{"id":18671,"date":"2013-12-03T18:46:37","date_gmt":"2013-12-03T15:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=18671"},"modified":"2013-12-03T18:46:37","modified_gmt":"2013-12-03T15:46:37","slug":"yorum-cinin-enerjisini-yeniden-dengelemesi-yeni-bir-gazpolitik-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-cinin-enerjisini-yeniden-dengelemesi-yeni-bir-gazpolitik-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: \u00c7in\u2019in Enerjisini Yeniden Dengelemesi: Yeni Bir Gazpolitik mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomisi, istikrarl\u0131 bir geli\u015fme i\u00e7in enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almak \u00fczere \u00fclkedeki siyasi liderleri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00dclkedeki \u015fehirle\u015fme ve ekonomik yeniden dengelenmenin d\u00fcnya enerji piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacak. British Petroleum\u2019a (BP) g\u00f6re \u00c7in, ABD ya da Avrupa\u2019dan daha fazla enerji \u00fcretim-t\u00fcketim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na sahip olarak 2030\u2019da toplam enerji talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 25\u2019inden sorumlu olacak. \u00c7in\u2019in 2012\u2019deki enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 y\u00fczde 68 k\u00f6m\u00fcr, y\u00fczde 18 petrol ve sadece y\u00fczde 5 do\u011fal gazdan olu\u015fuyordu. Bu oranlar Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nde y\u00fczde 20 k\u00f6m\u00fcr, y\u00fczde 37 petrol ve y\u00fczde 30 do\u011fal gazd\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7o\u011fu \u00fclke enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 2020 senesine ba\u011flayarak planlad\u0131. Bu sene, \u00fclkelerin enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeleri ve k\u0131stas almalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. AB, birka\u00e7 \u00e7evre ve etkinlikle ilgili hedefler koymas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 2020\u2019ye kadar enerji piyasalar\u0131nda reforma gitmek ve i\u00e7 pazarlar\u0131n\u0131 entegre etmek \u00fczere Kas\u0131m 2010\u2019da h\u0131rsl\u0131 bir plan tasarlad\u0131. Kas\u0131m 2000\u2019de Rusya, hidrokarbon i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli ihracat ve \u00fcretim hedefleri belirleyerek 2020\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik Rusya Enerji Stratejisi\u2019nin Temel \u015eartlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 onaylad\u0131. Benzer \u015fekilde, \u00c7in\u2019in devlet planlama kurulu\u015fu Milli Kalk\u0131nma ve Reform Komisyonu (NDRC), 2020\u2019ye kadar \u00c7in\u2019in t\u00fcm enerji t\u00fcketim kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz\u0131n 2012\u2019de y\u00fczde 5 olan pay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karmak istiyor.<\/p>\n

Pekin \u00e7evresel fakt\u00f6rlerden dolay\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn yerine do\u011fal gaz yerle\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, \u00c7in\u2019in do\u011fal gaza y\u00f6nelik bu sald\u0131rgan aray\u0131\u015f\u0131, kaya gaz\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG pazarlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131r. Do\u011fal gaz k\u00f6m\u00fcre k\"\"<\/a>\u0131yasla daha az karbondioksit ve s\u0131f\u0131r s\u00fclf\u00fcr sal\u0131m\u0131 yapar. Bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, kirlilikten kaynaklanan ekonomik kay\u0131plar\u0131n 2010\u2019da 1,1 trilyon yuan oldu\u011fu tahmini yap\u0131l\u0131r. Bu, 2004\u2019tekinin iki kat\u0131ndan fazlad\u0131r. General Electric bir raporunda \u00c7in\u2019in, k\u00f6m\u00fcr yerine mevcut do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimini iki kat artt\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde 2025 civar\u0131nda \u00e7evresel maliyetlerden 820 milyar dolar tasarruf yapabilece\u011fini ifade etti. K\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7evre y\u00f6netiminden kaynaklanan iktisadi kay\u0131plar\u0131 daha belirgin olduk\u00e7a, k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc b\u0131rak\u0131p do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00c7in \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar artacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz\u0131n geleneksel yollarla naklediliyor olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve do\u011fal gaz birbiriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Do\u011fal gaz piyasalara iki yolla nakledilebilir: Boru hatlar\u0131yla ya da s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) \u015feklinde b\u00fcy\u00fck nakliye tankerleriyle. Do\u011fal gaz anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n, ithalat\u00e7\u0131larla ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131nda detayl\u0131 arz, zamanlama ve fiyat d\u00fczenlemeleri vard\u0131r. Do\u011fal gaz\u0131n kesintisiz arz\u0131 t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in esast\u0131r. Do\u011fal gaz d\u00fczenlemeleri bozulursa \u00fclkelerin alternatif arz kaynaklar\u0131 bulmalar\u0131 ya da i\u00e7 talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in depolama yapmalar\u0131 gerekir. \u00c7evreyle ilgili hedeflerini tutturmak i\u00e7in enerji terkibinde yeniden dengelemeye giderken \u00c7in\u2019in daha karma\u015f\u0131k enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Mevcut \u00c7in do\u011falgaz piyasas\u0131<\/h2>\n

