{"id":111834,"date":"2020-04-14T23:12:21","date_gmt":"2020-04-14T20:12:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=111834"},"modified":"2020-04-14T23:12:21","modified_gmt":"2020-04-14T20:12:21","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-14-04-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-14-04-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 14.04.2020 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; <\/span><\/h1>\n

– Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dikkatlerini OPEC + koalisyonunun \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7evirmesi ile birlikte tekrar y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/h1>\n

– ABD Ulusal Yenilenebilir Enerji Laboratuar\u0131\u2019nda (NREL) bilim insanlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k % 50<\/strong> verimlili\u011fe sahip\u00a0bir g\u00fcne\u015f h\u00fccresi \u00fcrettiler.<\/h1>\n

– OPEC+\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda istenen yukar\u0131 hareketi getirmedi.<\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda<\/strong> yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh)<\/strong> ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 210<\/strong>.05<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma<\/strong> bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 300<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 08<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 09<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 147<\/strong>.88 TL\/MWh<\/strong> olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – \"\"07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131<\/strong> ise 229<\/strong>.18<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/strong> ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda –4<\/strong>.21<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 7<\/strong>, linyit % 11<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 13<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 51<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 11<\/strong>, jeotermal % 4<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak hidroelektrik santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi<\/strong> sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 74<\/strong>.41<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 29,796<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131<\/strong> g\u00fcnl\u00fck % –1<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 85<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 91<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 94<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 181<\/strong>.54 TL\/MWH<\/strong> olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 321<\/strong>.08<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 19<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 20<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 25<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatler<\/strong>de (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 276<\/strong>.81<\/strong> TL\/MWh<\/strong> olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP)<\/strong> dahilinde 01<\/strong>.04<\/strong>.2020<\/strong> \u2013 14<\/strong>.04<\/strong>.2020<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)<\/strong> 1,432<\/strong>.26<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 31,991<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)<\/strong> ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)<\/strong> kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformu<\/strong>nda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformu<\/strong>nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri<\/strong> kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131;<\/strong> t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri<\/strong> yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari<\/strong> ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \/ Electrical and Electronics Engineering \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dikkatlerini OPEC + koalisyonunun \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7evirmesi ile […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":111841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[70125,52407,33243,56811,32885,60435,61,34979,57202,53868,36029,53114,3804,5070,343,19638,8304,39373,34980,39661,11326,50387,160,39426,59050,26353,52674,130,4996,8184,19,42030,52379,54244,94,23532,43864,52259,56147,4881,28926,68575,59027,70126,53157,26598,54628,4532,60938,3216,12829,21940,60054,1581,2282,53902,53582,57578,64117,4349,1377,70054,36950,56150,68359,53153,347,14922,6402,53989,69994,53282,56906,69990,52378,64314,69995,39351,846,62189,43478,44802],"views":177,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111834"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}