{"id":115770,"date":"2020-06-22T21:53:26","date_gmt":"2020-06-22T18:53:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=115770"},"modified":"2020-06-22T21:58:24","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T18:58:24","slug":"kuresel-ekonomik-beklentiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kuresel-ekonomik-beklentiler\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00fcresel Ekonomik Beklentiler"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve do\u011furdu\u011fu geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 \u00f6nlemler, petrol talebinde benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe, petrol stoklar\u0131nda ise bir art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu. Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Pandemi, ekonomik ya\u015famda ciddi aksamalara neden olurken, merkez bankalar\u0131 kur faizlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve piyasalara ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir likidite enjekte edildi.<\/h1>\n

Brent petrol<\/strong>, COVID-19\u2019un insandan insana ilk bula\u015fma tarihi olan 22 Ocak\u2019tan<\/strong> petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n dip noktas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 21 Nisan\u2019a<\/strong> kadar %85 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/strong> g\u00f6sterdi. Mart 2020<\/strong>\u2019de petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>nda bir ay i\u00e7erisindeki tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Pandeminin k\u00fcresel bir durgunlu\u011fa<\/strong> yol a\u00e7an k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131, petrol talebi<\/strong>nin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisini olu\u015fturan seyahat ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> sekt\u00f6rlerini alt \u00fcst etmi\u015ftir. Petrol talebi<\/strong>nin 2020<\/strong> i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %9<\/strong> oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde, mevcut petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn benzeri alt\u0131 dalgalanma d\u00f6nemi daha ya\u015fand\u0131<\/strong> fakat hi\u00e7 birisi COVID-19<\/strong> sureci kadar sert olmad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, pandemiyle ilgili k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar hafifledi\u011finde, y\u00fcksek stok seviyeleri<\/strong> ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> k\u00fcresel ekonomik faaliyetlerin canlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc bir destek sa\u011flayabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar<\/strong>, kalan enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131<\/strong> da dahil olmak \u00fczere enerji fiyatland\u0131rma politikalar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olabilir. Enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na gelince, salg\u0131n, rekabeti g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek, maliye<\/strong> ve para politikas\u0131<\/strong> \u00e7er\u00e7evelerini geli\u015ftirmek gibi, ekonomiyi \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme reformlar\u0131na<\/strong> ivedilik kazand\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak 2020<\/strong> ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l sonuna dek petrol talebi<\/strong>nin daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f %9<\/strong>\u2019luk bir oranla d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor ki bu, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki petrol bazl\u0131 talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri<\/strong>nin 2 kat\u0131ndan da fazla bir oran. Son 70 y\u0131lda<\/strong> d\u00f6rt k\u00fcresel kriz ya\u015fand\u0131: 1975, 1982, 1991 ve 2009<\/strong>. Her birinde, k\u00fcresel anlamda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fcretimde ciddi bir daralma ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik faaliyetlerin<\/strong> bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6stergesinde geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 1970 y\u0131l\u0131ndan<\/strong> bu yana petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere<\/strong> k\u00fcresel finansal krizlerin e\u015flik etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

1998, 2001 ve 2008-09<\/strong> petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler talebe dayal\u0131yken; 1985-86 ve 2014-16<\/strong> petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131ras\u0131yla, be\u015fte d\u00f6rt<\/strong> ve \u00fc\u00e7te iki<\/strong> oranla arz kaynakl\u0131 idi. Ancak, 1990-91<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Irak\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019i i\u015fgalinin tetikledi\u011fi k\u00fcresel durgunlu\u011fu yans\u0131tan, neredeyse e\u015fit bir arz ve talep krizi idi. K\u00fcresel durgunluklarla ili\u015fkili olan petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler<\/strong> k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc ve daha y\u00fczeysel iken, arz kaynakl\u0131 olanlarda ise daha uzun s\u00fcreli fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri<\/strong> ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n patlak vermesiyle tetiklenen k\u00fcresel ekonomik durgunlu\u011fa<\/strong> yol a\u00e7an k\u0131s\u0131tlamalara, petrol talebi ve fiyatlar\u0131nda benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f<\/strong> e\u015flik etmi\u015ftir. Enerji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 faaliyetleri k\u0131s\u0131tlayan, pandemi etkilerini azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerinin etkisi ve enerji ihra\u00e7 eden EMDE (Geli\u015fmekte Olan Pazarlar ve Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler)<\/strong>\u2019nin bu etkilere kar\u015f\u0131 koymak i\u00e7in daha az mali kapasitesi olmas\u0131<\/strong> nedeniyle, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir etki yaratma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. Pandeminin olas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli hasar\u0131<\/strong> ve normalle\u015fme<\/strong> sureci, enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131<\/strong> i\u00e7in reform gerektirecektir. Enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131<\/strong>na gelince, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/strong>, uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yeniden y\u00f6netmek ve kal\u0131c\u0131 mali reformlar<\/strong> yaratmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsatt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0\u201cGlobal Economic Prospects\u201d The World Bank<\/p>\n

Yay\u0131na Haz\u0131rlayan: D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi \/ T\u00fcrk Milli Komitesi\u00a0<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve do\u011furdu\u011fu geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 \u00f6nlemler, petrol talebinde benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe, petrol stoklar\u0131nda ise bir art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,44],"tags":[4846,49167,67254,68754,71090,19799,74308,52259,74307,53153,347,2415],"views":70,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115770"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}