{"id":19088,"date":"2013-12-10T11:08:46","date_gmt":"2013-12-10T08:08:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=19088"},"modified":"2013-12-10T11:08:46","modified_gmt":"2013-12-10T08:08:46","slug":"2014-elektrik-sektor-ve-hisseleri-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/2014-elektrik-sektor-ve-hisseleri-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) 2014 Elektrik Sekt\u00f6r ve Hisseleri Analizi…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Garanti Yat\u0131r\u0131m (www.garantiyatirim.com.tr) Taraf\u0131ndan Haz\u0131rlanan Y\u00f6netim Stratejisi Raporu:<\/strong><\/p>\n

2013 elektrik t\u00fcketiminin beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l oldu. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan Kas\u0131m verisine g\u00f6re 2013\u2019\u00fcn ilk 11 ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik t\u00fcketimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sadece %0.8 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmede, hem hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bile\u015fenleri etkili oldu. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise %2.5 olan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimize g\u00f6re, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck baz etkisine de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak elektrik t\u00fcketiminin %4 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

*Kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 sonunda 57GW olan kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc, Ekim sonu itibariyle 62GW seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Elektrik \u00fcretiminde %45 paya sahip do\u011falgaz santralleri i\u00e7in Ekim 2012\u2019den bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmeyen do\u011falgaz girdi fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, spot piyasadaki zay\u0131f elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 eski ve verimsiz santrallerin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zellikle verimsiz termik santrallerin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilecek. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ak Enerji\u2019nin devreye girecek 900MW kurulu g\u00fcce sahip olacak EGEMER do\u011falgaz santrali, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00f6nemli katk\u0131da bulunacak. *Elektrik \u00fcretim \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmeleri \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacak. 2014 Ocak ve \u015eubat aylar\u0131nda teklifleri toplanacak olan Kemerk\u00f6y, Yenik\u00f6y, \u00c7atala\u011fz\u0131 ve Yata\u011fan Termik Santralleri sonras\u0131nda \u00fcretim \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmeleri devam edecek. Bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan \u00fcretim \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmelerinde elde edilen gelir 3.3mlr ABD$ iken, tamamlanan da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmelerinden toplam has\u0131lat 12.8mlr ABD$ olmu\u015ftu<\/p>\n

AKENERJ\u0130<\/h2>\n

TUT Mevcut\/ 2014-sonu Hedef Fiyat: 1.28TL\/ 1.45TL<\/h2>\n

*2014-sonu hedef fiyat\u0131m\u0131z 1.45TL %13 art\u0131\u015f potansiyeli sunmaktad\u0131r. Ak Enerji 2014\u2019te portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck santrali devreye al\u0131rken, portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde ciddi de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fayacak. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda kar marj\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck santralini kapatan Ak Enerji, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni santrali ile sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yakalayacakt\u0131r. \u015eirket\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00f6l\u00e7ekten olumlu etkilenmesini beklerken, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk ile TUT tavsiyemizi koruyoruz.<\/p>\n

*Ak Enerji\u2019nin kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 900MW artacak. \u015eirket\u2019in mevcut 648MW olan kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc EGEMER santralinin devreye girmesi ile 1,548MW seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kacak. Kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn %58\u2019ini olu\u015fturan ve 9A13 \u00fcretiminin %59\u2019unun sa\u011flayan hidroelektrik santrallerin pay\u0131 yeni santral sonras\u0131nda %24 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015fecek. EGEMER, tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra ise hidroelektrik santrallerinin \u00fcretimdeki pay\u0131n\u0131n do\u011falgaz santrallerinin y\u00fcksek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma kapasitesiyle kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7teki pay\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n

*Di\u011fer do\u011falgaz santrallerinin karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. 2013 ba\u015f\u0131nda 98MW g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki \u00c7erkezk\u00f6y kojenerasyon do\u011falgaz santralinin faaliyetlerine son veren Ak Enerji, di\u011fer do\u011falgaz santrallerinin karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirecek.<\/p>\n

*FVA\u00d6K marj\u0131nda daralma bekliyoruz. 2013\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda artan hidrolektrik \u00fcretimi ile FVA\u00d6K marj\u0131ndaki 7 puan iyile\u015fme sonras\u0131nda, EGEMER\u2019in etkisi ile 2014\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kar marjlar\u0131nda daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

*Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk devam ediyor. Ak Enerji\u2019nin 3\u00c713 sonu itibariyle 1.6mlr TL net borcu bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u015eirket\u2019in faaliyet seviyesindeki iyile\u015fmeyenin net kar seviyesine yans\u0131mas\u0131 finansal giderler nedeniyle zaman alacak.<\/p>\n

AKSA ENERJ\u0130<\/h2>\n

TUT Mevcut\/ 2014-sonu Hedef Fiyat: 2.88TL\/ 3.40TL<\/h2>\n

*2014-sonu hedef fiyat\u0131m\u0131z 3.40TL %18 art\u0131\u015f potansiyeli sunmaktad\u0131r. Aksa Enerji, olumsuz sekt\u00f6r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ra\u011fmen, verimli santrallerinin ve elektrik ticaretinin etkisi ile karl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. \u015eirket, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde devreye girecek linyit santralleri ve hidroelektrik santraller ile karl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. *Sekt\u00f6rdeki olumsuzluklara ra\u011fmen marjlarda iyile\u015fme. \u015eirket d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden elektrik talebi ve spot piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 9A13 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda FVA\u00d6K marj\u0131n\u0131 7 puan art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. *Serbest t\u00fcketiciler art\u0131yor. \u015eirket d\u00fc\u015fen serbest t\u00fcketici limitleri ile serbest t\u00fcketici say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve garanti sat\u0131\u015f hacmini art\u0131rd\u0131. 3\u00c713 sonu itibariyle garanti y\u0131ll\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f hacmini 7TWh seviyesine y\u00fckseltti. Y\u00fcksek garanti sat\u0131\u015f hacmi sayesinde \u015eirket\u2019in ticaret hacmi de artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

*Artan halka a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k ve i\u015flem hacmi. Kazanc\u0131 Holding\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Aksa Enerji hisseleri sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda halka a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k oran\u0131 %21 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Artan halka a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k oran\u0131, i\u015flem hacmine de olumlu yans\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

*Yenilenebilir enerji ve linyitte b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. \u015eirketin yenilenebilir santrallerinin mevcut kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 203MW seviyesindedir. Yenilenebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra linyit yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na \u00f6nem veren Aksa Enerji, 2017 sonunda bu alanlarda toplam 1,008MW kurulu g\u00fcce ula\u015fmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Portf\u00f6ydeki do\u011falgaz santrallerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ile kar marj\u0131 iyile\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n

*Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk devam ediyor. Aksa Enerji\u2019nin 3\u00c713 sonu itibariyle 602mn ABD$ ve 147mn EUR a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00f6viz pozisyonu bulunmaktad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u015eirket\u2019in 1.4mlr TL seviyesinde olan net borcu de\u011ferleme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Garanti Yat\u0131r\u0131m (www.garantiyatirim.com.tr) Taraf\u0131ndan Haz\u0131rlanan Y\u00f6netim Stratejisi Raporu: 2013 elektrik t\u00fcketiminin beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l oldu. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan Kas\u0131m verisine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[11105,3762,1571,11107,11109,11106,68,61,130,19,63,67,1009,165,11103,11108,11104],"views":714,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19088"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19088"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19088\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19091,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19088\/revisions\/19091"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}