{"id":133506,"date":"2021-04-20T12:01:43","date_gmt":"2021-04-20T09:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=133506"},"modified":"2021-04-20T12:04:08","modified_gmt":"2021-04-20T09:04:08","slug":"egiad-dunya-da-ve-turkiye-de-pandemi-ekonomisini-degerlendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/egiad-dunya-da-ve-turkiye-de-pandemi-ekonomisini-degerlendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) EG\u0130AD D\u00fcnya\u2019da ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Pandemi Ekonomisini De\u011ferlendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

EG\u0130AD Ege Gen\u00e7 \u0130\u015f \u0130nsanlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m hizmetleri ve varl\u0131k y\u00f6netimi grubu \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co i\u015fbirli\u011fi ile d\u00fczenledi\u011fi \u201c2021 Y\u0131l\u0131 Global Makro Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi ve Piyasalar\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 webinar ile ekonomik g\u00fcndemi masaya yat\u0131rd\u0131. \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc K\u0131demli M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc G\u00f6khan Uskuay\u2019\u0131n konuk konu\u015fmac\u0131 oldu\u011fu webinarda pandeminin global ekonomiye etkileri, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fimler ve piyasalara etkileri ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/h1>\n

Zoom \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131ya, EG\u0130AD \u00fcyesi<\/strong> i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 yo\u011fun ilgi g\u00f6sterdi. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapan EG\u0130AD Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alp Avni Yelkenbi\u00e7er<\/strong>, \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co i\u015f birli\u011fi ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ekonomi sohbetlerinin EG\u0130AD ev sahipli\u011finde<\/strong> d\u00fczenli olarak her \u00e7eyrek organize edilece\u011fini<\/strong> aktararak, \u00fcye i\u015f insanlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi g\u00fcndemi olarak \u00f6nlerini g\u00f6rebilmeleri i\u00e7in bu toplant\u0131lar\u0131n rota niteli\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini ifade etti. \u00dcnl\u00fc & Co<\/strong>\u2019nun 1’inci Giri\u015fim Sermayesi Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu<\/strong>\u2019na EG\u0130AD Meleklerinden<\/strong> birka\u00e7 \u00fcye ile beraber yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bilgisini de \"\"payla\u015fan Yelkenbi\u00e7er, \u201c\u00dcNL\u00dc&Co, \u00fclke ekonomisine kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, 500\u2019e yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131<\/strong> ile t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fer yaratan \u015ferefiyesi y\u00fcksek bir firmad\u0131r. Bunun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak da %25<\/strong>\u2019lik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn halka arz\u0131<\/strong> i\u00e7in Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019na ba\u015fvurmu\u015f durumda. Kurumsal sosyal sorumluluk anlam\u0131nda da \u00f6nde gelen faaliyetleri olan \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co<\/strong> \u00f6zellikle kurdu\u011fu Kad\u0131n Giri\u015fimciler Akademisi<\/strong> vas\u0131tas\u0131yla kad\u0131nlara gereksinim duyduklar\u0131 her konuda tam donan\u0131ml\u0131 bir rehberlik yaparak giri\u015fimcilik yolculuklar\u0131nda<\/strong> onlar\u0131 cesaretlendiriyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin pandeminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r etkilere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli ekonomik ad\u0131mlar atmak zorunda kald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Yelkenbi\u00e7er, \u201cMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fleme i\u00e7in para basmas\u0131 ve pandemi nedeniyle duran i\u015flere ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara y\u00fckl\u00fc mali politika deste\u011fi izlenen y\u00f6ntemler olarak ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ise bu s\u00fcrece hem dolarizasyon seviyesi %25\u2019lerdeyken hem de y\u00fcksek enflasyonu 2018\u2019den bu yana<\/strong> \u00e7ift hanelerde seyir etti\u011finden dolay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir yap\u0131da girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in atabilece\u011fi ad\u0131mlar olduk\u00e7a k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yd\u0131. Gelinen bu noktada 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131ca yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, ekonomik aktivitelerin k\u00fcresel olarak desteklenece\u011fi, yard\u0131mlar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle t\u00fcketimin artmaya devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleriyle global olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendine girilebilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olarak bekleniyordu. Hatta y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle T\u00dcS\u0130AD ekonomistlerinin<\/strong> yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminler global olarak ekonominin %5,5<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin de %4.5<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u015feklindeydi. \u00dclkemizin ancak do\u011fru iktisadi politikalar in\u015fa ederek sermayeye eri\u015fimi<\/strong> ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamas\u0131<\/strong> m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Her ne kadar ge\u00e7en hafta merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz artt\u0131rmama karar\u0131<\/strong> mevcut politikan\u0131n devam\u0131 gibi yorumlansa da para<\/strong> ve kredi politikalar\u0131nda<\/strong> erken gev\u015feme potansiyeli, mevcut olan enflasyon trendini daha da artt\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Global olarak art\u0131\u015f trendinde<\/strong> olan g\u0131da emtia fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> da enflasyonun seyri<\/strong> konusunda bir ba\u015fka risk unsurudur\u201d<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

