{"id":129893,"date":"2021-02-22T13:09:49","date_gmt":"2021-02-22T10:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=129893"},"modified":"2021-02-22T13:10:44","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T10:10:44","slug":"ekonomik-soguma-donemine-girdik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/ekonomik-soguma-donemine-girdik\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Ekonomik So\u011fuma D\u00f6nemine Girdik!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerle haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019\u0131n yeni say\u0131s\u0131nda pandemi sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin makro veriler de\u011ferlendirildi. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, bilinmeyenle m\u00fccadeleyle ge\u00e7en 2020\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan 2021 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonominin so\u011fuma y\u0131l\u0131 olacak. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden T\u00fcrkiye ve \u00c7in pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmleriyle di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong> ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde<\/strong> y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fini inceledi. Pandemi etkisiyle ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda \u00f6nc\u00fc verilere g\u00f6re en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulanan Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a<\/strong> g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel toparlanma<\/strong> ve yaralar\u0131n sar\u0131lmas\u0131yla<\/strong> ge\u00e7ecek. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle ilgili her co\u011frafya farkl\u0131 sinyaller veriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den gelen i\u015faretler umutlu.<\/p>\n

\"\"D\u00fcnyada 2020\u2019nin son \u00e7eyre\u011fi Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019tan \u015f\u00f6yle yans\u0131d\u0131:<\/span><\/p>\n

– Yaz-boz tahtas\u0131<\/strong> gibi ge\u00e7en 2020\u2019de salg\u0131n e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir ekonomik \u00e7alkant\u0131ya sebep oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda a\u015f\u0131 haberleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde g\u00f6receli iyile\u015fen beklentilere ra\u011fmen, temel ekonomik<\/strong> ve siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde<\/strong> etkisi uzun s\u00fcre devam edecek de\u011fi\u015fimler ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

– Bahar aylar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan karma\u015fa<\/strong> ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserle\u015fen beklentiler<\/strong>, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yerini umutlara b\u0131rakt\u0131. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri olumlu y\u00f6nde revize<\/strong> edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda % 6<\/strong>\u2019lar seviyesinde beklenen k\u00fcresel daralma, % 4<\/strong>\u2019ler seviyesinde kalacak. Hasar\u0131n tamiri<\/strong> ise iyi ihtimalle 2021 sonunda<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

– Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6nce k\u00f6t\u00fcye do\u011fru<\/strong>, sonra da iyiye do\u011fru<\/strong> revize edildi. Son d\u00f6nemde gelen revizyonlar olumlu<\/strong> olmakla birlikte, k\u00fcresel bir daralma ya\u015fanacak<\/strong> ve bu daralman\u0131n merkezi en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131z<\/strong> olan Avrupa Birli\u011fi<\/strong> olacak.<\/p>\n

– Artan merkez bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda sa\u011flanan trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k<\/strong> mali destekler, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli ve olumlu bir altyap\u0131<\/strong> olu\u015fturuyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca<\/strong> da devam edecek.<\/p>\n

– Pandemi GSYH<\/strong>\u2019leri tarihte \u00e7ok az g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fekliyle daraltt\u0131. Bu nedenle 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri<\/strong>, bir\u00e7ok ekonomi i\u00e7in iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret edecek. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 ve birikmi\u015f taleple ba\u015fta Asya<\/strong> ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa<\/strong> olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgede toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcme % 5<\/strong>\u2019i a\u015facak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli ticari partnerlerini<\/strong> bar\u0131nd\u0131ran Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fcme % 5.2<\/strong> olarak tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

– Bununla birlikte b\u00f6lgesel daralma beklentileri i<\/strong>\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck yaray\u0131 AB \u00fclkelerinin almas\u0131<\/strong> bekleniyor. Uzak Asya<\/strong> ise salg\u0131n\u0131 ilk ya\u015fayan ve s\u00fcreci ilk tamamlayan b\u00f6lge olarak, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabilecek kapasitede g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

– Salg\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa<\/strong>\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etki k\u00fcresel ortalamalar\u0131n<\/strong> \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> ve yer yer kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> k\u0131tada mevcut yap\u0131sal sorunlar durgunlu\u011fun<\/strong> derinle\u015fmesine sebep oluyor.<\/p>\n

– Y\u0131l ortas\u0131 tahminlerine g\u00f6re % 9<\/strong> seviyesinde daralmas\u0131 beklenen AB<\/strong> i\u00e7in son tahminler % 7,5<\/strong> seviyesinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye i\u015faret ediyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong> i\u00e7in beklenti % 3,5<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fcme seviyesinde.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de tablo a\u011f\u0131r<\/strong><\/h2>\n

– Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, art\u0131k birlik \u00fcyesi olmasa da \u0130ngiltere en a\u011f\u0131r fatura<\/strong> ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan \u00fclke olacak. 2020\u2019yi % 10<\/strong>\u2019un \u00fczerinde daralmayla kapatmas\u0131<\/strong> beklenen \u00fclkede ekonominin yeniden eski temposuna<\/strong> kavu\u015fmas\u0131 y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n

– AB\u2019nin bu durumu, T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131n\u0131n % 50<\/strong>\u2019sinin bu b\u00f6lgeye yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olumsuz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Geli\u015fen ekonomilerde durum<\/strong><\/h2>\n

– Geli\u015fen \u00fclke (EM) ekonomileri<\/strong>, salg\u0131ndan beklendi\u011fi gibi daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma s\u00fcreci ile \u00e7\u0131kacaklar. Ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in<\/strong>\u2019in \u00e7ekti\u011fi gruptaki \u00fclkeler gerek y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim fakt\u00f6rleri<\/strong> potansiyelleri gerekse de adaptasyon kabiliyetleri<\/strong> ile avantaj sa\u011flayacaklar.<\/p>\n

– Bol likidite<\/strong> ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz<\/strong> ortam\u0131, belirli miktarda riski kabullenen<\/strong> ve daha y\u00fcksek getiri<\/strong> aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan portf\u00f6ylerin \u00fclkelere giri\u015finin tetiklenmesini sa\u011flayacak. Risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, EM ekonomileri<\/strong> i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kazan\u0131m.<\/p>\n

– Gruptaki \u00fclkelerden 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapatmas\u0131 beklenen \u00fclkeler ise \u00c7in<\/strong> ve T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong>. \u00c7in, salg\u0131n s\u00fcrecini erken ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> yakalad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ise bunu, bug\u00fcn i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcrecini<\/strong> tetikleyen kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi stratejisi<\/strong> ile yakalad\u0131.<\/p>\n

– Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2021\u2019de \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklenen EM \u00fclkeleri<\/strong>nde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif<\/strong>. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi bu grup, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131mlar sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in beklentiler<\/strong><\/h2>\n

– T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2020 hem salg\u0131n<\/strong> hem jeopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan<\/strong> sars\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Salg\u0131n s\u00fcreci, k\u00fcresel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme paralel seyretti. Toparlanma da k\u00fcresel toparlanma<\/strong> ile paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

– Yerel ekonomi taraf\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131 ile sonu aras\u0131ndaki politika farkl\u0131. GSYH daralmas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alabilmek i\u00e7in uygulanan kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi politikas\u0131<\/strong>ndan vazge\u00e7ilmesi ancak bu esnada do\u011fan enflasyonist<\/strong> bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. T\u00fcrkiye 2020\u2019yi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> ile kapatacak olsa da bozulan dengelerin yerini bulmas\u0131 zaman alacak. T\u00fcrkiye 2021\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131<\/strong> ve ekonomik so\u011fuma s\u00fcreci<\/strong> ile ge\u00e7irecek. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te at\u0131lacak reform ad\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong> ise y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 ve daha uzun vade<\/strong> i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli temel ta\u015f\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

– \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong> i\u00e7in de en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanma ad\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda<\/strong> at\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131, geli\u015fen ekonomiler<\/strong> i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7lenen sermaye giri\u015fleri<\/strong>, hemen t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131<\/strong> ve normalle\u015fmeye<\/strong> ba\u015flayan genel makro g\u00f6stergeler<\/strong> ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n

– K\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler<\/strong> \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece olumlu olmakla birlikte<\/strong> salg\u0131nda yeni dalgalar\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131<\/strong> ya da a\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinin beklendi\u011fi<\/strong> gibi devam etmemesi<\/strong> gibi riskler \u00f6nemini koruyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimler<\/strong> ise kal\u0131c\u0131 hale<\/strong> geldi. Yeni d\u00fczene b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zla adapte<\/strong> olan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi yeni modeller; yak\u0131n gelece\u011fin normalleri<\/strong> olarak hayat\u0131m\u0131zdaki yerlerini alacaklar. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te tan\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yenilikler<\/strong> gelece\u011fe uzanan k\u00f6pr\u00fcn\u00fcn temel ta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> olu\u015fturacaklar.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerle haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019\u0131n yeni say\u0131s\u0131nda pandemi sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin makro veriler de\u011ferlendirildi. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, bilinmeyenle m\u00fccadeleyle ge\u00e7en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":129895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[86932,52259,83571,86931,86934,86933],"views":88,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129893"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}