{"id":16048,"date":"2013-10-02T09:34:21","date_gmt":"2013-10-02T06:34:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=16048"},"modified":"2013-10-02T09:34:21","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T06:34:21","slug":"makale-kuresel-isinmanin-siyaset-bilimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/makale-kuresel-isinmanin-siyaset-bilimi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Makale: K\u00fcresel Is\u0131nman\u0131n Siyaset Bilimi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u201cGe\u00e7en y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n temel nedeninin insan etkisi olmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemel,\u201d H\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli\u2019nin (IPCC) be\u015finci de\u011ferlendirme raporunun Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan ilk k\u0131sm\u0131ndaki ba\u015fl\u0131k buydu. Y\u00fczde 95 ile y\u00fczde 100 aras\u0131nda bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa denk gelen \u201ckuvvetle muhtemel\u201d ifadesi, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc de\u011ferlendirme raporunda kullan\u0131lan \u201c\u00e7ok muhtemel\u201d ifadesinin bir kademe g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f hali. Ancak IPCC, iklim sisteminin karbon dioksite cevap verebilme yetene\u011finin 2007 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki raporda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenden daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa karar verdi ve buna g\u00f6re alt band\u0131 2 dereceden, 1.5 dereceye indirdi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu a\u015fikar bir \u00e7eli\u015fki. IPCC nas\u0131l oluyor da karbon dioksitin iklim \u00fczerindeki etkisinden emin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan bu yana meydana gelen s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliyor? A\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u015fu ki IPCC raporlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de politikac\u0131lar i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan \u00f6zetler asl\u0131nda siyasi t\u00fcketim i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 David Cameron da sanki planlanm\u0131\u015f gibi IPCC raporunun ard\u0131ndan, \u201cE\u011fer biri evinizin y\u00fczde 95 olas\u0131l\u0131kla yanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerse bunun y\u00fczde 5 olas\u0131l\u0131kla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyecek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen sigorta yapt\u0131r\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

IPCC\u2019nin son raporunun alt\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. IPCC\u2019nin 1951 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n sera gazlar\u0131, so\u011futmada kullan\u0131lan aerosoller gibi farkl\u0131 bile\u015fenleri \u00fczerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler yaln\u0131zca \u201cmuhtemel sonucunu verdi, bu da y\u00fczde 66 ile y\u00fczde 100 aras\u0131nda olas\u0131l\u0131k demek. Sadece IPCC taraf\u0131ndan, par\u00e7alar\u0131n toplam\u0131na, birle\u015fenlerinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k verilebilirdi. Belki de, bu ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en ayd\u0131nlat\u0131c\u0131 sonucu, iklim bilim adamlar\u0131n\u0131n bu sa\u00e7mal\u0131klardan ya da politik \u00e7\u0131karlar i\u00e7in verilerin manip\u00fcle edilmesinden utan\u00e7 duymamalar\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Bu kez IPCC i\u00e7in en zor olan\u0131, atmosferdeki s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda 15 y\u0131lan bu yana s\u00fcregelen duraksamay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak oldu. IPCC 2011 ve 2005 aras\u0131nda insan kaynakl\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131m zorlamas\u0131, yani atmosfere giren g\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 ile atmosferi terk eden k\u0131z\u0131l\u00f6tesi \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n y\u00fczde 43 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Atmosfere giren \u0131\u015f\u0131ma ile atmosferden \u00e7\u0131kan \u0131\u015f\u0131man\u0131n dengesinin ise \u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hapsolmas\u0131na neden olan gazlar\u0131n insan kaynakl\u0131 olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131yla bozuldu\u011funa inan\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak son 15 y\u0131ldan bu yana \u00e7ok az \u0131s\u0131nma meydana geldi.<\/p>\n

