{"id":141687,"date":"2021-09-07T15:24:38","date_gmt":"2021-09-07T12:24:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=141687"},"modified":"2021-09-07T15:34:37","modified_gmt":"2021-09-07T12:34:37","slug":"iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"The Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide Under Climate-Economy Feedbacks&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<h2>One crucial indicator of the level of urgency for taking climate action is the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>), which represents the total welfare lost across the globe due to an extra emitted tonne of CO<sub>2<\/sub>, usually expressed in US dollars per tonne of CO<sub>2<\/sub>.<\/h2>\n<p>The SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0has been calculated under a range of climatic and socioeconomic assumptions (Havranek\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib26\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib26\">2015<\/a>, Howard and Sterner\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib29\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib29\">2017<\/a>, Tol\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib67\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib67\">2018<\/a>), giving a wide range of best estimates. These contemporary estimates are often higher than values that have been used in policies or the economy-wide average price on CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions (Dolphin\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib19\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib19\">2020<\/a>), in part due to underestimates of impacts and strong discounting <img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-141693\" src=\"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak-500x334.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak-75x50.jpg 75w, https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iklim-degisikligi-nin-ekonomik-maliyet-tahminlerden-6-kat-yuksek-olacak-450x300.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 320px) 100vw, 320px\" \/>assumptions of future damages in policy-making (Carleton and Greenstone\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib14\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib14\">2021<\/a>, Wagner\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib71\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib71\">2021<\/a>). Current policy recommendations range from US$51 (Interagency Working Group\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib33\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib33\">2013<\/a>) to US$202 (Umwelt Bundesamt\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib69\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib69\">2019<\/a>), while a recent expert elicitation among economists and climate scientists yielded mean values of US$171 and US$310, respectively (Pindyck\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib52\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib52\">2019<\/a>). Other central estimates are even higher (Moore and Diaz\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib42\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib42\">2015<\/a>, Ricke\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib55\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib55\">2018<\/a>). Many challenges remain to improve estimates of the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0estimates as well as the related uncertainty range (National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib46\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib46\">2017<\/a>, Stern and Stiglitz\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib64\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib64\">2021<\/a>, Wagner\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib71\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib71\">2021<\/a>), which is of critical value for designing comprehensive climate mitigation and adaptation policies (Smith and Stern\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib62\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib62\">2011<\/a>, Hope\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib28\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib28\">2015<\/a>, Metcalf and Stock\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib41\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib41\">2017<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Cost-benefit integrated <strong>assessment models (CB-IAMs)<\/strong> representing climate-economy interactions in a highly aggregated manner and have been key tools to estimating the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>. Unfortunately, these models lag behind both natural and social science understanding, often undervaluing the impacts of climate change (Diaz and Moore\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib16\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib16\">2017<\/a>, Howard and Sterner\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib29\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib29\">2017<\/a>, Rose\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib58\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib58\">2017<\/a>, Carleton and Greenstone\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib14\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib14\">2021<\/a>). In particular, CB-IAMs have only simple representations of climate and economy feedbacks, which are key determinants of climate change risks (Otto\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib49\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib49\">2013<\/a>, Calvin\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib12\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib12\">2019<\/a>). Many authors thus argue that rigorous inclusion of the feedbacks is crucial in calculating the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0(Burke\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib7\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib7\">2016<\/a>, Cai\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib11\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib11\">2016<\/a>, National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib46\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib46\">2017<\/a>, Stiglitz\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib65\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib65\">2017<\/a>, Piontek\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib53\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib53\">2021<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>As for <strong>climate feedbacks<\/strong>, previous research has calculated the mean discounted economic effect of climate change with selected state-dependent climate feedbacks, but provided no breakdown of regional or distributional implications of marginal damages of CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions (Cai\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib11\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib11\">2016<\/a>, Yumashev\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib73\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib73\">2019<\/a>). Here, we compare the PAGE-ICE CB-IAM which also introduced permafrost thawing and surface albedo climate feedbacks (Yumashev\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib73\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib73\">2019<\/a>) with PAGE09 (Hope\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib27\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib27\">2013<\/a>) and attribute the changes in the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0to the specific model changes.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, we extend the <strong>PAGE-ICE CB-IAM<\/strong> (Yumashev\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>\u00a0<a id=\"fnref-erlac1d0bbib73\" class=\"cite\" href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b#erlac1d0bbib73\">2019<\/a>) to quantify the effect on the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0of including possible <strong>long-term temperature growth<\/strong> feedback on economic trajectories, mean annual temperature anomalies, and the already modeled permafrost carbon and surface albedo feedbacks. Together, these provide an indication of the magnitude and uncertainties of the contribution of climate and economy feedbacks and interannual variability to the SCCO<sub>2<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p>More Details&#8211;&gt;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1d0b<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One crucial indicator of the level of urgency for taking climate action is the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2), which represents the total welfare lost across the globe due to an extra emitted tonne of CO2, usually expressed in US dollars per tonne of CO2. The SCCO2\u00a0has been calculated under a range of climatic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":141693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,52],"tags":[96150,42575,96158,96156,96152,96157,96154,96155,46693,41159,96153,2533,96159,96151],"views":277,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141687"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=141687"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141687\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":141697,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141687\/revisions\/141697"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/141693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=141687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=141687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=141687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}