{"id":174147,"date":"2023-05-05T10:21:57","date_gmt":"2023-05-05T07:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=174147"},"modified":"2023-05-05T10:34:48","modified_gmt":"2023-05-05T07:34:48","slug":"fiyat-dalgalanmalari-ve-arz-guvenligi-riskleri-enerjiyi-yeni-eksene-tasidi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/fiyat-dalgalanmalari-ve-arz-guvenligi-riskleri-enerjiyi-yeni-eksene-tasidi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Fiyat Dalgalanmalar\u0131 ve Arz G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Riskleri Enerjiyi Yeni Eksene Ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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KPMG ve Enerji IQ i\u015f birli\u011fi ile haz\u0131rlanan \u201cEnerji Sekt\u00f6rel Bak\u0131\u015f 2022\u201d raporu T\u00fcrkiye’nin elektrik, do\u011fal gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair \u00f6nemli bilgilere yer veriliyor. Rapora g\u00f6re 2022 y\u0131l\u0131, fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fiyle ilgili artan rikslerin etkisiyle elektrik ve do\u011fal gaz piyasalar\u0131nda bir eksen de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine neden oldu. Piyasalardaki \u015fok dalgalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel bazda ge\u00e7ici s\u00fcre i\u00e7in devreye al\u0131nan reg\u00fclasyonlarla dengelenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve de\u011fi\u015fimi oda\u011f\u0131na alan yeni piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, orta ve uzun vadede yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, enerji tedarik altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve sekt\u00f6rdeki i\u015f modellerini yeniden \u015fekillendirmesi bekleniyor.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u015eirketlere dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k alan\u0131nda teknoloji temelli hizmetler sunan KPMG<\/strong> ve enerji piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bilgi ve dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k hizmetleri<\/strong> veren Enerji IQ<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan ortak haz\u0131rlanan, T\u00fcrkiye’deki enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyan \u201cEnerji Sekt\u00f6rel Bak\u0131\u015f\u201d<\/strong> raporu yay\u0131mland\u0131. Global ve yerel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra son k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanan raporda, T\u00fcrkiye’nin elektrik, do\u011fal gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair \u00f6nemli \"\"bilgilere yer veriliyor.<\/p>\n

Raporla ilgili de\u011ferlendirmede bulunan KPMG T\u00fcrkiye Petrol ve Do\u011fal Gaz Lideri Hakan Demirelli<\/strong>, \u201cEnerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00fcresel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde. 2022 sonu itibar\u0131 ile d\u00fcnyada 300’den fazla \u015firketin k\u00fcresel bir giri\u015fim olan RE100<\/strong>‘e kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 100 ye\u015fil enerji \u00fcretim taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde<\/strong> bulundu\u011fu belirtiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye’de de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sekt\u00f6rler genelinde ye\u015fil enerji uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u201d<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

KPMG T\u00fcrkiye Elektrik ve Altyap\u0131 Lideri Orhan Turan <\/strong>ise raporu, \u201cYe\u015fil enerjiye ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli ve \u00f6ncelikli g\u00fcndem maddelerinden. Bu s\u00fcrecin do\u011fru ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilmesi i\u00e7in ye\u015fil finansman uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekli. Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru pozisyon alarak ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm projelerine yeterli kayna\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli.\u201d<\/em> \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

Enerji IQ Bilgi Servisleri Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Emre Ert\u00fcrk<\/strong> de de\u011ferlendirmesinde \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201cRusya ve Ukrayna aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan sorun, enerji piyasas\u0131nda Avrupa merkezli bir de\u011fi\u015fim ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm dalgas\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn etkileri, art\u0131k co\u011frafi a\u00e7\u0131dan b\u00f6lgeye uzak piyasalarda da g\u00f6zlemlenebiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131 da bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde. Nitelikli bilgiye; do\u011fru, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve zaman\u0131nda er\u015fim, risk y\u00f6netimi ve stratejik karar mekanizmalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Enerji IQ Bilgi Servisleri \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm Orta\u011f\u0131 Alper \u00d6zmumcu <\/strong>ise raporla ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini \u015f\u00f6yle aktard\u0131: \u201cVerilere dayanarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizler, bize piyasan\u0131n gelece\u011fi ad\u0131na matematiksel temele dayal\u0131 somut ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veriyor. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n temel konular\u0131na raporda yer vererek gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck bir perspektifle 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 inceledik.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc CEO’lar\u0131 olas\u0131 bir resesyona haz\u0131r<\/strong>
\nRapora g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc CEO’lar\u0131 2022 ve sonras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir resesyona haz\u0131r. CEO’lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 87’si \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7erisinde bir resesyon ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. CEO’lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 57’si bu resesyonun hafif ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken y\u00fczde 75’i \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 y\u0131lda ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tersine \u00e7evirece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. CEO’lara endi\u015fe ettikleri en b\u00fcy\u00fck riskler soruldu\u011funda; faiz oranlar\u0131, enflasyon ve resesyon ilk 3 s\u0131ray\u0131 al\u0131yor. Buna ra\u011fmen, enerji CEO’lar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011fu, \u015firketlerinin, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ve k\u00fcresel ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda olduk\u00e7a iyimser. CEO’lar artan belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor ve uzun vadeli, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Enerjide ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u015firketlerin g\u00fcndeminde<\/strong>
\nEnerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn de art\u0131k kritik ve kilit bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, 2022 sonu itibar\u0131 ile d\u00fcnyada 300’den fazla \u015firketin k\u00fcresel bir giri\u015fim olan RE100’e kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 100 ye\u015fil enerji \u00fcretim taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulundu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Baz\u0131 \u015firketler de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu, hatta net s\u0131f\u0131r karbonlu bir ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in iddial\u0131 karbon azaltma hedefleri belirledi. Yenilenebilir enerji sertifikas\u0131 da kurumlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan yenilenebilir enerji temin ettiklerini kan\u0131tlayan bir sertifika t\u00fcr\u00fc olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de IREC Yenilenebilir Enerji Sertifika sistemine kay\u0131tl\u0131 aktif santral say\u0131s\u0131 390’a ula\u015f\u0131rken toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 7 GW’\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. T\u00fcrkiye Ulusal Enerji Plan\u0131’n\u0131 hakk\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilin de yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, plandaki projeksiyona g\u00f6re \u00fclkemizde 2020 \u2013 2035 d\u00f6neminde elektrik t\u00fcketiminin 510,4 TWh’e y\u00fckselece\u011fi, elektrikteki kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn ise bug\u00fcnk\u00fc 103,5 GW’tan 189,7 MW’a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Birincil enerji t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7indeki yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 art\u0131yor<\/strong>
\nT\u00fcrkiye’nin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 birincil enerji t\u00fcketimi 147,2 Mtep olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, Ulusal Enerji Plan\u0131’na g\u00f6re bu miktar\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 205,3 Mtep’e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Birincil enerji t\u00fcketimi 2000 – 2020 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 3,1 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 2020 – 2035 d\u00f6neminde ise y\u00fczde 2,2 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 16,7 olan birincil enerji t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7indeki yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23,7’ye y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. N\u00fckleer enerji pay\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 5,9 olaca\u011f\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 83,3 olan fosil kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 70,4 oran\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr pay\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 21,4’e do\u011fal gaz\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 22,5’e gerileyece\u011fi tahmin edilirken petrol\u00fcn pay\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 26,5 olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Nihai enerji t\u00fcketiminde sanayinin pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor<\/strong>
\n2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 105,5 Mtep olan nihai enerji t\u00fcketimin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 148,5 Mtep’e y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 34,4 ile nihai t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek paya sahip olan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pay\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 38,7’ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Mesken ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam y\u00fczde 40,1’lik pay\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 34,9’a gerileyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Elektrik t\u00fcketimi 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 510,5 TWh seviyesine ula\u015facak<\/strong>
\n2000 – 2020 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 4,4 artarak 128 TWh’ten 306,1 TWh’e y\u00fckselen elektrik t\u00fcketiminin ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 3,5 d\u00fczeyinde artarak 510,5 TWh seviyesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tahmin d\u00f6nemi boyunca y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 3,7, meskenlerde y\u00fczde 2,3, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 2,2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama elektrik t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda nihai enerji t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 21,8’lik orana sahip elektrik enerjisinin pay\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 24,9’a ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. \u00d6te yandan 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda elektrik \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 11,7 oran\u0131na sahip kesintili yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar kademeli olarak y\u00fczde 34,3’e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda elektrik \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 42,4 olan yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 54,8’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Hidroelektrik santrallerinin pay\u0131n\u0131n ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 17,3’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimi azald\u0131<\/strong>
\n2022 y\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcresince ithalat ve tedarik k\u0131sm\u0131nda BOTA\u015e’\u0131n domine etti\u011fi do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmazken BOTA\u015e’\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131nda Bulgaristan’a boru hatt\u0131 ile do\u011fal gaz ihra\u00e7 etmesi \u00fczerine, ithalat ve ihracattaki olas\u0131 potansiyeli de\u011ferlendirmek isteyen \u015firketlerin EPDK’ya yapt\u0131klar\u0131 lisans ba\u015fvurular\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlendi. Ancak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda piyasadaki pay\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki sene ula\u015f\u0131lan seviyenin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimi, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9,8 azalarak 53,04 bcm’e geriledi. T\u00fcketimdeki gerilemede, ba\u015fta rezervuarl\u0131 hidroelektrik santrallerinden ve di\u011fer yenilenebilir kaynaklardan \u00fcretilen elektrik enerjisi miktar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla, santrallerin do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminin azalmas\u0131 temel etken oldu.<\/p>\n

ABD, T\u00fcrkiye’nin en y\u00fcksek paya sahip LNG tedarik\u00e7ilerinden oldu<\/strong>
\nDo\u011fal gaz ithalat\u0131nda ise Rusya, 21,57 bcm ile en y\u00fcksek paya sahip \u00fclke konumunu korudu. BOTA\u015e’\u0131n Azerbaycan ile olan 6,6 bcm\/y miktarl\u0131 kontrat\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcresinin nisan 2021 tarihinde sona ermesi, Azerbaycan’dan ithal edilen do\u011fal gaz miktar\u0131n\u0131 biraz azaltt\u0131. Ancak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, spot boru gaz\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ile bir miktar dengelendi. Toplam do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde spot LNG’nin pay\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD’yi 5,64 bcm ithalat ile T\u00fcrkiye’nin en y\u00fcksek paya sahip d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc tedarik\u00e7isi konumuna getirdi. ABD, 9,40 bcm paya sahip \u0130ran ve 8,70 bcm hacimli Azerbaycan’\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131. Be\u015finci s\u0131rada ise 5,26 bcm ile Cezayir yer ald\u0131. D\u00fcnya do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde ise en \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan konu, Rusya’n\u0131n Bulgaristan’a ve Polonya’ya ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi do\u011fal gaz\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, ruble cinsinden \u00f6deme yap\u0131lma talebinin kabul g\u00f6rmemesi \u00fczerine durdurmas\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Raporun tamam\u0131na ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in T\u0131klay\u0131n>><\/a><\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. KPMG ve Enerji IQ i\u015f birli\u011fi ile haz\u0131rlanan \u201cEnerji Sekt\u00f6rel Bak\u0131\u015f 2022\u201d raporu T\u00fcrkiye’nin elektrik, do\u011fal gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":174149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,51,53,49,50],"tags":[76965,109198,26456,109199],"views":57,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174147"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174147\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/174149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}