{"id":131023,"date":"2021-03-11T12:46:30","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T09:46:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=131023"},"modified":"2021-03-11T13:00:23","modified_gmt":"2021-03-11T10:00:23","slug":"mckinsey-enerji-sektoru-nun-gelecegine-yonelik-4-senaryolu-ongoru-sundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/mckinsey-enerji-sektoru-nun-gelecegine-yonelik-4-senaryolu-ongoru-sundu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) ’McKinsey’den Enerji Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Gelece\u011fine Y\u00f6nelik 4 Senaryolu \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

McKinsey & Company, her y\u0131l d\u00fczenli olarak haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Global Enerji Perspektifi (GEP) 2021 raporunu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Pandeminin neden oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel ekonomik krizi ve enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ya\u015fananlar\u0131 mercek alt\u0131na alan rapor, enerji sistemlerinde ve talebindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. McKinsey uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fiyle ilgili belirsizlikleri yans\u0131tmak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131 4 ayr\u0131 senaryo \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin sunuldu\u011fu raporda yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne hakim olmas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

GEP 2021 raporu<\/strong>, pandeminin ba\u015f\u0131nda h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fen fosil yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n, ekonomiler yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterdi\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hareketlerin\"\" pandeminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizliklerin do\u011fal sonucu olarak kabul edildi\u011fi raporda; bu durumun, uzun vadeli senaryolar\u0131<\/strong> her zamankinden daha \u00f6nemli hale getirdi\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor. McKinsey uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 4 senaryo<\/strong>; karbon emisyon miktar\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede belirleyici rol oynayan yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na<\/strong> k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ge\u00e7i\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na g\u00f6re birbirinden ayr\u0131l\u0131yor. Referans senaryo; \u00fcretimde, t\u00fcketimde ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda, mevcut e\u011filimlerin devam\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyarken, McKinsey<\/strong> 1,5\u00b0C yol haritas\u0131<\/strong> senaryosu da k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 durdurmak<\/strong> i\u00e7in belirlenen hedefe ula\u015fmak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenleri i\u00e7eriyor. Geciken ge\u00e7i\u015f senaryosu enerji politikalar\u0131<\/strong>nda yenilenebilir kaynaklara y\u00f6nelimin azalmas\u0131<\/strong> varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131rken, h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015f senaryosu ise bu y\u00f6nelimin artaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n

Pandemi sonras\u0131 temel de\u011fi\u015fimler h\u0131zlan\u0131yor\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Bu senaryolar do\u011frultusunda, raporda payla\u015f\u0131lan ilk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc;<\/span> enerji t\u00fcketiminin, COVID-19 \u00f6ncesi<\/strong> seviyeye h\u0131zla gerileme e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle elektrik<\/strong> taraf\u0131nda, 2020\u2019de<\/strong> ya\u015fanan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f kesinti, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreciyle<\/strong> toparlan\u0131yor. Raporda; fosil yak\u0131t t\u00fcketimi<\/strong>nin, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmesi<\/strong> bekleniyor. Bu tabloda, petrol t\u00fcketim miktarlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7in 2029<\/strong>, do\u011falgaz i\u00e7in de 2037 y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong> tahmin ediliyor. Fosil yak\u0131tlara olan talep, COVID-19 \u00f6ncesindeki<\/strong> miktarlara d\u00f6nse bile, daha \u00f6nceden oldu\u011fu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filiminde<\/strong> olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n

Raporda yer alan 2’inci temel bulgu<\/strong> ise toplam enerji t\u00fcketiminin katlanarak artmas\u0131<\/strong> ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te hidrojenin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi senaryolara dayan\u0131yor. 2030\u2019larda<\/strong> maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan rekabet\u00e7i hale gelmesi beklenen hidrojenin<\/strong>, enerji ge\u00e7i\u015finde etkili olmas\u0131<\/strong> bekleniyor. G\u00fcne\u015f<\/strong> ve r\u00fczgar santralleri<\/strong>nin ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda<\/strong> d\u00fcnyan\u0131n elektrik \u00fcretim kapasitesinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131<\/strong> tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0 Bununla birlikte fosil yak\u0131tlara<\/strong> olan talebin zirveye ula\u015f\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 tarihlerin de \u00f6ne geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki<\/strong> zirvesinden sonra talep miktar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcren k\u00f6m\u00fcr<\/strong>, McKinsey uzmanlar\u0131na g\u00f6re; 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na<\/strong> gelindi\u011finde, ancak 1990 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki<\/strong> talep miktar\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Her 3 fosil yak\u0131t, talepteki uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe<\/strong> ra\u011fmen, k\u00fcresel enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131<\/strong>nda \u00f6nemli bir rol oynamaya devam ediyor. Referans senaryoya g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel enerji talebi<\/strong>nin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na<\/strong> kadar fosil yak\u0131tlar<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor. Fosil yak\u0131tlar i\u00e7erisinde petrol ve gaz talebi<\/strong> kimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn devam etmesi beklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi ile yerini koruyacak tahmini mevcut. Yenilenebilir enerjilere h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015f<\/strong> senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse fosil yak\u0131t t\u00fcketimi<\/strong>nin azalan t\u00fcketim pay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2050\u2019de karbon emisyon miktar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> referans senaryodan % 20<\/strong> daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

