{"id":101913,"date":"2019-10-30T16:10:58","date_gmt":"2019-10-30T13:10:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=101913"},"modified":"2019-10-30T16:11:15","modified_gmt":"2019-10-30T13:11:15","slug":"iklim-degisikligine-yonelik-yeni-ve-carpici-bir-arastirma-daha-yayimlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/iklim-degisikligine-yonelik-yeni-ve-carpici-bir-arastirma-daha-yayimlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) ’\u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi’ne Y\u00f6nelik Yeni ve \u00c7arp\u0131c\u0131 Bir Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Daha Yay\u0131mland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, deniz seviyesi y\u00fckselmesinin d\u00fcnyada tehdit etti\u011fi ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 daha \u00f6nce tahmin edilenden 3 kat daha fazla ve\u00a0iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131 tehdidi alt\u0131ndaki kentsel alanlarda ya\u015fayanlar daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden y\u00fcz milyonlarca ki\u015fi daha fazlad\u0131r. En k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u00f6lgeler ise G\u00fcney Asya’da yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Princeton, ABD \u2013 29 Ekim 2019 \u2013 Climate Central<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ve Nature Communications<\/strong>‘da yay\u0131mlanan bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, 2050 itibar\u0131yla halihaz\u0131rda 300 milyon ki\u015finin<\/strong> ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklarda, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131 deniz seviyesindeki y\u00fckselmeye<\/strong> ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \"\"kara seviyesinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Y\u00fcksek gelgit seviyeleri<\/strong> ise, 30 milyonu \u00c7in\u2019de<\/strong> olmak \u00fczere, yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 milyon ki\u015finin<\/strong> ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak su alt\u0131nda<\/strong> b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu bulgular, Climate Central taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen yeni bir dijital y\u00fckseklik modeli olan CoastalDEM’e dayand\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, k\u0131y\u0131sal ta\u015fk\u0131n risklerinin uluslararas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesinde \u015fimdiye kadar kullan\u0131lan NASA<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n Shuttle Radar Topography Mission\u2019\u0131n (SRTM)<\/strong> temel y\u00fckseklik veri setindeki sistematik hatalar\u0131 d\u00fczeltmek i\u00e7in yapay zeka y\u00f6ntemleri kulland\u0131lar. CoastalDEM<\/strong> ile elde edilen tahminler, risk alt\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel<\/strong> n\u00fcfusun SRTM y\u00fckseklik verileri<\/strong> kullan\u0131larak tespit edilenden 3 kat fazla<\/strong> oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Climate Central<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma\u00a0<\/a>135 \u00fclkeyi farkl\u0131 iklim senaryolar\u0131<\/strong> ve y\u0131llara g\u00f6re ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. Climate Central<\/strong> elde etti\u011fi yeni y\u00fckseklik verileri, tehdit alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerin<\/strong> mahalle d\u00fczeyinde incelenebilmesi i\u00e7in detayl\u0131 bir interaktif haritada <\/a>dijitalle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, k\u0131y\u0131 tahkimat\u0131 olmadan 2050 itibar\u0131yla<\/strong> en az y\u0131lda bir kere k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayabilecek ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131, yeni y\u00fckseklik verileriyle 4 kat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde artarak, yakla\u015f\u0131k 237 milyon<\/strong> ki\u015fiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 6 Asya \u00fclkesinde ya\u015f\u0131yor – (\u00c7in, Banglade\u015f, Hindistan, Vietnam, Endonezya ve Tayland).<\/p>\n

Tehdit alt\u0131ndaki arazilerdeki art\u0131\u015f en fazla Asya k\u0131tas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u0130yile\u015ftirilmi\u015f y\u00fckseklik verilerine dayanan de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re, sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131nda orta d\u00fczeyde azalt\u0131mlarla bile, 6 Asya \u00fclkesinde halihaz\u0131rda 237 milyon insana ev sahipli\u011fi yapan topraklar, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131<\/strong> tehdidine maruz kalabilir. Bu say\u0131, bug\u00fcne kadar kullan\u0131lan y\u00fckseklik verileriyle elde edilenden 183 milyon daha y\u00fcksek*.<\/p>\n