\u00c7in 2007\u2019de net do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu. 2012\u2019de de Pekin, ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminin y\u00fczde 29\u2019unu ithal etti. \u00c7in\u2019de kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 yapabilir ama \u00fclke, ABD ya da Kanada\u2019daki al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olunmayan \u00fcretim seviyelerini ba\u015farmaktan \u00e7ok uzakt\u0131r. Mevzuatla ilgili engeller, ula\u015f\u0131m problemleri ve di\u011fer yak\u0131t ve geleneksel do\u011fal gaz, kaya gaz\u0131 geli\u015fiminde t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de devlete ait \u015firketlerin, kaya gaz\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karma y\u00f6ntemleri konusunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tecr\u00fcbesi var. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7o\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fck kaya gaz\u0131 rezerv b\u00f6lgeleri yerle\u015fim merkezlerinin yak\u0131n\u0131ndad\u0131r, bu da \u00e7\u0131karma i\u015flemini daha maliyetli ve m\u00fc\u015fk\u00fcl hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen \u00c7in, boru hatt\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131 ve LNG kapasitesine y\u00f6nelik yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulundu. \u00c7in\u2019in 2011 sonunda, yakla\u015f\u0131k 27.000 mil uzunlu\u011funda ana do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131 vard\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet 2015\u2019e kadar 24.000 mil yeni boru hatt\u0131 in\u015fa etmeyi planl\u0131yordu. \u00dclke zaten T\u00fcrkmenistan, \u00d6zbekistan ve Kazakistan\u2019dan gaz getiren Orta Asya Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 (CAGP) \u00fczerinden ilk uluslararas\u0131 do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 in\u015fa etmi\u015fti. Halen be\u015f LNG yeniden gaz haline getirme terminali var. \u0130n\u015fa halinde d\u00f6rt, birka\u00e7 da h\u00fck\u00fcmetten onay bekleyen terminalle toplam y\u0131lda 106 milyar metrek\u00fcpe (mmk) geni\u015fletme kapasitesi var.<\/p>\n

2020 Tahminleri<\/h2>\n

Altyap\u0131ya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen \u00c7in halen 2020 civar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk do\u011fal gaz enerji terkibi hedefini tutturmada ciddi engellerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. \u00c7in 2012\u2019de 144 mmk do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketti, 107 mmk \u00fcretti. Aradaki fark da Orta Asya\u2019dan ithalat (22 mmk) ve LNG\u2019den (20 mmk) kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi 2020\u2019de \u00c7in i\u00e7in nihai enerji t\u00fcketiminin 4,5 tmk olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. \u00c7in do\u011fal gaz hedefini tutturmak istiyorsa 2020\u2019ye do\u011fru kabaca 450 mmk do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketmelidir.<\/p>\n

