{"id":161028,"date":"2022-08-25T15:24:55","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T12:24:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=161028"},"modified":"2022-08-25T15:50:56","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T12:50:56","slug":"avrupa-nin-elektrik-krizi-gaz-krizi-nin-yerini-aliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/avrupa-nin-elektrik-krizi-gaz-krizi-nin-yerini-aliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Elektrik Krizi Gaz Krizinin Yerini Al\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Avrupa \u015fu anda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 bir gaz ve elektrik kriziyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Artan gaz maliyetlerinin elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin etkisiyle bu daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Daha az dikkat \u00e7eken di\u011fer nokta, gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni ani art\u0131\u015fa neden olan, h\u0131zla ivmelenmekte olan elektrik krizidir.<\/h2>\n

Rus arz dinamikleri jeopoliti\u011fi, \u015fu anda k\u00fcresel man\u015fetlere hakim durumda. Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Avrupa’n\u0131n<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015fman<\/strong> bir kom\u015fudan gelen ucuz<\/strong> hidrokarbonlara<\/strong> ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Rusya<\/strong>‘n\u0131n Avrupa<\/strong>‘ya arz\u0131 kesmesi<\/strong>, 2022<\/strong>‘nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Avrupa<\/strong> genelinde gaz \"\"fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici g\u00fcc\u00fc<\/strong> oldu.<\/p>\n

Avrupa’n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 elektrik krizi<\/strong> yaz boyunca h\u0131z kazand\u0131. Bu, n\u00fckleer kullan\u0131labilirlik sorunlar\u0131<\/strong>, t\u00fckenen hidro seviyeleri<\/strong> ve azalan termal \u00fcretim<\/strong> (hem yak\u0131t eri\u015fim sorunlar\u0131 hem de tesis kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle) taraf\u0131ndan ilerletildi.<\/p>\n

2023 y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong> teslimat\u0131 i\u00e7in Hollanda (TTF) gaz\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 237 \u20ac\/MWh<\/strong> (70 $\/mmbtu) \u00fczerinde kapatt\u0131, Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %120 artt\u0131<\/strong>! Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde elektrik fiyatlar\u0131ndaki<\/strong> art\u0131\u015flar \u00e7ok daha agresifti.<\/strong> Bu fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 tarif edecek <\/strong>s\u0131fatlar\u0131m\u0131z t\u00fckendi<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Avrupa genelindeki ani elektrik piyasas\u0131<\/strong> s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, son 6 hafta<\/strong> boyunca gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> yukar\u0131 \u00e7eken \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r<\/strong> oldu. Avrupa’n\u0131n \u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutmak<\/strong> i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00fcretim<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 var ve geriye kalan tek se\u00e7enek <\/strong>ise gaz.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn, Avrupa gaz<\/strong> ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131’nda<\/strong> yukar\u0131 do\u011fru bir talep y\u0131\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/strong> yaratan birbirini etkileyen fiyatland\u0131rma dinamiklerine<\/strong> bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Vadeli Gaz E\u011frisi Ani Y\u00fckselmesi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Yaz boyunca gaz fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini vurgulamak i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik, Temmuz ay\u0131nda<\/strong> Timera<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 grafi\u011fin bir g\u00fcncellemesidir.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Grafik 1 Temmuzdan beri Vadeli TTF Fiyatlar\u0131nda olu\u015fan ani y\u00fckseli\u015f<\/p><\/div>\n

TTF e\u011frisine<\/strong> son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok fazla medya ilgisi<\/strong> var. Bu grafi\u011fi yay\u0131nlamaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri 22 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong> teslimat fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k % 35<\/strong> artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sonu\u00e7, 2023 Takvimi<\/strong> boyunca gaz da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m fiyat\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %120 <\/strong>artmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fidir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l teslimat\u0131 i\u00e7in zaten a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f olan gaz fiyat\u0131, son 6 haftada<\/strong> 2 kat\u0131ndan fazla artt\u0131. Ve 2024 Takvimi<\/strong> i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 (ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde iki kat\u0131ndan fazla).<\/p>\n

Bunlar, Avrupa ekonomisi<\/strong>nin enerji maliyeti<\/strong> taban\u0131ndaki temel de\u011fi\u015fimlerdir. Yakla\u015fan geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 end\u00fcstriyel talep y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131na<\/strong> ve uygulanan y\u00f6netimden<\/strong> gelen gaz tasarruf \u00f6nlemleri<\/strong> olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyorlar.<\/p>\n

Avrupa’n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcyen elektrik krizi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

