{"id":18245,"date":"2013-11-27T10:13:44","date_gmt":"2013-11-27T07:13:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=18245"},"modified":"2013-11-27T10:13:47","modified_gmt":"2013-11-27T07:13:47","slug":"kose-yazisi-iranin-piyasalara-getirdigi-iyimserlik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-iranin-piyasalara-getirdigi-iyimserlik\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Piyasalara Getirdi\u011fi \u0130yimserlik…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u0130RAN\u2019\u0131n BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma ile n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmay\u0131 kabul etmesi, d\u00fcnya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131na \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m oldu. Ekonomik alanda da hemen etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle haftaya olumlu ba\u015flamas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

FED\u2019in alaca\u011f\u0131 kararlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00e7eli\u015fkili tahminler ile gergin olan piyasalar \u0130ran\u2019la sa\u011flanan anla\u015fmayla birlikte rahat bir nefes ald\u0131 diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa geli\u015fmelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn genel olarak hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na ve kurlara olumlu yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Rusya, Brezilya ve Endonezya gibi petrol \u00fcreticisi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin olumsuz etkilendi\u011fi, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinin ise de\u011ferlendi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. D\u00fcn i\u00e7eride dolar kurunun uzun zamandan sonra ilk kez 2 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesinin nedeni de bu anla\u015fma idi.<\/p>\n

Peki, \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fman\u0131n piyasalara olumlu etkisi ne kadar s\u00fcrer?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bence fazla s\u00fcrmeyecektir. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce uygulanan ambargo yumu\u015fat\u0131lsa bile, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretiminin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde eski seviyesine gelme imkan\u0131 bulunma\"\"<\/a>d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor. Bir miktar \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r ama bunun d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek boyutta olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor. Ayr\u0131ca bu anla\u015fman\u0131n bir 6 ayl\u0131k deneme mahiyetinde oldu\u011fu kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken \u00e7ok ad\u0131m oldu\u011fu da unutulmamal\u0131. Bar\u0131\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimini daha \u00f6nceki seviyeye getirmesi i\u00e7in bile an az\u0131ndan 1 y\u0131l\u0131n ge\u00e7ece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel sisteme ciddi bir enerji arz\u0131 sunabilmesi, daha do\u011frusu sisteme tam olarak entegre olabilmesi i\u00e7in ise d\u0131\u015f kaynaklar\u0131n \u201cEn az\u0131ndan 5 y\u0131l sonras\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in tarih verdi\u011fini de g\u00f6zard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131 ki; k\u00fcresel ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131 , k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ciddi art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in de, yine 5 y\u0131l sonras\u0131 hedef g\u00f6steriliyor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle k\u00fcresel sistem ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck program\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yor ve \u0130ran\u2019la yap\u0131lan anla\u015fman\u0131n, k\u00fcresel sistemin ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 zamana g\u00f6re planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 da bu arz ve talep tahminleri g\u00f6zetilerek yap\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inecek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Rusya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, bir \u00e7ok \u00fcretici \u00fclkenin mali dengelerini bozacak diye korkuluyor. ABD ve Bat\u0131 bir yandan sisteme yeniden arz kaynaklar\u0131 planlarken, \u00f6te yandan mevcut \u00fcretici \u00fclkeleri zor durumda b\u0131rakmak istemiyor ve dengeyi de bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6zeterek kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu kapsamda k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede Irak enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesi, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir s\u00fcrede bu i\u015fe h\u0131z verilmesi, k\u0131p\u0131rdanacak k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin buradan kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 \u0130ran enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ise as\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 5 y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yorumlar\u0131, hi\u00e7 de yabana at\u0131lmayacak yorumlar.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda meydana gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ciddi rakamlara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bizim gibi \u00fclkelerde \u00e7ok ciddi fatura d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek fazla iyimserlik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki k\u0131sa ve orta d\u00f6nemde piyasalarda BM ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin ge\u00e7ici olma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Bu ge\u00e7ici iyimserlik havas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yine FED\u2019in ne zaman ve ne kadarl\u0131k bir tahvil program\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131 verece\u011fine kilitlenmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z,\u00a0\u0130ran ile sa\u011flanan uzla\u015fman\u0131n d\u00fcnya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131na \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye siyasi ve ekonomik etkisini ise tart\u0131\u015fmaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Yazan: Erdal Sa\u011flam<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u0130RAN\u2019\u0131n BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma ile n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmay\u0131 kabul etmesi, d\u00fcnya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131na \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m oldu. Ekonomik alanda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[2987,63,67,1009,165,8811,1333,10688,59,79,347],"views":526,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18245"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18248,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18245\/revisions\/18248"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}