1,5\u00b0C hedefine ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in h\u0131zlanman\u0131n artmas\u0131 gerekiyor<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f<\/strong> s\u00fcrecinin, iklim krizini \u00f6nlemek<\/strong> amac\u0131yla ortaya konan 1,5\u00b0C<\/strong> hedefine ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok yava\u015f oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7eken 4’\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcye<\/strong> g\u00f6re; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131l kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte karbon emisyon miktar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin daha iddial\u0131 hedefleri, somut politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmesi<\/strong> gerekiyor. Zira referans senaryoya g\u00f6re; 2050\u2019de k\u00fcresel karbon emisyonunun<\/strong> halen y\u0131ll\u0131k 25 Gigaton (Gt) seviyelerinde<\/strong> olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ve t\u00fcketicilerin, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fe<\/strong> olan ilgisinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten McKinsey uzmanlar\u0131<\/strong>; i\u015f liderlerine, \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye fark g\u00f6steren de\u011fi\u015fimin y\u00f6n\u00fcne ve h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin i\u015faretlere dikkat etmelerini \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n

McKinsey & Company Orta\u011f\u0131 Eren \u00c7etinkaya:\u00a0<\/strong>\u201c2030\u2019larda hidrojen, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u2018oyun de\u011fi\u015ftiricisi\u2019 olacak\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n maliyet avantajlar\u0131 sayesinde, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda<\/strong> k\u00fcresel enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne h\u00e2kim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten McKinsey & Company Orta\u011f\u0131 ve B\u00f6lge Enerji \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Grubu Lideri Eren \u00c7etinkaya<\/strong>; \u201cEnerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki mevcut e\u011filimlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda<\/strong> da s\u00fcrece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe, enerji depolama teknolojisi<\/strong>ndeki geli\u015fmeler eklendik\u00e7e; yenilenebilir kaynaklar, fosil yak\u0131tlara kar\u015f\u0131<\/strong> daha rekabet\u00e7i hale geliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131ndan \u00fcretilecek hidrojenin<\/strong> pay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elde edece\u011fi avantajla hidrojenin, 2030\u2019larda<\/strong> sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u2018oyun de\u011fi\u015ftiricisi\u2019<\/strong> haline gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bunlarla birlikte Global Enerji Perspektifi raporu<\/strong>muz, yenilenebilir enerjideki b\u00fct\u00fcn bu olumlu geli\u015fmelerin, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmada<\/strong> bir e\u015fik noktas\u0131 olan 1,5 \u00b0C<\/strong> s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya yetmeyece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.\u00a0McKinsey 1,5\u00b0C<\/strong> yol haritas\u0131 senaryomuza g\u00f6re; k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte karbon emisyonu<\/strong>nu, 2030\u2019a<\/strong> kadar % 50<\/strong> ve 2050\u2019ye<\/strong> kadar da % 85<\/strong> oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmemiz gerekiyor\u201d<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

Raporun Tamam\u0131na Ula\u015fmak \u0130\u00e7in\u00a0TIKLAYIN >>><\/a><\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. McKinsey & Company, her y\u0131l d\u00fczenli olarak haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Global Enerji Perspektifi (GEP) 2021 raporunu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Pandeminin neden oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel ekonomik krizi ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":131028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,49,50],"tags":[23730,87785,87784,87786,11933,62138,66908,87787,54979],"views":150,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131023"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131023\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/131028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=131023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=131023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}