2022’nin<\/strong> ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Avrupa’da elektrik fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden olan 1’incil fakt\u00f6r<\/strong>, gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oldu. CCGT*’ler<\/strong>, Avrupa elektrik piyasalar\u0131nda<\/strong> marjinal elektrik fiyat belirlemesine hakimdir. Sonu\u00e7 olarak;<\/span> gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar, do\u011frudan daha y\u00fcksek elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 olarak yans\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

*CCGT:<\/strong> Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (Kombine \u00c7evrim Gaz Santralleri)<\/p>\n

Avrupa’da ayr\u0131 bir elektrik krizi<\/strong> bu yaz giderek daha \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7 topluyor.<\/strong> Bu krizin arkas\u0131ndaki tetikleyiciler:<\/span><\/p>\n

– \u00c7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Frans\u0131z n\u00fckleer<\/strong> kullan\u0131labilirli\u011fi (EDF yak\u0131n zamanda 2023 i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 k\u0131lavuzunu 300-330TWh<\/strong>‘ye indirdi ve \u015fu anda zaten zay\u0131f olan 2022<\/strong> kullan\u0131labilirli\u011fini etkileyen so\u011futma sorunlar\u0131yla<\/strong> kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya)<\/p>\n

– \u0130skandinavya<\/strong>‘dan \u0130berya<\/strong>‘ya kadar tarihsel<\/strong> olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hidro depolama seviyeleri<\/strong> (yayg\u0131n kurakl\u0131k ko\u015fullar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda)<\/p>\n

– Bat\u0131 Avrupa genelinde termik santral<\/strong> kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (ya\u015flanan k\u00f6m\u00fcr, n\u00fckleer ve gaz santrali)<\/p>\n

– Yak\u0131t tedari\u011fi lojisti\u011fi<\/strong> \u00c7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Ren Nehri su seviyeleri<\/strong>nin (\u00f6rne\u011fin, Alman elektrik santrallerine mavna k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc teslimat\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen) lojistik sorunlar\u0131 ve Rus \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> neden oldu\u011fu lojistik sorunlar\u0131n<\/strong> bir kombinasyonu<\/p>\n

– Yukar\u0131daki fakt\u00f6rlerin tetikledi\u011fi<\/strong> yard\u0131mc\u0131 kaynak \u00fcretimdeki eksik r\u00fczgar<\/strong> ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi<\/strong> \u00fcretimi d\u00f6nemleri<\/p>\n

Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin birle\u015fimi, elektrik krizini<\/strong> sahnenin ortas\u0131na itiyor.<\/p>\n

Elektrik Krizi \u015eimdi Gaz Krizini Tetikliyor<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Avrupa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 y\u0131l<\/strong> boyunca gaz dar bo\u011faz\u0131<\/strong>ndad\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre boyunca herhangi \u00f6nemli materyal arz yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (bol miktarda olan Rus<\/strong> taraf\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn olmamas\u0131<\/strong> durumunda), piyasay\u0131 dengelemek<\/strong> i\u00e7in 3 talep<\/strong> taraf\u0131 azaltma se\u00e7ene\u011fi vard\u0131r:<\/span><\/p>\n

– End\u00fcstriyel talep<\/strong> (daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar nedeniyle 2022<\/strong>‘de \u015fimdiye kadar ~%15<\/strong>‘lik bir y\u0131k\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya)<\/p>\n

– Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc talebi<\/p>\n

– Konut ve ticari talep<\/p>\n

Normalde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek gaz fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>, elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden gelen talebin azalmas\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> te\u015fvik etmektedir. Ancak ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Avrupa gazda oldu\u011fu gibi elektrikte de bir darl\u0131ktad\u0131r. Ve artan elektrik fiyat\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131, yanan gazdan<\/strong> gelmektedir.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle;<\/span> Avrupa’n\u0131n \u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131k tutmak i\u00e7in, belki de gelecek olan elektrik talebini azaltmak<\/strong> i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha fazla gaz yakmaktan<\/strong> ba\u015fka se\u00e7ene\u011fi yok.<\/p>\n

Elektrik ve gaz krizinin etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Elektrik ve gaz krizi<\/strong>‘nin ciddiyetini en iyi yans\u0131tan piyasa fiyatland\u0131rma \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi<\/strong> Temiz K\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m Yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r (CSS)*. <\/em>Bu, elektrik fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> ile CCGT tesisleri<\/strong>nin de\u011fi\u015fken \u00fcretim maliyetleri (yani CCGT \u00fcretim marjlar\u0131) aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

*CSS (Clean Spark Spread):<\/strong> elektrik fiyat\u0131 eksi, do\u011fal gaz maliyeti ve elektri\u011fi \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in gereken emisyon izinleri<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"

