{"id":101089,"date":"2019-10-17T05:14:32","date_gmt":"2019-10-17T02:14:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=101089"},"modified":"2019-10-20T00:55:12","modified_gmt":"2019-10-19T21:55:12","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-16-10-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-16-10-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 16.10.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan\u00a0g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/h1>\n

– Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Ceyhan Boru Hatt\u0131’n\u0131n son dura\u011f\u0131 Ceyhan il\u00e7esindeki Haydar Aliyev Deniz Terminali’nden 2006<\/strong>‘dan itibaren 4<\/strong> bin 300<\/strong>‘den fazla tankerle 3<\/strong> milyar 314<\/strong> milyon 965<\/strong> bin varil ham petrol sevk edildi.<\/h1>\n

– Sabanc\u0131 Holding ve EON i\u015ftiraki Enerjisa Enerji A\u015e CEO\u2019su Ziya Erdem g\u00f6revinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a01<\/strong> Kas\u0131m 2019<\/strong> itibariyle Enerjisa Enerji CEO’lu\u011fu g\u00f6revini Murat P\u0131nar \u00fcstlendi.<\/h1>\n

– \u0130zmir Yenilenebilir Enerji Konferans\u0131, fabrika \u00e7at\u0131lar\u0131na kurulacak tesislerin en ekonomik yat\u0131r\u0131m alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve birer milli servet olabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/h1>\n

– Polat Enerji\u2019nin Ni\u011fde\u2019de kurdu\u011fu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck lisansl\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi santrali 26<\/strong> MW\u2019l\u0131k C\u0131ng\u0131ll\u0131\u00a0G\u00fcne\u015f Enerji Santrali elektrik \u00fcretmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/h1>\n

– Aksu Enerji \u00c7ayk\u00f6y HES i\u00e7in E\u00dcA\u015e\u2019a \u00f6dedi\u011fi sistem kullan\u0131m bedeli hakk\u0131ndaki davay\u0131 kazand\u0131 ve KDV dahil toplam 2<\/strong>.534<\/strong>.509<\/strong>,69<\/strong> liray\u0131 E\u00dcA\u015e\u2019tan tahsil etti.<\/h1>\n

– EnBW Almanya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck GES yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na al\u0131m garantisi sa\u011flamadan ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 315<\/strong>.64<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"333<\/strong>.34<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 18<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 19<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 260<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 00<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 01<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 327<\/strong>.55<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 5<\/strong>.02<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 24<\/strong>, linyit % 18<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 27<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 24<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 2<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP)<\/strong> a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 305<\/strong>.35<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 32,560<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 99<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 91<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 93<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 300<\/strong>.93<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 313<\/strong>.36<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 09<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 10<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 271<\/strong>.77<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak :00<\/strong> – 01<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 304<\/strong>.91<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.10<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 16<\/strong>.10<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,455<\/strong>.55<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 49,222<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan\u00a0g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Ceyhan Boru Hatt\u0131’n\u0131n son dura\u011f\u0131 Ceyhan il\u00e7esindeki Haydar Aliyev Deniz Terminali’nden 2006‘dan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[9602,58852,56811,52373,52374,49519,52375,42701,42490,52377,42485,42486,42484,46702,42488,42489,52376,1079,45271,50069,25180,61,34979,57202,53868,36029,53114,343,19638,7285,8304,39373,34980,39661,50387,39426,26353,52674,53647,130,8184,56562,19,42030,58851,41345,52379,54244,52259,148,56147,4881,2765,18,47575,422,35152,3455,58807,9839,26598,58850,4034,39082,16077,51890,54628,40290,1581,29230,2282,53902,33828,4899,11461,4487,39352,19119,1048,52378,34977,3733,6854,39351,846,26829,508,3504,37950],"views":476,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101089"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101089\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}