{"id":165383,"date":"2022-12-18T14:45:54","date_gmt":"2022-12-18T11:45:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=165383"},"modified":"2022-12-18T14:51:44","modified_gmt":"2022-12-18T11:51:44","slug":"turkiye-imsad-gundem-bulusmalarinda-2023-beklentileri-konusuldu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/turkiye-imsad-gundem-bulusmalarinda-2023-beklentileri-konusuldu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD G\u00fcndem Bulu\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019nda 2023 Beklentileri Konu\u015fuldu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenledi\u011fi \u201854. G\u00fcndem Bulu\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019nda, T\u00fcrkiye OECD Daimi Temsilcisi B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin ve T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ekonomi Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n moderat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlenen T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ba\u015fkan Vekili Ferdi Erdo\u011fan, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Ye\u015fil Mutabakat ve s\u0131n\u0131rda karbon vergisi uygulamay\u0131 ba\u015flatma plan\u0131na ra\u011fmen artan \u015fekilde fosil yak\u0131tlara y\u00f6nelmesine, Rusya -Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ile ba\u015flayan enerji krizi ve emtia milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD\u00a0<\/strong>(T\u00fcrkiye \u0130n\u015faat Malzemesi Sanayicileri Derne\u011fi) taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen y\u0131l\u0131n son\u00a0\u2018G\u00fcndem Bulu\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019<\/strong>,\u00a015 Aral\u0131k Per\u015fembe<\/strong> g\u00fcn\u00fc Demird\u00f6k\u00fcm\u2019\u00fcn katk\u0131lar\u0131yla online olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Moderat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ba\u015fkan Vekili Ferdi Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da T\u00fcrkiye OECD Daimi Temsilcisi B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong> ile T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ekonomi Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini ve 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na \"\"y\u00f6nelik beklentilerini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ba\u015fkan Vekili Ferdi Erdo\u011fan\u00a0<\/strong>a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda herkesin hedeflerinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise beklenmeyen Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hedefleri zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. B\u00fct\u00e7e konusunda kestirim yapman\u0131n zorluklar\u0131ndan s\u00f6z eden Ferdi Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz s\u00fcre\u00e7te se\u00e7im g\u00fcndeminin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ekonominin ise ikinci plana d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131. Ferdi Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>, \u201cRusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomide pek \u00e7ok dengeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. K\u00fcreselle\u015fmeden b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fmeye ge\u00e7i\u015f etkisiyle k\u00fcresel enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de y\u00fcksek enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye, Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde en y\u00fcksek enflasyonda ilk s\u0131rada, Asya B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde en y\u00fcksek enflasyonda 3. s\u0131rada, d\u00fcnyada ise ilk 10\u2019da bulunuyor. \u0130n\u015faat malzemeleri ihracat\u0131<\/strong>nda bu y\u0131l 35<\/strong> milyar dolara ula\u015fma beklentimiz, son aylarda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle, 34,9<\/strong> milyar dolar seviyesine kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 34,3<\/strong> milyar seviyelerine geriledi. Ortalama birim fiyatlarda art\u0131\u015f var ancak hem \u00fcretimde hem de ihracatta miktar baz\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler var\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve maliyetleri konusunda farkl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Ye\u015fil Mutabakat\u2019a ra\u011fmen fosil yak\u0131tlara y\u00f6neli\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Ferdi Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye dahil baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin, i\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in emtia ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurma ya da k\u0131s\u0131tlama yoluna gitti\u011fini, artan emtia milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekerek, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu konunun daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Ferdi Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>, de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin belirsizli\u011fi nedeniyle bu y\u0131l b\u00fct\u00e7e yapman\u0131n da \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7 olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/strong>K\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi konusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrkiye OECD Daimi Temsilcisi B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin\u00a0<\/strong>ise T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD 50. G\u00fcndem Bulu\u015fmalar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da de\u011findi\u011fi \u201c2 Siyah Ku\u011fu\u201dnun etkilerinin devam etti\u011fini, Covid-19 pandemisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ekonomi \u00e7evreleri taraf\u0131ndan, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6receli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olarak alg\u0131lanan bir \u2018risk\u2019in bir anda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi yani \u201csiyah ku\u011fu\u201d olarak nitelendirildi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Bug\u00fcnlerde OECD ve uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evrelerde g\u0131da arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli konular\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda tar\u0131m ve g\u0131dada \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin gelece\u011finin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu ba\u015fl\u0131klarda in\u015faat malzemesi sanayicilerine de \u00f6nemli g\u00f6revler d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini belirtti. Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong>, \u201cT\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da arz krizine y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirme ve toplant\u0131lar, modern tarihin en a\u011f\u0131r k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da krizi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fumuzu teyit eden tespitlere sahne olmakta. \u0130ki k\u00fcresel krizin birbiriyle ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 temel ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir araya geldi\u011fi bu \u201ckriz \u00fc\u00e7geni\u201d ile \u201c3C\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor: \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (Climate), Kovid-19 K\u00fcresel Vir\u00fcs Salg\u0131n\u0131 (Covid), Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 (Conflict). Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Koridoru \u0130nisiyatifi\u2019nin g\u0131da krizine olumlu etkileri oldu. T\u00fcrkiye olarak kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z toplant\u0131larda bu olu\u015fum i\u00e7in tebrik al\u0131yoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019da enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan baz\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar y\u00fckseldi\u011fini dile getiren Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong>, \u201cEnerji verimlili\u011fini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yal\u0131t\u0131m seferberli\u011finin ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131, \u0131s\u0131 pompalar\u0131 gibi enerji verimlili\u011fini art\u0131racak \u00fcr\u00fcnlere \u00f6nem verilmesi, \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n tamamen elektrik enerjisi ile olmas\u0131 ve yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlere odaklan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk in\u015faat malzemesi sanayisinin \u00fcretti\u011fi malzemelere ihtiya\u00e7 olacak, burada \u00f6nemli bir potansiyel bulunuyor\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/strong>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 zor ge\u00e7ecek\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130MSAD Ekonomi Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>\u00a0ise \u201c\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel ekonomi, \u2018\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u2019, \u2018Salg\u0131n ve yeni normal\u2019, \u201840 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyonu\u2019, \u2018Avrupa\u2019daki sava\u015f ve jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lma\u2019, \u2018Enerji ve g\u0131da krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ya\u015fam maliyeti krizi\u2019\u00a0ve \u201820 y\u0131l sonra parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve resesyon endi\u015fesi\u2019\u00a0<\/em>ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n hepsinin birden y\u00f6netilmesini kaps\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2023 g\u00fcndemini y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131, resesyon\/durgunluk\/yava\u015flama beklentileri, enerji ve g\u0131da krizi olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 olu\u015fturacak\u201d dedi. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flan\u0131ncaya kadar merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rmaya devam edeceklerini s\u00f6yleyen Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, \u201cMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te de enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha kat\u0131 olmaya devam edeceklerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2. \u00e7eyrekte enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flan\u0131rsa y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 daha iyi ge\u00e7ecektir. 2024\u2019te de faiz indirimleri ba\u015flayabilir. Enerji ve g\u0131da taraflar\u0131 belirli d\u00fczeyde y\u00f6netiliyor, burada fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fanmazsa mart ay\u0131ndan sonra kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi var. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrecek ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma zirveye \u00e7\u0131kacak. Nisandan itibaren rahatlama ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, in\u015faat malzemesi sipari\u015flerinin yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, 2. \u00e7eyrekte dura\u011fan, 3. \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ve son \u00e7eyrekte de art\u0131\u015f rotas\u0131 izleyece\u011fini, ilk 6 ayda i\u00e7 pazar talebi ile ilerlenece\u011fini, sonraki aylarda k\u00fcresel ekonomideki iyile\u015fmenin ihracat sipari\u015flerine yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Avrupa\u2019da beklenen enerji tasarrufu uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye talep yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, k\u0131\u015f\u0131n sert ge\u00e7mesi durumunda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7im ekonomisinin etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirten Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, \u201cAsgari \u00fccretin 8 bin 500 TL olmas\u0131n\u0131, di\u011fer \u00fccretlerde de y\u00fczde 35-50 oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyece\u011fi fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yeni y\u00fcksek maliyetlerle birlikte y\u00fcksek enflasyonla se\u00e7ime girece\u011fiz. Haziran\u2019da T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 50-55 civar\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ediyor. \u00d6te yandan geleneksel olmayan kanallardan d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat hesaplar\u0131nda da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7iliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinde se\u00e7ime kadar bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklentisi yok. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda ise i\u015fler biraz daha kar\u0131\u015facak. Geleneksel olmayan finansmandan sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 finansmana d\u00f6nmek, risk primini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir program gerekiyor. 50-60 milyar dolarl\u0131k sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir finansman olmadan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk priminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenmiyor. Dolarda da ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin kontrol senaryosunda Haziran 2023\u2019te 19 TL, kontrol senaryosuna ra\u011fmen ba\u015fka etkenlerle Haziran 2023\u2019te 20 TL, kriz senaryosunda ise ilk \u00e7eyrekte 25 TL olarak 3 tahmin bulunuyor\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Dr. Can Fuat G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong>, b\u00fct\u00e7e yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u015firketlere de belirsizlikler nedeniyle y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e yerine 3+3 ay \u015feklinde 6 ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e ya da erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131 olursa 4 ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerisini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n