Grafik 2 Frans\u0131z Vadeli Baz Y\u00fck De\u011fi\u015fimi<\/p><\/div>\n

CSS<\/strong> y\u00fckseliyorsa, bu, elektrik fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, artan gaz fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n, maliyet ge\u00e7i\u015fini<\/strong> a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu durum, yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde bu yaz kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Frans\u0131z piyasalar\u0131<\/strong> ise en keskin<\/strong> olan\u0131d\u0131r, ancak ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck CSS<\/strong> de \u00e7o\u011fu Avrupa piyasalar\u0131<\/strong>nda rekor seviyelere y\u00fckselmektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Grafik 3 Vadeli \u0130ngiltere ve Almanya CSS De\u011ferleri<\/p><\/div>\n

\u0130ngiltere<\/strong> ve Almanya<\/strong> vadeli CSS seviyeleri, Frans\u0131zlara<\/strong> g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Aldanmay\u0131n\u2026<\/strong> bunlar da rekor seviyelerdedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin;<\/span> Alman baz y\u00fck CSS<\/strong>‘i normal d\u00f6nemde negatif seviyelerden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tek haneli rakamlara<\/strong> kadar aral\u0131kta de\u011fi\u015fmektedir buna kar\u015f\u0131n 2023<\/strong> k\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda 80 \u20ac\/MWh<\/strong>‘den fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

CSS iletimi ve likidite zorlu\u011fu<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Vadeli CSS, y\u00fckselen elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n TTF gaz e\u011frisini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131d\u0131r. Vadeli CSS ani y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, gaz \u00fcreticilerinin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00fcretimi hedge etme iste\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu, elektri\u011fin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve gaz\u0131n (& karbonun) sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, tamamen \u00fcretim riskinden korunmak<\/strong> i\u00e7in, daha y\u00fcksek elektrik fiyatlar\u0131na<\/strong> yan\u0131t olarak vadeli gaz\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Gaz <\/strong>ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131ndaki<\/strong> hareketler \u015fu anda \u00e7ok zay\u0131f piyasa likiditesi<\/strong> nedeniyle \u015fiddetleniyor.<\/p>\n

Bu, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dakilerin bir fonksiyonudur:<\/span><\/p>\n

– Piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck i\u015flem yapma kabiliyetini k\u0131s\u0131tlayan marj<\/strong> ve teminat sorunlar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

– \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck riskleri<\/strong> s\u0131n\u0131rlayan risk kapasitesi (\u00f6rn. VaR \/ limit) sorunlar\u0131.<\/p>\n

Artan tekliflerin oldu\u011fu bir piyasada, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az teklif likiditesi<\/strong> vard\u0131r. Bu ko\u015fullar, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> desteklemeye devam edecek \u015fekilde ayarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Piyasa hareketleri<\/strong> tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fildir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Rusya arz\u0131ndaki herhangi bir art\u0131\u015f, muhtemelen vadeli piyasalardaki a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n azalmas\u0131na<\/strong> neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir bilgi de, politika m\u00fcdahalesinin<\/strong> yap\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin netlik, \u00f6r. end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcretimin ihale edilmesi veya oranlanmas\u0131 dair. Bu bilgi, piyasalar\u0131 temizlemek i\u00e7in gerekli talebin hacimlerini ve fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir girdidir.<\/p>\n

Mevcut ileri elektrik<\/strong> ve gaz fiyat<\/strong> seviyelerinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131, bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tan risk priminden<\/strong> kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Piyasalar, elektrik<\/strong> ve gaz\u0131<\/strong>, talep taraf\u0131 imha<\/strong> ve m\u00fcdahaleye<\/strong> de\u011fil, arz taraf\u0131 esnekli\u011fine dayal\u0131 olarak fiyatland\u0131rmaya al\u0131\u015fk\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlar<\/strong>, t\u00fcm enerji t\u00fcketicilerinin talebi kesmesi<\/strong> i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 te\u015fvikler<\/strong> yarat\u0131r. Enerji tasarrufu \u00f6nlemleri<\/strong> \u015fekli ne olursa olsun, umal\u0131m ki, market fiyat sinyalleri<\/strong>ni azaltmaya veya iptal etmeye<\/strong> \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak yerine sakinle\u015ftirsin.<\/p>\n

Yay\u0131na Haz\u0131rlayan:<\/strong> Kaan Murat \u00c7EL\u0130K\u00c7AN \u2013 Enerji Sistemleri M\u00fchendisi \u2013\u00a0kmcelikcan@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Avrupa \u015fu anda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 bir gaz ve elektrik kriziyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Artan gaz maliyetlerinin elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin etkisiyle bu daha […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":161035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,51,53],"tags":[105542,105538,105540,23219,343,8375,26353,105541,3160,12235,104791,105537,4704,105533,105539,105532,78220,105543,105536,105534,105535],"views":432,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161028"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}