{"id":101473,"date":"2019-10-23T08:12:54","date_gmt":"2019-10-23T05:12:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=101473"},"modified":"2019-10-23T08:12:54","modified_gmt":"2019-10-23T05:12:54","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-22-10-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-22-10-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 22.10.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcndeme dair haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/h1>\n

– SOCAR AQS GM \u0130sayev, “Tuz G\u00f6l\u00fc Do\u011fal Gaz Yer Alt\u0131 Depolama Geni\u015fletme Projesi kapsam\u0131nda gaz depolama alanlar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 40<\/strong> kuyu a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131z. Milyonlarca dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m hedefimiz var” dedi.<\/h1>\n

– IEA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, son 4 y\u0131lda ajansta kad\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 %49<\/strong>\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve bunu sadece adalet i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7ok daha iyi kararlar alabildikleri i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiklerini dile getirdi.<\/h1>\n

– Sabanc\u0131 \u00dcniversitesi Kurucu M\u00fctevelli Heyeti Ba\u015fkan\u0131 G\u00fcler Sabanc\u0131, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cinsiyet dengesizli\u011finin en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6r olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/h1>\n

– Alman enerji \u015firketi Energie Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg AG (EnBW) 180<\/strong> MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck te\u015fviksiz g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi santralini kuracak.<\/h1>\n

– ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Suriye petrol\u00fcn\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in az say\u0131da ABD askerinin Suriye\u2019nin \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve \u0130srail\u2019e yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 285<\/strong>.34<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"335<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 18<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 19<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 169<\/strong>.99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak :00<\/strong> – 01<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 328<\/strong>.94<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 2<\/strong>.42<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 16<\/strong>, linyit % 18<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 27<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 21<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 13<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 310<\/strong>.61<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 32,453<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 72<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 100<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 91<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 93<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 315<\/strong>.64<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 333<\/strong>.34<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 18<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 19<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 260<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak :00<\/strong> – 01<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 327<\/strong>.55<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.10<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 22<\/strong>.10<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,456<\/strong>.83<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 71,102<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcndeme dair haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – SOCAR AQS GM \u0130sayev, “Tuz G\u00f6l\u00fc Do\u011fal Gaz Yer Alt\u0131 Depolama […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[21812,59264,32124,56811,52373,52374,49519,52375,42701,42490,52377,42485,42486,42484,46702,42488,42489,52376,1079,45271,50069,25180,61,34979,57202,53868,36029,53114,343,19638,7285,8304,39373,34980,39661,50387,39426,59050,26353,52674,53647,130,8184,56562,19,42030,59265,41345,52379,54244,52259,59263,148,56147,4881,2765,18,47575,422,35152,818,59262,1049,1023,59260,54628,40290,1581,29230,2282,53902,2470,59160,59268,39352,1075,59259,52378,59267,1463,34977,3733,6854,59266,39351,59261,105,26829,29074,508],"views":368,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101473"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}