{"id":143779,"date":"2021-10-12T11:43:14","date_gmt":"2021-10-12T08:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=143779"},"modified":"2021-10-12T12:32:35","modified_gmt":"2021-10-12T09:32:35","slug":"covid-19-sonrasi-enerji-talebi-iklim-hedeflerini-etkiliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/covid-19-sonrasi-enerji-talebi-iklim-hedeflerini-etkiliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Covid-19 Sonras\u0131 Enerji Talebi \u0130klim Hedeflerini Etkiliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

2020’de sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel salg\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f muhtemelen tek bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ancak salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 toparlanmayla birlikte gelecekteki emisyonlar\u0131n nas\u0131l etkilenece\u011fi o kadar net bilinmiyor. Yeni modelleme, alternatif senaryolar\u0131 ve bu senaryolar\u0131n azaltma hedeflerini nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini inceliyor.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Uygulamal\u0131 Sistem Analizi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (IIASA)<\/strong> Enerji, \u0130klim ve \u00c7evre Program\u0131<\/em> kapsam\u0131nda bir grup ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131, enerji talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle<\/strong> ilgili kapsaml\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirme \"\"yapt\u0131 ve seyahat, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, t\u00fcketim<\/strong> ve \u00fcretim<\/strong> alanlar\u0131ndaki yeni d\u00fczenin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin<\/strong> etkilerini azaltma yolunda<\/strong> zorluklar\u0131 nas\u0131l azaltabilece\u011fine veya art\u0131rabilece\u011fine dair tahminlerde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015fyazar\u0131 Jarmo Kikstra,<\/strong> “Bir\u00e7ok insan COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ve kapanmalarla birlikte toplumsal ya\u015famda g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi i\u00e7in ne anlama geldi\u011fini merak ediyor. Toplumlar eski uygulamalara geri d\u00f6nerse, ya\u015fanan bu de\u011fi\u015fimin neredeyse hi\u00e7bir etkisi olmayacakt\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, enerji kullan\u0131m bi\u00e7imlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler devam ederse, iklim etkilerini azaltma<\/strong> s\u00fcrecinde ya\u015fanacak zorluklar farkl\u0131la\u015fabilir”<\/em> diyor.<\/p>\n

