Current news about the emerging market is as follows: Brent oil’s barrel price decreased by 6.23 percent to $ 50.73 before Christmas holiday, Enerjisa Energy carried all the data infrastructure of its operations to more than 9 million customers in the data centers of Turkcell in Gebze and Ankara, Zorlu Energy Inc. has reduced the installed capacity of the natural gas fired cogeneration plant from 125,99 MWe to 49.53 MWe, the last coal mine in Germany, Bottrop has been shut down, PNE Wind has established a Köseler Wind Power Plant with 71.4 MW capacity in Ezine and Ayvacık districts of Çanakkale to operate.
The average market price per megawatt hour (MWh) for the day ahead electricity market was set at 238.89 TL. Looking at the distribution of prices, the maximum price of the day 293.09 TL / MWh in the
Compared to the previous day, the average market clearing price increased by TL 28.52. According to the data of the Finalized Daily Production Plan (KGUP), it is expected that natural gas will be 24%, lignite 14%, imported coal 22%, while hydro renewable energy will be 23%, wind 12% and geothermal 3%. On the other hand, the increase in prices can be explained by the increase in consumption demand due to weekdays and the expectation of increase in production in the wind farms. Production based Finalized Daily Production Plan planned for tomorrow is shown in the graph below.
Based on the Estimation Model * analysis, the average market clearing price is estimated to be 235.64 TL / MWh and the average consumption is estimated to be 35,485 MWh. The success rate of the model on the market clearing price is calculated as 79% per day, while the success rate for consumption is calculated as 99% per day, while success rate is calculated as 88% and 94% for consumption according to market swap price. Daily average consumption values for hourly and estimated market clearing prices and daily average consumption values that will take place on a weekly basis are shown in the graphs below.
The average market clearing price for the day after tomorrow is estimated at TL 296.95 / MWH. Accordingly, the maximum price of the day is expected to be 319.94 TL / MWh in the 11:00 – 12:00 hour range and the minimum price is 184.86 TL / MWh in the range of 03:00 – 04:00. The estimated average market clearance price at peak hours (17:00 – 22:00) can be calculated as 316.51 TL / MWh. Market swap price estimates for hourly are given in the chart below.
Organize Toptan Doğal Gaz Satış Piyasası (OTSP) dahilinde 01.12.2018 – 25.12.2018 tarihleri arası ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyatı (GRF) 1,455.65 TL/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, aynı tarihler arasında toplam gerçekleşen eşleşmelerin miktarı ise 88,013 x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. İlgili tarihler arasında günlük Gaz Referans Fiyatı (GRF) ile Eşleşme Miktarı verileri aşağıdaki grafikte yer almaktadır.
* Estimation Model; It was developed in MATLAB software development platform by using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) which is a statistical estimation method. The daily published market clearing price and actual consumption data are used in EPİAŞ Transparency Platform as input data in the model and all other used data. Please contact us to get detailed information about the model.
** Success Rate of Consumption; On the basis of weekly estimates made on consumption basis, since the report published on Sundays is not yet available, the success rate will be calculated on a daily basis and updated in the report.
Tümay Solak – Risk Management Specialist – tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist