{"id":16732,"date":"2013-10-22T17:08:25","date_gmt":"2013-10-22T14:08:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=16732"},"modified":"2013-10-22T17:09:09","modified_gmt":"2013-10-22T14:09:09","slug":"dunya-enerji-konseyinin-2050%e2%80%b2ye-dair-2-enerji-senaryosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/dunya-enerji-konseyinin-2050%e2%80%b2ye-dair-2-enerji-senaryosu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi\u2019nin 2050\u2032ye Dair 2 Enerji Senaryosu!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi(WEC)\u2019nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131n hala b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, olu\u015fturulan 2 senaryoda da arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131layabilmesi i\u00e7in verimlili\u011fin artmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fart oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylendi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raporda 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131 senaryolar farkl\u0131 iki m\u00fczik t\u00fcr\u00fcnden ilham ald\u0131: Jazz ve Senfoni.<\/p>\n

Jazz senaryosunda, bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 y\u0131l sonra enerji piyasas\u0131na t\u00fcketici isteklerinin y\u00f6n verece\u011fi varsay\u0131ld\u0131. Senfoni senaryosunda ise \u00e7evre ile ilgili kayg\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6ne plana \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 bu y\u00fczden enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 hassas se\u00e7menlerin \u015fekillendirilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Konseye g\u00f6re enerji ile ilgili kararlar\u0131, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi gereken \u00fc\u00e7 sorun bi\u00e7imlendiriyor. \u00c7evresel s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve enerji sermayesi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan konular hem birbirlerini etkilerken, bazen bir tanesini \u00e7\u00f6zmek di\u011ferini olumsuz etkileyebiliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u00e7evre kayg\u0131lar\u0131, enerji \u00fcretimini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken enerji sermayesini azaltabiliyor.<\/p>\n

Jazz Senaryosu<\/h2>\n

Jazz karakteristik olarak grup halinde oldu\u011fu gibi sololarla da ayr\u0131 bir renk bulan, do\u011fa\u00e7lamaya ve de\u011fi\u015fik aletlerin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fi bir m\u00fczik t\u00fcr\u00fc. Bu senaryoda petrol stratejilerine ise t\u00fcketicilerin istekleri, daha \u00e7ok insan\u0131n enerjiye eri\u015fiminin sa\u011flanmas\u0131, fiyat ve kalite \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Serbest ticaret \u00f6nceli\u011fi al\u0131rken, d\u00fcnyada enerji ticaretinin de artaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi. Yenilenebilir enerji ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbon sal\u0131n\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler piyasa tercihlerine g\u00f6re geli\u015fecek. Enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131nda tercih sebepleri fiyat ve kolay eri\u015fim olacak.<\/p>\n

Bununla beraber, uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalarla g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nan vaatlerin olmamas\u0131 karbon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha a\u011f\u0131r geli\u015fmesine neden olacak. Artan k\u00fcresel rekabet y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00e7evreyle ilgili kayg\u0131lar arka planda kalacak.<\/p>\n

Jazz senaryosuna g\u00f6re 2050\u2032de ba\u015fl\u0131ca piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketler, bankalar, giri\u015fim sermayesi \u015firketleri ve fiyat hassasiyeti fazla t\u00fcketicilerin olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Teknolojiye ise rekabet \u015fekil verecek.<\/p>\n

Senfoni Senaryosu<\/h2>\n

Kompleks ve yap\u0131s\u0131 belli olan m\u00fczik par\u00e7alar\u0131 olan senfoniler orkestra i\u00e7in yaz\u0131l\u0131r. Bu orkestraya \u015fef liderlik ederken 80 kadar m\u00fczisyen ise kendi b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerine odaklan\u0131r. Bu enerji senaryosunda ise \u015fef \u00e7evre hassasiyeti ve enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi talep eden se\u00e7menlerdir.<\/p>\n

Ulusal stratejiler enerji ticaretinin azalmas\u0131na neden olurken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetler yenilenebilir enerjileri aktif bir \u015fekilde destekleyecektir. Gelece\u011fi oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen yeni teknolojiler s\u00fcbvansiyonlarla geli\u015firken, karbon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n da uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalarla belirlenece\u011fi varsay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Enerji \u00fcretiminin daha az olmas\u0131 nedeniyle milli gelirlerdeki art\u0131\u015f daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak ve ba\u015fl\u0131ca enerji piyasas\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri devletler, kamu \u015firketleri, NGOlar, ve \u00e7evre bilinci y\u00fcksek se\u00e7menler olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Teknolojiye ise devlet y\u00f6n verecektir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ki senaryonun kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/h2>\n

2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda enerji haritas\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden \u00e7ok farl\u0131 somutla\u015facakt\u0131r. Talebe cevap vermek \u00f6ncelik olacakt\u0131r. WEC, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun Jazz senaryosuna g\u00f6re 8,7 milyar olurken, di\u011fer senaryoda 9,4 milyara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmektedir. Yani bug\u00fcnk\u00fc 7 milyar olan d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu y\u00fczde 24-34 aras\u0131 artacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2010\u2032da 9000 dolar olan k\u00fcresel ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir de daha serbest piyasa senaryosu olan Jazz da 23000, devletin daha aktif olarak rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Senfoni senaryosunda ise 18000 olacakt\u0131r. 1000 ki\u015fiye d\u00fc\u015fen araba say\u0131s\u0131 da 124\u2032ten, ilk senaryoya g\u00f6re 244 ve ikinci senaryoya g\u00f6re 193\u2032e y\u00fckselecektir.<\/p>\n

Enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n, Jazz senaryosunda y\u00fczde 61 artaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131rken, Senfoni senaryosunda ise art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 27\u2032de kalacakt\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekirse 1990 ile 2010 aras\u0131nda enerji t\u00fcketimi y\u00fczde 45 artt\u0131. E\u011fer enerji talebi bu h\u0131zla artarsa her iki senaryoda da arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi(WEC)\u2019nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131n hala b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, olu\u015fturulan 2 senaryoda da arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131layabilmesi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15425,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[9764,1615,3988,936,9763,63,1238,67,232,1009,9765,165,9760,3444,148,9761,1986,9762,9766,9759,1146,105],"views":659,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16732"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16732"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16736,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16732\/revisions\/16736"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}