Nature Energy dergisinde<\/strong> yay\u0131nlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rma, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong>‘n\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 1,5\u00b0C<\/strong> ile s\u0131n\u0131rlama hedefine ula\u015fma yolunda olan bir senaryo i\u00e7in, enerji talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin t\u00fcm karbon emisyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki varsay\u0131msal vergi y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc %19 azaltabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor<\/strong>. Bu senaryo ayn\u0131 zamanda 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar enerji arz\u0131na 1,8 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131 daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/strong> yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak ve yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerini<\/strong> h\u0131zla uygulama bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n yazarlar\u0131ndan Adriano Vinca,<\/strong> “Ara\u015ft\u0131rma kapsam\u0131nda edindi\u011fimiz temel bulgu, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam\u0131m\u0131zda ve i\u015f<\/strong> d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerjili uygulamalar\u0131<\/strong> s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmam\u0131z halinde, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Ekonomik toparlanma s\u00fcrecine ve iklim etkilerini azaltma<\/strong> politikalar\u0131m\u0131za, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu \u015fehir i\u00e7i ula\u015f\u0131m ve telekonferans gibi salg\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen enerji talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck uygulamalar\u0131 devam ettirmek <\/strong>i\u00e7in stratejiler yerle\u015ftirmelidir”<\/em> diyor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar bunun \u00f6zellikle ula\u015f\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. Ula\u015f\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji talebine ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 toparlanma senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tahminler, CO2 emisyon e\u011filimleri<\/strong>nin ne denli etkilenebilece\u011fini g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> takip eden toparlanma s\u00fcrecinde, binalar<\/strong> ile ula\u015f\u0131m<\/strong> ve sanayi<\/strong> sekt\u00f6rlerinin enerji talebindeki<\/strong> de\u011fi\u015fime ili\u015fkin tutarl\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar i\u00e7eren 4 farkl\u0131 senaryo<\/strong> \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cEskiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d senaryosunda,<\/strong> \u00f6zel ara\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131yla hava ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki yo\u011funluk seviyesi salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi duruma getirildi. Ayn\u0131 \u015fey end\u00fcstriyel faaliyetler, tedarik zincirleri, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam\u0131m\u0131zdaki al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in de yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cBireysel kaynaklara dayanma\u201d senaryosunda<\/strong>, sa\u011fl\u0131k riskleriyle ilgili kayg\u0131lar uzun s\u00fcre devam ederken, bireyler kalabal\u0131k toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma se\u00e7eneklerini b\u0131rak\u0131p kendi ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u0130\u015f yerleri ve ya\u015fam alanlar\u0131 devam eden sosyal mesafe uygulamalar\u0131 nedeniyle daha da geni\u015fliyor. Buna ek olarak, \u00f6zellikle yeniden canlanan otomobil \u00fcretimi ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nedeniyle \u00e7elik talebi giderek art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u201cAk\u0131ll\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u201d senaryosunda<\/strong>, insanlar evden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullara daha iyi ayak uyduruyor ve uzaktan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011fru orta seviyede bir ge\u00e7i\u015f var. Bunun sonucunda ev ortam\u0131 daha \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan bir alan haline geliyor ve motorlu ta\u015f\u0131tlara dayanan ula\u015f\u0131mdaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme, salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla azal\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte internetten al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fte g\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f, karayolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da genel olarak artmas\u0131na sebep oluyor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n “ye\u015fil y\u00fckseli\u015f”<\/strong> olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 son senaryoda, mekanlar\u0131n farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131mlar i\u00e7in yeniden tahsis edilmesi ve \u00f6zel ara\u00e7larla ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla birlikte enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131ndaki en fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f elde ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, daha \u00f6nce araba ile yap\u0131lan baz\u0131 gezilerin yerini y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f veya bisiklete binmek al\u0131yor ve bo\u015f ofisler yeni ama\u00e7larla kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, \u201cye\u015fil y\u00fckseli\u015f\u201d senaryosuna k\u0131yasla \u201ceskiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d senaryosunun, 1,5 derece hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 %9 veya bir di\u011fer ifadeyle 1,8 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 sonucuna vard\u0131<\/strong>. Aradaki fark, bir nebze de olsa, \u201ceskiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d senaryosunda elektrikli ula\u015f\u0131ma ge\u00e7i\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli r\u00fczgar ve g\u00fcne\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na duyulan ihtiya\u00e7tan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

IIASA Enerji, \u0130klim ve \u00c7evre Program\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc ve ara\u015ft\u0131rma yazarlar\u0131ndan Keywan Riahi,<\/strong> “Sonu\u00e7 olarak, i\u015f sebebiyle u\u00e7a\u011fa binmeyi ve i\u015fe gidip gelmeyi azaltmak amac\u0131yla evden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ve telekonferans y\u00f6ntemini destekleyen “ye\u015fil y\u00fckseli\u015f” senaryosu, iklim etkilerini azaltma yolundaki zorluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmede yararl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilecektir” diyor.<\/p>\n

Yazarlar ayr\u0131ca, “ofis alanlar\u0131n\u0131n yeni ama\u00e7larla kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u015fehirlerde y\u00fcr\u00fcme veya bisiklete binme imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n ve i\u015fe gidip gelirken toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131<\/strong>” da dahil olmak \u00fczere b\u00fct\u00fcnsel politikalar tasarlaman\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu da ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma yazarlar\u0131ndan Charlie Wilson<\/strong>‘\u0131n da belirtti\u011fi gibi, “k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 1,5\u00b0C<\/strong> ile s\u0131n\u0131rlamak son derece zor olacakt\u0131r. COVID-19 felaketinin tek olumlu taraf\u0131, kapanmalar sebebiyle mecbur kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbon uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmemiz halinde, 1,5 \u00b0C<\/strong> hedefinin biraz daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir hale gelmesidir.”<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. 2020’de sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel salg\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f muhtemelen tek bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ancak salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 toparlanmayla […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":143781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,52],"tags":[1471,93454,27427,2533,97461],"views":151,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143779"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}