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 ve 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fcnya gaz \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 21\u2032e ve ABD gaz \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 68\u2032ine tekab\u00fcl etmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kuzey Amerika kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerdeki \u00fcretimin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak Kuzey Amerika\u2019n\u0131n hala d\u00fcnya kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 71\u2032ini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da n\u00fckleer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olacak, yenilenebilir enerji artacak<\/h2>\n

2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar n\u00fckleer enerji \u00fcretiminin y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 1,9 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Beklenen n\u00fckleer tesis kapanmalar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da n\u00fckleer \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015ferken, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Rusya, k\u00fcresel n\u00fckleer enerji \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 96\u2032s\u0131ndan sorumlu olacak. \u00d6te yandan, hidroelektrik enerji \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Brezilya\u2019dan kaynaklanacak \u015fekilde 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 1,8 seviyesinde olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 6,4 oran\u0131nda artacak olan ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir pazar pay\u0131 kazanacak olan yenilenebilir enerjinin en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen enerji s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 olmaya devam etmesi bekleniyor. 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yenilenebilir enerjinin k\u00fcresel elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5\u2032ten y\u00fczde 14\u2032e y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. OECD ekonomileri yenilenebilir enerjideki art\u0131\u015fta ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerde yenilenebilir enerji \u00fcretimi bunlara yakla\u015f\u0131yor ve bu \u00fcretimin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar toplam \u00fcretimin y\u00fczde 45\u2032ine tekab\u00fcl etmesi bekleniyor. Biyoyak\u0131tlar da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar n\u00fckleer enerjiden daha y\u00fcksek birincil enerji pay\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Haberler<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.D\u00fcnya petrol devi BP\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c2035 Y\u0131l\u0131 Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d raporu geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin neden oldu\u011fu art\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen global enerji talebinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53,44],"tags":[853,92,63,970,67,1009,165,1800,1675,59],"views":731,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21819"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21819"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21819\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21822,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21819\/revisions\/21822"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}