{"id":133859,"date":"2021-04-26T11:50:52","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T08:50:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=133859"},"modified":"2021-04-26T11:53:27","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T08:53:27","slug":"onlem-alinmadigi-takdirde-dunya-ekonomisi-yuzde-18-oraninda-kuculebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/onlem-alinmadigi-takdirde-dunya-ekonomisi-yuzde-18-oraninda-kuculebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) \u00d6nlem Al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Takdirde D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi % 18 Oran\u0131nda K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclebilir!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel ekonominin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli tehditlerin en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olu\u015fturuyor. Herhangi bir hafifletici \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda, k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n 3\u00b0C’nin \u00fczerinde artmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde %18 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi<\/strong> anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/h1>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan olu\u015fturulan \u0130klim Ekonomisi Endeksi<\/strong>, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong>\u2019nda belirlenen hedeflere ula\u015fmak amac\u0131yla kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu senaryo, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde sunulan taahh\u00fctlerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi<\/strong>ni gerektiriyor. Net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyonlu ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015fin<\/strong> h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda kamu \"\"kurumlar\u0131 ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6nemli rol oynamas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, 4 farkl\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> senaryosu uyar\u0131nca, 48 \u00fclkenin<\/strong> ekonomisinin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin s\u00fcregelen etkilerinden<\/strong> ne \u015fekilde etkilenece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek \u00fczere stres testi<\/strong> y\u00f6ntemini uyguluyor. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 do\u011fal afetlerin etkisini \u015fiddetlendirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, ciddi gelir ve verimlilik kay\u0131plar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor<\/strong>. \u00a0\u00d6rne\u011fin, deniz seviyesinin y\u00fckselmesi, verimli \u015fekilde kullan\u0131labilecek arazilerin kayb\u0131<\/strong>na neden oluyor ya da \u0131s\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn kayb\u0131na sebep olabiliyor. artan s\u0131cakl\u0131klardan en fazla Ekvatoral b\u00f6lgelerdeki<\/strong> geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin etkilenece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerinin GSY\u0130H’si 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde %10\u2019luk kay\u0131p ya\u015fayabilir <\/strong><\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n 3,2\u00b0C art\u0131\u015f<\/strong> g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi olumsuz senaryoda \u00c7in\u2019in, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar GSY\u0130H’sinin<\/strong> yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birini (%24) kaybetmesi<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD, Kanada<\/strong> ve \u0130ngiltere<\/strong> ekonomilerinin hepsinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10’luk<\/strong> kay\u0131p ya\u015famas\u0131 bekleniyor. Is\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan Avrupa biraz daha fazla etkileniyor (%11). Finlandiya veya \u0130svi\u00e7re gibi \u00fclkelerin ekonomileri daha az etkilenirken (%6), Fransa<\/strong> veya Yunanistan<\/strong> gibi \u00fclkelerin ekonomilerinde ise daha fazla (%13) etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fc\u2019s\u00fcn\u00fcn Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Thierry L\u00e9ger<\/strong>, \u201c\u0130klim riskleri; toplumlar\u0131n, \u015firketlerin ve bireylerin tamam\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun, \u00f6zellikle iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden<\/strong> en \u00e7ok etkilenen b\u00f6lgelerde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek, yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyara ula\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong> bekleniyor. Bu durum, risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong> ve net s\u0131f\u0131r hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong> amac\u0131yla hemen harekete ge\u00e7memizi gerektiriyor. K\u0131sa zaman \u00f6nce yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlilik<\/strong> endeksimizde, do\u011fa ve ekosistem hizmetlerinin ekonomiye \u00f6nemli fayda sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyoruz. Ancak bu kaynaklar ayn\u0131 zamanda yo\u011fun tehdit alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Bu nedenle iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlilik kayb\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir gelece\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir arada ele almam\u0131z gereken zorluklar<\/strong>” diyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim Ekonomisi Endeksi, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7lilik bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00fclkeleri s\u0131ral\u0131yor<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong>, her bir \u00fclkenin iklim risklerinden kaynaklanan ekonomik etkisini de\u011ferlendirmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, bu \u00fclkeleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kuru<\/strong> ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na<\/strong> kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131raland\u0131r\u0131yor. Enstit\u00fc ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkelerin, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkileriyle<\/strong> m\u00fccadele etme kapasitesini de de\u011ferlendiriyor. Bu bulgular bir araya getirilerek, \u00fclkelerin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin<\/strong> etkilerine kar\u015f\u0131 direncinin s\u0131ralamas\u0131<\/strong> olu\u015fturuluyor.<\/p>\n

