{"id":105173,"date":"2019-12-24T13:36:02","date_gmt":"2019-12-24T10:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=105173"},"modified":"2019-12-24T13:41:21","modified_gmt":"2019-12-24T10:41:21","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-23-12-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-23-12-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 23.12.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; <\/span><\/h1>\n

– Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Kuveyt’in Suudi Arabistan ile s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesinde petrol \u00fcretimi anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yenileyece\u011fini i\u015faret etmesi ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/h1>\n

– Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD), Enerjisa Enerji’ye elektrik da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmek \u00fczere 100<\/strong> milyon dolar finansman sa\u011flayacak.<\/h1>\n

– Elektrikli ara\u00e7lar\u0131n en ekonomik \u015fekilde \u015farj edilebilmesi ve \u015febekenin zorlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u015farj davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek.<\/h1>\n

– Zamana g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fen elektrik tarifeleri geli\u015ftirilmesi \u00f6nerildi.<\/h1>\n

– E\u00dcA\u015e, yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc desteklemek amac\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde olan santrallerin de oldu\u011fu \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u015fletti\u011fi santrallardan 28<\/strong> milyar kilovatsaat\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n elektrik sat\u0131n alacak.<\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh)<\/strong> ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 305<\/strong>.81<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"333<\/strong>.27<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 18<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 200<\/strong>.01<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 05<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 322<\/strong>.2<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 51<\/strong>.17<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde<\/strong> do\u011fal gaz % 25<\/strong>, linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 24<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 22<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 8<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 309<\/strong>.18<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33,629<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 88<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 97<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 91<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 94<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 316<\/strong>.06<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 335<\/strong>.01<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 18<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 269<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 03<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 327<\/strong>.88<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP)<\/strong> dahilinde 01<\/strong>.12<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 23<\/strong>.12<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,421<\/strong>.5<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 93,002<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Kurum \u0130\u00e7i Giri\u015fimcilik ve Inovasyon Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Kuveyt’in Suudi Arabistan ile s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesinde petrol \u00fcretimi anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105178,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[44699,52375,42701,42490,52377,42485,42486,42484,46702,42488,42489,52376,63556,1079,45271,50069,32885,60435,61,34979,57202,53868,36029,53114,5070,343,19638,8304,39373,34980,39661,50387,34818,39426,59050,26353,52674,4341,63560,130,8184,56562,19,42030,54965,52379,54244,53544,63559,52259,56147,4881,32092,422,37825,750,28926,1033,10931,51154,37494,54628,10624,60054,1373,1581,29230,2282,53902,53582,57578,56150,347,887,1369,32005,1388,52378,57125,37032,1463,34977,3733,6854,2629,54979,39351,846,26829,508,1245,46036,63558],"views":261,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105173"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}