IPCC k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemlerin uzun vadeli e\u011filimleri do\u011fru yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yerine, kendi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikilemden ka\u00e7may\u0131 se\u00e7ti. Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ba\u015fyazarlar\u0131ndan Jochem Marotzke muhabirlere konunun s\u00fcrece biraz ge\u00e7 dahil oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. 14 ekipten her biri bu konuyu ba\u015fka birinin \"\"<\/a>\u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma grubunun e\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131 Thomas Stocker IPCC\u2019nin meslekta\u015f incelemesinden ge\u00e7mi\u015f dergi makaleleri \u00fczerinden gitti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Uluslararas\u0131 haber kurulu\u015fu Christian Science Monitor\u2019\u00fcn yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re Stocker konu hakk\u0131nda, \u201cKorkar\u0131m bu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bilimsel soruyu gereken derinlikte inceleyebilmemizi sa\u011flayacak \u00e7ok say\u0131da akademik kaynak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek zorunday\u0131m,\u201d dedi. Akla s\u0131cakl\u0131klar beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor olsayd\u0131 IPCC ve iklim dergileri sessiz kal\u0131r m\u0131yd\u0131 sorusu geliyor. A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortada ki do\u011fa iklim biliminin fikir birli\u011fini mahcup etmi\u015f.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim bilimciler IPCC\u2019nin y\u00fczde 95\u2032lik g\u00fcven rakam\u0131n\u0131n ifade etti\u011fi \u015fey kadar, ger\u00e7ekten iklimden anlad\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00fcveniyorlarsa 15 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren bu duraksaman\u0131n ne zaman sona erece\u011fi ve s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n IPCC\u2019nin uzun vadeli e\u011filim oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi gibi ne zaman y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kesin tarih vererek s\u00f6yleyebilir. Tahmin edilebilece\u011fi gibi IPCC b\u00f6yle tutarl\u0131 bir s\u0131namadan ka\u00e7\u0131nacakt\u0131r. IPCC yaln\u0131zca 1986-2005 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2012-2035 i\u00e7in 0.3\u00b0ile 0.7\u00b0C aras\u0131nda, muhtemel bir s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor ve bu \u201corta g\u00fcvenli\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim bilimcilerin ger\u00e7ekte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerinin nas\u0131l evrimle\u015fti\u011finin daha iyi bir g\u00f6stergesi ba\u015fka bir yerde bulunabilir. IPCC\u2019nin 1990 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk de\u011ferlendirme raporunda, o zamanlar k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n tahmin edilen i\u015faretlerini g\u00fcvenilir bir \u015fekilde alg\u0131lama g\u00fcc\u00fc olmayan bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yer al\u0131yordu. 1995\u2032teki ikinci raporda \u201ci\u015faretin\u201d halen arka plan de\u011fi\u015fkenli\u011finden kaynaklanan kirlilikten do\u011fdu\u011fu belirtildi. Bilim insanlar\u0131 en az\u0131ndan belirsiz olmayacak bir \u015fekilde sera gaz\u0131 i\u015fareti alg\u0131lad\u0131lar m\u0131? 2013 raporunun \u00f6zetinde bu kelimeden bir kez bile bahsedilmedi.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci de\u011ferlendirmeden bu yana bu raporlar\u0131 \u00e7evreleyen bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k s\u00f6z konusu. \u0130lk olarak Frederick Seitz 1996\u2032da, \u201cmeslekta\u015f \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme s\u00fcrecinin b\u00f6ylesine rahats\u0131z edici bir \u015fekilde yozla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda patlak verdi. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan bir yetkili metnin \u201cuygun bir \u015fekilde\u201d d\u00fczeltilmesi emrini verdi. IPCC\u2019de \u00f6nde gelen iklim bilimcilerden Stephen Schneider m\u00fcdahaleyi onaylar bir \u015fekilde \u0130kinci De\u011ferlendirme Raporu\u2019nun \u201cpolitik anlamlarla dolu\u201d oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bu s\u0131rada Clinton y\u00f6netimi ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 karbon sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 kesintilerinin kabul edildi\u011fini duyurmak \u00fczereydi.<\/p>\n

Nitekim politikle\u015fme IPCC raporlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6kle\u015fmi\u015f bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi. 2007 de\u011ferlendirmesindeki fiyaskonun ard\u0131ndan BM Genel Sekreteri AkademilerAras\u0131 Konsey\u2019den (InterAcademy Council) IPCC\u2019nin s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini istedi. Princeton \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden ekonomist Harold Shapiro ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki komite, h\u00fck\u00fcmet temsilcileri ve bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cmesaj\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a verilebilmesi\u201d ve politikac\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cs\u00fcrece dahil olmas\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in politikac\u0131lar i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan \u00f6zetin son s\u00f6zleri \u00fczerinde kelime kelime anla\u015fmak \u00fczere bir araya geldiklerini g\u00f6zlemledi. Belki bu nezaket i\u00e7indir. Esas soru ise kimin kimi sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n

Komite ise IPCC\u2019nin y\u00f6netiminde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye etti ki bu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden gelindi. Komite \u00f6zellikle de IPCC\u2019nin say\u0131sal olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc kullanmay\u0131 b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi ki bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct, y\u00fczde 95 olas\u0131l\u0131k ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi gibi ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan raporda bir kez daha kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Kurumun AkademilerAras\u0131 Konsey\u2019in bulgular\u0131na alenen ald\u0131rmamas\u0131 ve s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki 15 y\u0131ll\u0131k duraksamay\u0131 ele almakta g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6n\u00fcls\u00fczl\u00fck liderli\u011fin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesidir. Sonu\u00e7 ise ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz: IPCC \u0131slah edilebilir de\u011fildir ve Be\u015finci De\u011ferlendirme Raporu IPCC\u2019nin son raporu olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Darwall \u201cThe Age of Global Warming: A History,\u201d (Quartet Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2013) isimli kitab\u0131n yazar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yazan: Rupert Darwall<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u201cGe\u00e7en y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n temel nedeninin insan etkisi olmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemel,\u201d H\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli\u2019nin (IPCC) be\u015finci de\u011ferlendirme […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[63,67,1009,165,4520,1999,9199,4522,9200,1471],"views":2118,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16048"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16048"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16048\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16050,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16048\/revisions\/16050"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}