S\u0131ralama, GSY\u0130H etki analiziyle benzer bulgular sunuyor. Analiz, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkilerinden en fazla etkilenen \u00fclkelerin, genellikle, artan k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n etkilerine uyum sa\u011flamak ya da etkilerini azaltmak \u00fczere en az finansal kayna\u011fa sahip \u00fclkelerle ayn\u0131<\/strong> oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bu ba\u011flamda en k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda Malezya, Tayland, Hindistan, Filipinler ve Endonezya yer al\u0131yor. ABD, Kanada, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n da<\/em> aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu kuzey yar\u0131mk\u00fcrede yer alan geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler, en az k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k g\u00f6steren ekonomiler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadelenin h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli rol oynuyor<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen analizinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bulgular\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadelenin gereklili\u011fi<\/strong> tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaz. Atmosfere en fazla karbon salan \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar, iklim hedeflerine ula\u015fma yolunda \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Kamu<\/strong> ve \u00f6zel<\/strong> sekt\u00f6r, \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 2\u00b0C ile s\u0131n\u0131rlamak<\/strong> i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 rol oynayarak bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Uzun vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler ve taahh\u00fct edilen uzun vadeli sermayeler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, emeklilik fonlar\u0131<\/strong> ve sigorta \u015firketleri gibi kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oynayaca\u011f\u0131 rol<\/strong> \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Swiss Re Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Ba\u015f Ekonomisti J\u00e9r\u00f4me Haegeli<\/strong>, \u201c\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sistemik bir risk<\/strong> ve yaln\u0131zca k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte<\/strong> ele al\u0131nabilir. \u015eimdiye kadar \u00e7ok az ilerleme kaydedildi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon hedefleri<\/strong> kapsam\u0131nda \u015feffafl\u0131k<\/strong> ve saydaml\u0131k<\/strong> konular\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu bir ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015f, ancak kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir arada hareket etmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir<\/strong>. K\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomilere finansal ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirilmesinde kolayl\u0131k sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla k\u00fcresel i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn rotam\u0131z\u0131 do\u011fru tarafa \u00e7evirerek; daha ye\u015fil, daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir<\/strong> ve daha diren\u00e7li bir d\u00fcnya in\u015fa etme f\u0131rsat\u0131m\u0131z<\/strong> bulunuyor,”<\/em> diyor.<\/p>\n

Haegeli, \u201cGer\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz analiz, net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyonlu ekonomilere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapman\u0131n faydalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, y\u0131ll\u0131k 6,3 trilyon dolar<\/strong> de\u011ferindeki k\u00fcresel altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %10 art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda, ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2\u00b0C ile s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn<\/strong>. Bu miktar, gerekli \u00f6nlemin al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z k\u00fcresel GSY\u0130H kayb\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor<\/strong>“<\/em> diyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini hafifletmek<\/strong>, bir dizi \u00f6nlemin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini gerektiriyor. Do\u011fa temelli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin ve karbon dengeleme \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleri<\/strong>nin, te\u015fviklerle ve karbon fiyatland\u0131rma politikalar\u0131yla desteklenmeleri gerekiyor. Bu \u00f6nlemlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ye\u015fil ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n taksonomisi i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 bir dil birli\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor<\/strong>. Finansal raporlama kapsam\u0131nda kurumlar\u0131n, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong> ve net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon hedeflerine<\/strong> ne \u015fekilde ula\u015fmay\u0131 planlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak kamuoyuyla payla\u015fmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Sigorta kurumlar\u0131; hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n, \u015firketlerin ve toplumlar\u0131n iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadele<\/strong> ve uyum s\u00fcre\u00e7lerindeki birikimleri sayesinde, risk transfer kapasitesi, risk bilgisi<\/strong> ve uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda<\/strong> \u00f6nemli rol oynuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim Ekonomisi Endeksi<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u0130klim Ekonomisi Endeksi,<\/strong> hangi \u00fclkelerin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden en fazla etkilenece\u011fine, en fazla maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131na ve iklim risklerine uyum sa\u011flamak<\/strong> \u00fczere en iyi konumda yer alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Endekste \u00fclkeler; kademeli s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 “kronik” iklim risklerinden<\/strong> kaynaklanan ekonomik etkilere; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131<\/strong>na, \u015fiddetli s\u0131cakl\u0131k\/ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131<\/strong> k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k derecesine ve \u00fclkelerdeki mevcut uyum kapasitesine<\/strong> g\u00f6re s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. K\u00fcresel ekonominin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli tehditlerin en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olu\u015fturuyor. Herhangi bir hafifletici \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda, k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n 3\u00b0C’nin \u00fczerinde artmas\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":133861,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,52],"tags":[63058,41159,4531,89657,89662,89661,11933,11614,89659,53334,57125,89658,89660],"views":177,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133859"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/133861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}