\u00dcNL\u00dc & Co Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc<\/strong> K\u0131demli M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc G\u00f6khan Uskuay<\/strong>, D\u00fcnya ekonomisi genelinde Avrupa, Amerika ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ekonomik geli\u015fmeleri, f\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/strong> ve riskleri<\/strong> de\u011ferlendirdi. Mart 2020\u2019den itibaren hayat\u0131m\u0131za giren Covid salg\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> ve pandemi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemini zorlayarak geli\u015fimine sebep olurken ekonomilerin ise \u00fclkelerin zorlanmas\u0131na ve daralmas\u0131na sebep oldu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi K\u0131r\u0131lgan<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalmamas\u0131 sebebiyle D\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7eken Uskuay, ekonominin kapal\u0131 halinin 2022 senesine kadar<\/strong> sirayet edebilece\u011fini kaydetti. Pandemi sonras\u0131 ekonomilerin toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin de devam edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden Uskuay, \u201cABD\u2019de -6\u2019ya kadar finansal ko\u015fullarda bozulma ya\u015fand\u0131. AB Merkez Bankas\u0131 da ayn\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Pandemi \u00fclkelerdeki bir\u00e7ok sorunu b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. D\u00fcnya zaten son 10 y\u0131lda<\/strong> parlak bir senaryoya sahip de\u011fildi, pandemi s\u00fcreci ile tablo bu noktaya ula\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019de 20 milyon<\/strong> i\u015f kayb\u0131 olu\u015ftu sonras\u0131nda geri d\u00f6nenler olsa da 9 milyon i\u015fsiz<\/strong> hala mevcut durumda. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Merkez Bankalar\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te devreye girerek D\u00fcnya\u2019y\u0131 batmaktan kurtard\u0131lar. T\u00fcm D\u00fcnya\u2019da tedarik zincirlerinin yetersizli\u011fi, stoklar\u0131n t\u00fckenmesi, arz eksikli\u011fi fiyatlar \u00fczerinde etkili oldu. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na<\/strong> kadar pandemi \u00f6ncesindeki \u00fcretim noktas\u0131na gelinmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r. ABD\u2019de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te evde oturan halka 1.9 trilyon $ te\u015fvik paketi<\/strong> verildi. Bu denli b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tasarruf<\/strong> bulunmakta. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ve enflasyonun \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu bir evredeyiz. Enflasyon hedefleri, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, kapanma durumu ekonominin te\u015fviklerle devam edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermekte\u201d<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin normalle\u015fmesinin 2022\u2019i sonunu<\/strong> bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc K\u0131demli M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc G\u00f6khan Uskuay<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin son 4-5 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n belirsizlik<\/strong> i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7ti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekerek, yeni b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n en fazla y\u00fczde 4\u2019lerde kalabilece\u011fine vurgu yapt\u0131. Uskuay \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu: \u201c2020<\/strong> zaten toparlanma y\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131 ve krize<\/strong> bu toparlanma an\u0131nda yakaland\u0131k. Ancak \u015fu da var ki; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r kapansa da \u00fcretim tedarik zinciri kapanmad\u0131. D\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerinde tedarik zinciri s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131dayd\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye bunu avantaja d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeyi bildi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan pandemi bizim i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat oldu. \u00dcretim kapasitesinin y\u00fczde 110<\/strong> \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi, sanayi \u00fcretiminin son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n<\/strong> en y\u00fcksek rakam\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem oldu. Ancak Merkez Bankas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131<\/strong> ve s\u00fcreci sonras\u0131nda bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme konusunda kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atamad\u0131k ve f\u0131rsat\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131k.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/strong> ve riskleri de<\/strong> \u00f6zetleyen G\u00f6khan Uskuay<\/strong>, maddele\u015ftirerek \u015fu \u015fekilde s\u0131ralad\u0131.<\/p>\n

F\u0131rsatlar:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

– Normalle\u015fme<\/strong> ve baz y\u0131l\u0131 etkisi<\/strong> ile y\u00fcksek global b\u00fcy\u00fcme,<\/p>\n

– Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n te\u015fviklerini<\/strong> devam ettirmesiyle global likiditenin ve risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrecek olmas\u0131,<\/p>\n

– Riskli varl\u0131klara<\/strong> y\u00f6nelimde tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7arpanlarla i\u015flem g\u00f6rmemiz ve tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde<\/strong> bulunan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 seviyesi,<\/p>\n

– Enflasyonun baz etkisi<\/strong> ile d\u00fc\u015fmesi ile y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden<\/strong> itibaren faizlerde normalle\u015fme,<\/p>\n

Riskler:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

– Global likidite<\/strong> ve risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131nda<\/strong> art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak finansal varl\u0131klarda balon olu\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> ve y\u00fcksek volatilite,<\/p>\n

– Pandemi nedeniyle yasaklar\u0131n uzamas\u0131<\/strong> nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ve turizm gelirlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kalmas\u0131,<\/p>\n

– Y\u00fcksek global b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde dalgal\u0131 bir global enflasyon. Tedarik<\/strong> ve arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> emtiaya ek olarak normalle\u015fme ile birlikte art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek hizmet ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131,<\/p>\n

\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve TL\u2019de<\/strong> reel olarak de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n kur ge\u00e7i\u015fgenli\u011fi i\u00e7erisinde<\/strong> zaman alacak olmas\u0131, ters dolarizasyonun h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f olmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. EG\u0130AD Ege Gen\u00e7 \u0130\u015f \u0130nsanlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m hizmetleri ve varl\u0131k y\u00f6netimi grubu \u00dcNL\u00dc & Co i\u015fbirli\u011fi ile d\u00fczenledi\u011fi \u201c2021 Y\u0131l\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":133508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[89444,88252,71904,89442,89443,89445,89441,65956],"views":69,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133506"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/133508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}