#1: \u00c7in \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 93 milyon – (eski) 29 milyon<\/p>\n

#2: Banglade\u015f \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 42 milyon – (eski) 5 milyon<\/p>\n

#3: Hindistan \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 36 milyon – (eski). 5 milyon<\/p>\n

#4: Vietnam \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 31 milyon – (eski) 9 milyon<\/p>\n

#5: Endonezya \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 23 milyon – (eski) 5 milyon<\/p>\n

#6: Tayland \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 12 milyon – (eski) 1 milyon<\/p>\n

Bu de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re, kontrols\u00fcz emisyonlar ve buz tabakas\u0131<\/strong>nda erken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7l\u0131 istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k da hesaba dahil edildi\u011fi takdirde, 2100 itibar\u0131yla bu 6 \u00fclkede* halihaz\u0131rda 250 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar gelgit \u00e7izgisinin<\/strong> alt\u0131nda kalacak. Bu say\u0131, SRMT y\u00fckseklik verileriyle elde edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 kat\u0131.*<\/p>\n

#1: \u00c7in \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 87 milyon \u2013 (eski) 26 milyon<\/p>\n

#2: Banglade\u015f \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 50 milyon \u2013 (eski) 6 milyon<\/p>\n

#3: Hindistan \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 38 milyon \u2013 (eski) 6 milyon<\/p>\n

#4: Vietnam \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 35 milyon \u2013 (eski) 13 milyon<\/p>\n

#5: Endonezya \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 27 milyon \u2013 (eski) 6 milyon<\/p>\n

#6: Tayland \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 13 milyon \u2013 (eski) 2 milyon<\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015fyazarlar\u0131ndan Climate Central\u2019dan Dr. Scott Kulp<\/strong>, \u201cBu de\u011ferlendirmeler, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ya\u015fam s\u00fcremiz i\u00e7inde \u015fehirleri, ekonomileri, k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feritlerini ve b\u00f6lgeleri yeniden \u015fekillendirme potansiyelini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r\u201d dedi. \u201cGelgit seviyesi, k\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7izgisinin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclkeler k\u0131y\u0131 tahkimat\u0131n\u0131n kendilerini koruyup koruyamayaca\u011f\u0131na, ve ne kadar ve ne uzunlukta k\u0131y\u0131 tahkimat\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair sorularla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak.\u201d<\/p>\n

Climate Central\u2019\u0131n bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ortaya koydu\u011funu bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fimdiden ya\u015fanmakta; yakla\u015f\u0131k 110 milyon ki\u015fi<\/strong> deniz duvarlar\u0131, setleri ve di\u011fer k\u0131y\u0131 tahkimatlar\u0131yla gelgit seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalan topraklarda ya\u015f\u0131yor. Mevcut ve gelecekte kurulacak muhtemel tahkimatlar\u0131n etkileri, veri eksikli\u011finden dolay\u0131 bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada yer alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

CoastalDEM daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehditi nas\u0131l tespit ediyor?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

K\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinin k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan ba\u015fl\u0131ca y\u00fckseklik veri seti olan SRTM, alan\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc oldu\u011fu durumlarda a\u011fa\u00e7 tepeleri ve \u00e7at\u0131lar gibi g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcne en yak\u0131n y\u00fczeylerin y\u00fcksekliklerini \u00f6l\u00e7er. Bunun sonucunda SRTM ile yap\u0131lan k\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fckseklikleri tahminleri ortalama 2 metre (6 feet), y\u00fcksek yo\u011funluklu kentsel alanlarda ise 4 metre (13 feet) kadar daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve bu alanlar\u0131n ta\u015fk\u0131nlar ve deniz seviyesindeki y\u00fckselme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli oldu\u011funa dair hatal\u0131 bilgi elde ediliyor. CoastalDEM ise bu hata pay\u0131n\u0131 ortalama olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 santimetreye (4 in\u00e7) kadar indiriyor.<\/p>\n