Bu da 2012 seviyelerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 213 art\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in enerjisini yeniden dengelemesinin talep k\u0131sm\u0131, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden d\u00fcnyada artan LNG fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde h\u0131zla pahal\u0131 do\u011fal gaza d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini gerektiriyor. Bu da \u00c7in ekonomisi \u00fczerinde enflasyona yol a\u00e7acak bir ad\u0131m olur. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Japonya ve AB\u2019nin n\u00fckleer enerjiden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n da artan hidrokarbon ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in, i\u00e7 do\u011fal gaz talebini yeterince canland\u0131rabilse bile mevcut altyap\u0131yla bu talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamakta ciddi problemlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacakt\u0131r. Biz \u00c7in\u2019in in\u015fa edilen t\u00fcm LNG terminalleri ve halen in\u015fa edilmekte olan terminallerinin tamam\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ve geni\u015fletilmi\u015f kapasitelerinin y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcnden faydaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 farz etsek bile \u00fclkenin halen ya i\u00e7 \u00fcretimde art\u0131\u015f ya da boru hatlar\u0131ndan ithalatla kapatmas\u0131 gereken y\u0131lda 197 mmk a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olur. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k, 2012\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n toplam ihracat\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck, Avustralya, Endonezya, Malezya ve Yemen\u2019den (\u00c7in\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f LNG orta\u011f\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fc) yap\u0131lan ihracat\u0131n toplam\u0131n\u0131n da iki kat\u0131ndan fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in, arzdaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmak ve 2020 hedefini tutturmak ve enerji terkibini geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin standard\u0131na g\u00f6re dengelemek i\u00e7in h\u0131zla LNG ithalat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekecek. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji stratejisi, Orta Asya, Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan boru hatlar\u0131yla hidrokarbon elde etmede enerji diplomasisinin ne kadar etkili olaca\u011f\u0131na odaklanacak. \u00c7in\u2019in boru hatt\u0131 siyasetine giri\u015finin zaten mevcut boru hatt\u0131 dinami\u011fi \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli etkisi var. \u00c7in 2009\u2019da T\u00fcrkmenistan, \u00d6zbekistan ve Kazakistan\u2019dan gaz getiren CAGP\u2019yi in\u015fa etti. Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019a yap\u0131lan son ziyaret, Orta Asya Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lda 65 mmk geni\u015fletilmesiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya ve \u00c7in Eyl\u00fcl 2013\u2019te, 2018\u2019e kadar Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fu g\u00fczergah\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019e getirecek hukuken ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma imzalayarak enerji ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 kuvvetlendirdi. Baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler, \u00c7in\u2019in enerji talebi hakk\u0131nda \u0130ran-Pakistan-Hindistan boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e uzat\u0131l\u0131p uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 yap\u0131yorlar. Baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler de \u00c7in\u2019in Afganistan\u2019daki yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen bir TAPI hatt\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyorlar.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h2>\n

Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme enerji gerektiriyor. Her ne kadar NDRC\u2019den al\u0131nan son bilgiler do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketiminde \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterse de \u00c7in\u2019in 2020\u2019ye kadar do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketim terkibindeki y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk hedefini tutturabilmesi, arzdaki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrden do\u011fal gaza ge\u00e7i\u015fin y\u00fcksek maliyeti sebebiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Do\u011fal gaz arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019i b\u00f6lgede kendi \u201cgazpoliti\u011fini\u201d uygulamaya zorlayacak.<\/p>\n

Bu tarihi olarak Rusya, Orta Asya ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bir oyunuydu. Ama \u00c7in\u2019in Orta Asya\u2019yla geni\u015fleyen ba\u011flar\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n etkisine meydan okudu. \u0130ran gibi di\u011fer tedarik\u00e7iler de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir talep merkezi olarak \u00c7in\u2019e bakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00dclkenin do\u011fal gaz talebi, b\u00f6lgesel entegrasyon ve ayr\u0131\u015fmalarda \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Her hal\u00fckarda, \u00c7in\u2019in girift enerji yeniden dengelemesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda k\u00fcresel enerji yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek.<\/p>\n

\u00c7eviren: Arif Kaya \/ D\u00fcnya B\u00fclteni<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomisi, istikrarl\u0131 bir geli\u015fme i\u00e7in enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almak \u00fczere \u00fclkedeki siyasi liderleri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00dclkedeki \u015fehirle\u015fme ve ekonomik […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53],"tags":[886,10905,92,10904,226,2092,2452,63,67,1009,165,10903,2012,3547],"views":546,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18671"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18671"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18671\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18673,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18671\/revisions\/18673"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}