{"id":18950,"date":"2013-12-09T10:00:01","date_gmt":"2013-12-09T07:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=18950"},"modified":"2013-12-09T11:09:33","modified_gmt":"2013-12-09T08:09:33","slug":"kose-yazisi-iran-p51-anlasmasinin-petrol-boyutu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-iran-p51-anlasmasinin-petrol-boyutu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: \u0130ran-P5+1 Anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Petrol Boyutu…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Y\u0131llard\u0131r uygulanan m\u00fceyyidelerin, en \u00e7ok \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi apa\u00e7\u0131k bir ger\u00e7ek. Nitekim bu husus \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n P5+1 ile ge\u00e7en ay vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 6 ay s\u00fcreli ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fmada da yer al\u0131yor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n Amerikan versiyonunun (ba\u015fka var m\u0131 bilmem) \u2018\u0130ran \u00dczerindeki Ekonomik Bask\u0131y\u0131 Devam Ettirme ve M\u00fceyyideler Mimarisini Muhafaza Etme\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 maddesinde bu ba\u011flamda \u015f\u00f6yle deniyor:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Anla\u015fman\u0131n ilk safhas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda m\u00fceyyidelerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklar da d\u00e2hil \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 uygulamakta oldu\u011fumuz m\u00fceyyideleri s\u0131k\u0131 bir \u015fekilde uygulamaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen m\u00fceyyideler \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yapmaya devam edecektir. Milletleraras\u0131 ortaklar ile birlikte hareket ederek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 2012\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,5 milyon varil olan petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcn 1 milyon varile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, bu suretle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnde 1,5 milyon varil satma imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f bulunuyoruz. Bu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman yeniden kazanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 olmayan 80 milyar dolarl\u0131k kayb\u0131 demektir. Bu ilk ad\u0131m uyar\u0131nca, AB\u2019nin uygulamakta oldu\u011fu petrol al\u0131m yasa\u011f\u0131 devam edecek, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 1 milyon varilde tutulacak, bu da \u0130ran i\u00e7in her ay ve bundan sonraki aylarda ek 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f kayb\u0131 ile sonu\u00e7lanacakt\u0131r.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu verilere g\u00f6re bug\u00fcn \u0130ran m\u00fceyyideler sonucu g\u00fcnde sadece 1 milyon varil ham petrol s\"\"<\/a>atabiliyor. Oysa, m\u00fceyyidelerin ilk etkilerini g\u00f6stermesinden \u00f6nce bu miktar g\u00fcnde 4 milyon, 2012\u2019de ise 2,5 milyon varildi. K\u0131sacas\u0131 \u0130ran m\u00fceyyideler sonucu normalde 4 milyon varillik sat\u0131\u015ftan bug\u00fcn 1 milyon varile kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bulunuyor. Bu da \u0130ran ekonomisi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan muazzam bir kay\u0131p olarak duruyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran, \u015f\u00fcphesiz bu kayb\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en k\u0131sa zamanda telafi edebilmek, eski sat\u0131\u015f miktar\u0131na bir an \u00f6nce ula\u015fabilmek istiyor. Nitekim ge\u00e7en haftaki OPEC\u2019in (Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) \u00fcyelerinin kotalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi son Viyana toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ran Petrol Bakan\u0131 Bican Namdar Zangene bunu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirmi\u015f bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u2018\u2026Hangi \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda olursa olsun \u0130ran eski kotas\u0131n\u0131 (4 milyon varil) yeniden kazanacakt\u0131r. Fiyat 20 dolara d\u00fc\u015fse bile \u0130ran 4 milyon varil \u00fcretecektir.\u2019 \u015feklinde a\u00e7\u0131klama yapan Zangene b\u00f6ylece m\u00fceyyideler bir \u015fekilde kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne olursa olsun g\u00fcnde 4 milyon varil ham petrol \u00fcretip satmaya kararl\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden gayet net s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu da \u015f\u00fcphesiz bug\u00fcnk\u00fc OPEC \u00fcretiminin zaman geldi\u011finde artaca\u011f\u0131 ve belki de bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck 30 milyon varilin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir \u00fcretimin s\u00f6z konusu olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019a ilaveten Irak ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ham petrol ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusu. Irak bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 4 milyon varile (2020\u2019de 9-10 milyon varile) ula\u015fmay\u0131 hedefliyor; Libya da istikrara kavu\u015ftu\u011funda 2 milyon varile ula\u015fmay\u0131 umuyor. B\u00f6ylece, OPEC \u00fcretiminin daha artaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

OPEC \u00fcretimi \u015fayet bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplam kota olan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 30 milyon varili a\u015farsa bu \u015f\u00fcphesiz fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine otomatikman yol a\u00e7ar. Bunun olmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in de OPEC \u00fcyelerinin \u00fczerinde mutab\u0131k kal\u0131nan toplam kotaya uymalar\u0131 gerekir. Toplam kotan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmamas\u0131 da baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin kendi kotalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Bu konuda da \u015f\u00fcphesiz akla ilk gelen \u00fclke Suudi Arabistan. G\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 9-10 milyon varil ihra\u00e7 eden bu \u00fclke ve di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin \u0130ran, Irak ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n muhtemel ihracat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeleri halinde ya fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine seyirci kalmalar\u0131 ya da kendi kotalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp toplam kotan\u0131n muhafaza edilmesini ve b\u00f6ylece fiyatlar\u0131n normal seviyede kalmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamalar\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bir durumda, Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ne yapar, bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6ylemesi zor. Ancak, bu arada \u0130ranl\u0131 Bakan Zangene\u2019nin \u201820 dolara da d\u00fc\u015fse ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z.\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc de unutmamak gerekiyor. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u0130ran ile P5+1 aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fman\u0131n 6 ay sonra bir \u015fekilde kal\u0131c\u0131 anla\u015fma haline gelmesinin d\u00fcnya petrol piyasas\u0131na, fiyatlar\u0131na da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli etki yapabilece\u011fi bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, bug\u00fcn Suudi Arabistan ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki siyasi rekabetin o zaman petrol alan\u0131nda da kendini g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fman\u0131n bug\u00fcn pek akla gelmeyen; ama gelmesi gereken petrol boyutu da anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi.<\/p>\n

Yazan: Fikret Ertan<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Y\u0131llard\u0131r uygulanan m\u00fceyyidelerin, en \u00e7ok \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi apa\u00e7\u0131k bir ger\u00e7ek. Nitekim bu husus \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n P5+1 ile ge\u00e7en ay vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[8983,63,67,1009,165,1333,2558,1377,11046,59,79,6790,628,1463],"views":527,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18950"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18950"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18973,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18950\/revisions\/18973"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}