Az say\u0131da \u00fclke, genellikle hava lidar\u0131na dayanan daha kesin y\u00fckseklik verileri toplam\u0131\u015f ve yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; CoastalDEM\u2019in kalibrasyonu ve validasyonu bu verilerle kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Raporun ba\u015f yazarlar\u0131ndan<\/strong>, Climate Central CEO\u2019su Benjamin Strauss<\/strong>, \u201c\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve deniz seviyesi projeksiyonlar\u0131<\/strong> \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan t\u00fcm \u00f6nemli ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar i\u00e7in, d\u00fcnyadaki k\u0131y\u0131 alanlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131nda ayaklar\u0131m\u0131z alt\u0131ndaki zeminin y\u00fcksekli\u011fini bilmedi\u011fimiz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u201d dedi. \u201cVerilerimiz resmi netle\u015ftiriyor, ancak yine de h\u00fck\u00fcmetler ve havac\u0131l\u0131k ve uzay sanayinin daha do\u011fru y\u00fckseklik verileri \u00fcretmesi ve yay\u0131nlamas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 var. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n hayatlar\u0131 ve ge\u00e7im kaynaklar\u0131 buna ba\u011fl\u0131. \u201d<\/p>\n

Tehdit seviyesi karbon emisyonu d\u00fczeyine ba\u011fl\u0131<\/h2>\n

CoastalDEM<\/strong>‘e dayand\u0131r\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re, bug\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 420 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin, makul d\u00fczeyde karbon emisyonu azalt\u0131m\u0131<\/strong> yap\u0131lsa bile, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Burada \u00f6zetlenen tahminler muhtemelen muhafazakar tahminlerdir, zira 2015 Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong> hedefleriyle uyumlu standart deniz seviyesi projeksiyonlar\u0131 ve karbon emisyonu azalt\u0131mlar\u0131na<\/strong> dayand\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r ve bug\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen k\u00fcresel \u00e7abalar Paris hedeflerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in yetersiz kalmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kontrol edilemeyen emisyon ve buz tabakas\u0131ndaki<\/strong> muhtemel erken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7l\u0131 karars\u0131zl\u0131k projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong> itibar\u0131yla halihaz\u0131rda 340 milyonun<\/strong> ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar gelgit seviyesinin<\/strong> alt\u0131nda kalacak ve toplam 640 milyon ki\u015finin<\/strong> ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerler de deniz seviyesindeki y\u00fckselme<\/strong> riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. g\u00f6steriyor. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, 8 Asya \u00fclkesinde halihaz\u0131rda en az 10 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar gelgit seviyesinin<\/strong> alt\u0131nda kalacak.<\/p>\n

2100 itibar\u0131yla d\u00fczenli olarak k\u0131y\u0131sal ta\u015fk\u0131n riski<\/strong> alt\u0131nda kalacak n\u00fcfus (CoastalDEM verileri ve bug\u00fcne kadar kullan\u0131lan y\u00fckseklik veri seti)<\/p>\n

1- \u00c7in \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 87 milyon – (eski) 26 milyon<\/p>\n

2- Banglade\u015f \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 50 milyon – (eski) 6 milyon<\/p>\n

3- Hindistan\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0(yeni) 38 milyon – (eski) \u00a06 milyon<\/p>\n

4- Vietnam\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 (yeni) 35 milyon – (eski) 13 milyon<\/p>\n

5- Endonezya \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (yeni) 27 milyon – (eski) 6 milyon<\/p>\n

6- Tayland\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 (yeni) 13 milyon – (eski) 2 milyon<\/p>\n

7- Japonya\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0(yeni) 12 milyon – (eski) 7 milyon<\/p>\n

8- Filipinler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0(yeni) 11 milyon- (eski) 2 milyon<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, deniz seviyesi y\u00fckselmesinin d\u00fcnyada tehdit etti\u011fi ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 daha \u00f6nce tahmin edilenden 3 kat daha fazla ve\u00a0iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,52],"tags":[45192,59823,20625,59831,886,59819,59821,59836,59835,59822,59828,59827,52259,59830,59829,48150,4034,41159,59832,53468,7181,59825,59826,59839,59838,59834,59840,1942,59837,59833,59824,9424,59820],"views":418,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101913"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101913\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}